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NCAA Advanced Statistical Plus-Minus and VORP

Advanced Statistical Plus-Minus, while originally derived based on NBA statistics, should work well for NCAA basketball as well. Since NCAA men’s basketball statistics are readily available from http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/ , I have adapted my spreadsheets to use that site as a data source to generate NCAA ASPM.

Since there really isn’t a level playing field in the NCAA, looking at VORP (value over replacement player) is not exactly a valid concept, nor meaningful. I would recommend rather focusing purely on the ASPM values and simply keeping playing time in mind.

The full Excel Spreadsheet, with macros for updating (the last 3 seasons–2010 had a different team rating source) is located here: ASPM NCAA Spreadsheet.

NOTE: this is NOT Adjusted Plus/Minus. This is an advanced form of Statistical Plus/Minus, and as such is based on box-score stats (and has the benefits and limitations thereof).

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To-Do List

  1. Salary and contract value discussions and charts
  2. Multi-year APM/RAPM with aging incorporated
  3. Revise ASPM based on multi-year RAPM with aging
  4. ASPM within-year stability/cross validation
  5. Historical ASPM Tableau visualizations
  6. Create Excel VBA recursive web scraping tutorial
  7. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  8. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  9. Publication of spreadsheets used
  10. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  11. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  12. Learn ridge regression
  13. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  14. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  15. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  16. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  17. Lineup Bayesian APM
  18. Lineup RAPM
  19. Learn SQL