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Posts Tagged ‘ Statistics ’

ASPM Notes and Viz Update

December 6, 2012
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ASPM Notes and Viz Update

I have added another pane to my 2012-13 ASPM/VORP Tableau Visualization, allowing a better look at the distribution of talent across positions in the NBA. Powered by Tableau The new position vs. ASPM chart is quite interesting: there is an amazing lack of talent/performance right now at the 2,3, and 4 positions outside of...
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2012-2013 ASPM & VORP Released

November 14, 2012
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A quick note: 2012-2013 ASPM & VORP have now been released! See the new 2013 ASPM page. A few early notes: The cream is already rising to the top after 4 to 8 games for each team. LeBron James is #1 in total VORP, with an ASPM almost exactly the same as last year....
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Overrated and Underrated via RAPM (Part 2)

November 10, 2012
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Overrated and Underrated via RAPM (Part 2)

A week ago, I discussed overrated and underrated players over the past 12 years, evaluated by comparing popular box-score stats with Jeremias Engelmann’s 12 year average Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM) dataset. For a primer on the virtues of RAPM (in large samples), see my article reviewing the state-of-the-art of adjusted plus/minus and stabilization. This...
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Posted in NBA Stats | 6 Comments »

RAPM vs. MPG (A Look at Replacement Level)

October 30, 2012
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RAPM vs. MPG (A Look at Replacement Level)

One of the big ongoing questions in NBA stats and player valuation is where to set “replacement level”.  I believe an empirical approach to determining that level is best. Jeremias Engelmann has produced an outstanding resource in his 12 year average RAPM data.  Since so many years are used, it is quite stable; however,...
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2013 NBA ASPM Team Projections

October 29, 2012
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Here are my 2013 NBA Team Projections, based on my ASPM player projections. For playing time, I roughly used ESPN’s Fantasy Projections, tweaked so each team totaled 475% of the minutes (I assumed the rest of the minutes would go to replacement level (-3.25) players). Here are my regular season projections: I have updated...
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Posted in NBA Stats | 9 Comments »

Quick Chart: ASPM vs RAPM, 2003-2011

October 3, 2012
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Quick Chart: ASPM vs RAPM, 2003-2011

This is some old data, used in the derivation & analysis of Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus (ASPM), but I thought I’d repost it here in a more sortable/filterable/useable form. Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM) data from Jeremias Engelmann. Powered by Tableau
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2012 Basic NFL Predictions

September 5, 2012
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The NFL season begins tonight, and there are predictions flying everywhere. I thought I’d take a basic analytical approach and produce a baseline projection. If your predictions can’t beat this (dumb) system, you aren’t very good at predictions! What got me started down this trail was Bill Barnwell’s article on Grantland breaking down some...
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Posted in Football | 4 Comments »

Computer Component Return Rates

June 1, 2012
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Computer Component Return Rates

This is a completely non-sports post, but I had the data and visualization (created for my own use) and thought I should post it online. I have compiled, from the Hardware.fr series on return rates of computer components, a database of component return rates. Having that data, I, of course, felt the need to...
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Adjusted 4-Factors Visualization

February 22, 2012
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Adjusted 4-Factors Visualization

Evan Zamir at The City recently unveiled Adjusted 4-Factors at the individual level, using a 2.5 year sample size and a Ridge Regression approach. The results are very interesting. Here, I’m simply converting his initial work into an interactive visualization. Powered by Tableau
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Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »

WOWY: NBA Finals Edition

May 31, 2011
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It’s time for the With-or-Without-You analysis of the NBA Finals teams: Dallas and Miami. For this review, I will consider a player to not have played (i.e. “Without You”) if the player played 20% or less of their average MPG. This allows us to look into the coach’s rotation decisions a bit more, while...
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Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »

DSMok1 on Twitter

To-Do List

  1. Salary and contract value discussions and charts
  2. Multi-year APM/RAPM with aging incorporated
  3. Revise ASPM based on multi-year RAPM with aging
  4. ASPM within-year stability/cross validation
  5. Historical ASPM Tableau visualizations
  6. Create Excel VBA recursive web scraping tutorial
  7. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  8. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  9. Publication of spreadsheets used
  10. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  11. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  12. Learn ridge regression
  13. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  14. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  15. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  16. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  17. Lineup Bayesian APM
  18. Lineup RAPM
  19. Learn SQL