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Adjusted 4-Factors Visualization

February 22, 2012
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Adjusted 4-Factors Visualization

Evan Zamir at The City recently unveiled Adjusted 4-Factors at the individual level, using a 2.5 year sample size and a Ridge Regression approach. The results are very interesting. Here, I’m simply converting his initial work into an interactive visualization. Powered by Tableau
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Visualization: 2012 VORP Treemap

January 27, 2012
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Inspired by Evan Zamir’s use of a treemap to visualize WARP over at The City, I created a treemap to visualize ASPM VORP for the 2012 season-to-date.  I used Google Docs and the treemap-gviz widget to construct the visualization.  I used the latest iteration of the ASPM framework to compile the data, and selected for display only those players who had played a significant...
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WOWY: NBA Finals Edition

May 31, 2011
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It’s time for the With-or-Without-You analysis of the NBA Finals teams: Dallas and Miami. For this review, I will consider a player to not have played (i.e. “Without You”) if the player played 20% or less of their average MPG. This allows us to look into the coach’s rotation decisions a bit more, while still maintaining the spirit of the WOWY analysis. For Dallas,...
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Bayesian Power Ratings: NBA Finals Edition

May 27, 2011
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I have updated my Bayesian Power Ratings, using the techniques described in previous posts: On Bayesian Predictive Efficiency Ratings NBA Final Regular Season Bayesian Efficiency Ratings Here are the Bayesian Ratings, updated through the end of the conference finals:
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Chart: With or Without Inefficient Scorers

May 23, 2011
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Chart: With or Without Inefficient Scorers

This is just a quick chart dump, based upon Neil Paine’s research at Basketball Reference:
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A Review of Adjusted Plus/Minus and Stabilization

May 20, 2011
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A Review of Adjusted Plus/Minus and Stabilization

As I prepare to release my first work based on the Adjusted Plus/Minus and derivative methods, I felt it would be wise to write a plain-English review of the state-of-the-art of Adjusted Plus/Minus and its derivatives, or at least what is known in the public domain. What is Plus/Minus? Plus/Minus, at its core, simply compares how the team fares with the player on the...
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Round 2 Predictions

April 30, 2011
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Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:) CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL 98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7% CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL 4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to 0 5.4% 4 to 1 35.8% 4 to 1 22.4%...
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Visualization: The NBA’s 750 Best Offensive Games

April 28, 2011
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Visualization: The NBA’s 750 Best Offensive Games

Again using my “game value” metrics, here are the 750 best offensive performances this year, in graphical form: Notes: Some players are in there many times: Dwyane Wade has 17, though none are very easy to see.  Chris Paul and Lebron James had 16 each.  Kevin Love has 14, Kevin Durant 13 (wait–this is missing last night… should be 14), Carmelo Anthony has 13,...
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To-Do List

  1. Google Motion Charts for each position, including salary and contract value
  2. Discussion of salary/contract value
  3. Aging curves for individual components (ORB%, Blk%, etc.)
  4. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  5. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  6. Publication of spreadsheets used
  7. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  8. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  9. Learn ridge regression
  10. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  11. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  12. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  13. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  14. Recursive WOWY Team Ratings
  15. Lineup Bayesian APM
  16. Lineup RAPM