Evan Zamir at The City recently unveiled Adjusted 4-Factors at the individual level, using a 2.5 year sample size and a Ridge Regression approach. The results are very interesting. Here, I’m simply converting his initial work into an interactive visualization. Powered by Tableau
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Tags: NBA, Player Ratings, RAPM, Statistics, Visualization
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
It’s time for the With-or-Without-You analysis of the NBA Finals teams: Dallas and Miami. For this review, I will consider a player to not have played (i.e. “Without You”) if the player played 20% or less of their average MPG. This allows us to look into the coach’s rotation decisions a bit more, while...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
This is just a quick chart dump, based upon Neil Paine’s research at Basketball Reference:
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Tags: Charts, NBA, Statistics, Team Ratings, Visualization, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
As I prepare to release my first work based on the Adjusted Plus/Minus and derivative methods, I felt it would be wise to write a plain-English review of the state-of-the-art of Adjusted Plus/Minus and its derivatives, or at least what is known in the public domain. What is Plus/Minus? Plus/Minus, at its core, simply...
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Tags: Adjusted +/-, Player Ratings, RAPM, Stat Theory, Statistics, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 10 Comments »
Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:) CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL 98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7% CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL 4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to...
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Tags: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »
I’m working on a new metric to quickly measure a player’s single-game contribution (a slightly more complex “game score”). I’ve tabulated the results for every game played this year, and that lets me do this: Here are the brightest stars in the NBA, by dominant superstar performances this year. I’m giving 3 points for...
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Tags: Box Score Analysis, NBA, Player Ratings, Statistics, Visualization
Posted in NBA Stats | 6 Comments »
Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34%...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »
A collection of With-or-Without-You tables for playoff teams. All regressions were stabilized with about 30 games worth of “average for the team” performance. Not all regressions have the last game of the season included. Oklahoma City Thunder: WOWY equally weighted over season Eff Mar Off Eff Def Eff Games Equiv+/- Team 9.4 8.1 -1.3...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, Team Ratings, Trade Analysis, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Rankings, NBA Stats, WOWY | No Comments »
Here are all of the Adjusted Efficiency Team Charts for the 2011 NBA regular season. These are adjusted for opponent (average for their whole season), rest-day-situation, and location. Here are links to each image (so as to avoid flipping through the slideshow): Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics Charlotte Bobcats Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Dallas Mavericks...
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Tags: Charts, Gallery, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings
Posted in NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Rankings, NBA Stats | 2 Comments »
There is a ! I’m putting together an NBA Playoffs preview; this is the first of the data for that: Here is a table of playoff bound teams and their season-long adjusted efficiency ratings. Ratings are adjusted for location, pace (obviously, since these are per 100 possessions), opponent (recursively) and rest day situation. Previous...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Google Motion Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings
Posted in NBA Rankings, NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
