web analytics

Posts Tagged ‘ Advanced SPM ’

Visualization: 2012 VORP Treemap

January 27, 2012
By

Inspired by Evan Zamir’s use of a treemap to visualize WARP over at The City, I created a treemap to visualize ASPM VORP for the 2012 season-to-date.  I used Google Docs and the treemap-gviz widget to construct the visualization.  I used the latest iteration of the ASPM framework to compile the data, and selected...
Read more »

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | 2 Comments »

The Carmelo Trade

February 22, 2011
By
The Carmelo Trade

Carmelo Anthony was FINALLY traded yesterday, in a mega 3-team deal. How did the teams make out? There are several good trade analyses around, but none of them are really focusing on the financial aspect. Kevin Pelton’s article is a good primer on the trade as a starting point, and Joe Treutlein at Hoopdata...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | 9 Comments »

ASPM VORP All-Stars 2011

February 4, 2011
By
ASPM VORP All-Stars 2011

Well, everyone else has an All-Star post up already: The actual All-Stars Mike G at APBR, with his eWins selections (also PER shown) (his thread inspired me to write this up) EvanZ, with his ezPM on the West and East All-Stars Kevin Pelton, with his WARP All-Stars John Hollinger’s look at ESPN Zach Lowe’s...
Read more »

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Advanced SPM, NBA Stats | 9 Comments »

ASPM Prediction: Magic vs. Heat

February 3, 2011
By
ASPM Prediction: Magic vs. Heat

The ASPM spreadsheet (download here) has a sheet for estimating a game’s results, based on team rest, location, and the rotation of players expected to play. For a quick example, I’ll look at the Magic vs. Heat game this evening. Here’s the sheet: I estimated the minutes each player would play based upon the...
Read more »

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Advanced SPM, ASPM Prediction, NBA Stats | No Comments »

ASPM Box Score: Thunder-Heat

January 31, 2011
By
ASPM Box Score: Thunder-Heat

Yesterday’s Thunder-Heat game was a fun game to watch and a great game to investigate. Oklahoma City started out with a significant advantage in this game: OKC was at home (worth 3.24 pts/100 poss) and was playing on 1 day of rest (+1.94), while Miami was playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and...
Read more »

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Advanced SPM, ASPM Box Score, NBA Stats | 6 Comments »

ASPM Box Score: Spurs-Celtics

January 6, 2011
By
ASPM Box Score: Spurs-Celtics

Recently, I developed a method for analyzing single games through the Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus (ASPM) lens. Basically, in order to keep the data in the range where the weights for the stats makes sense (some of the weights are nonlinear), I add several games worth of average stats to the player’s stat line. I...
Read more »

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Advanced SPM, ASPM Box Score, NBA Stats | 3 Comments »

DSMok1 on Twitter

To-Do List

  1. Google Motion Charts for each position, including salary and contract value
  2. Discussion of salary/contract value
  3. Aging curves for individual components (ORB%, Blk%, etc.)
  4. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  5. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  6. Publication of spreadsheets used
  7. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  8. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  9. Learn ridge regression
  10. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  11. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  12. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  13. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  14. Recursive WOWY Team Ratings
  15. Lineup Bayesian APM
  16. Lineup RAPM