Here are all of the Adjusted Efficiency Team Charts for the 2011 NBA regular season. These are adjusted for opponent (average for their whole season), rest-day-situation, and location. Here are links to each image (so as to avoid flipping through the slideshow): Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics Charlotte Bobcats Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Dallas Mavericks Denver … [Read more...]
There is a ! I’m putting together an NBA Playoffs preview; this is the first of the data for that: Here is a table of playoff bound teams and their season-long adjusted efficiency ratings. Ratings are adjusted for location, pace (obviously, since these are per 100 possessions), opponent (recursively) and rest day situation. Previous is … [Read more...]
In continuing my series of With-or-Without-You (WOWY) analyses, I will next look at my hometown Oklahoma City Thunder, one of the hottest teams going into the playoffs. In the first two posts on WOWY, I looked at Oklahoma City in January(before the trades), and yesterday I looked at the Bulls and their strength going into the playoffs. In the Bulls post, I also revised and expanded this method with regression to the mean and Bayesian weighting for best future prediction.
A couple of months ago, I introduced my method of With-or-Without-You(WOWY) for the NBA. This time, I’ll revise and expand upon the method, and take a pre-playoff look at the hottest team going: the Chicago Bulls.
As Kevin Pelton chronicled, the Bulls have actually been quite healthy this year–only Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer have missed significant time, among the regulars in the rotation. Kurt Thomas has missed time, also, but he has also been sat by Tom Thibodeau when healthy–complicating any analysis of WOWY. For this analysis, I’ll focus on Noah and Boozer.
I posted my NCAA Bayesian Ratings and methodology. Today I thought I’d update the numbers quickly and add a new twist. What is the objective in basketball? To win the game! When doing a predictive rating system (like this Bayesian method) or even trying to tell how good teams are over this season (KenPom’s ratings), … [Read more...]
Carmelo Anthony was FINALLY traded yesterday, in a mega 3-team deal. How did the teams make out? There are several good trade analyses around, but none of them are really focusing on the financial aspect. Kevin Pelton’s article is a good primer on the trade as a starting point, and Joe Treutlein at Hoopdata has … [Read more...]
It is fairly easy to construct a retrospective efficiency rating. Take the efficiencies for each game, correct for location and rest, and then solve using an OLS regression for each team’s true efficiency rating. Nice and neat. However, how should a predictive rating work? The best approach would be to adjust for what players are … [Read more...]
It’s been a while since I last put together the fully adjusted NBA efficiency rankings. Here are the latest ratings (prev is 1-13-2011, the last time I updated): If you will recall, I last time was puzzling over what exponent to use when minimizing |residuals|^n. I tried out a number of different exponents in out-of-sample … [Read more...]
Well, everyone else has an All-Star post up already: The actual All-Stars Mike G at APBR, with his eWins selections (also PER shown) (his thread inspired me to write this up) EvanZ, with his ezPM on the West and East All-Stars Kevin Pelton, with his WARP All-Stars John Hollinger’s look at ESPN Zach Lowe’s take … [Read more...]
The ASPM spreadsheet (download here) has a sheet for estimating a game’s results, based on team rest, location, and the rotation of players expected to play. For a quick example, I’ll look at the Magic vs. Heat game this evening. Here’s the sheet: I estimated the minutes each player would play based upon the rotations … [Read more...]