It’s time for the With-or-Without-You analysis of the NBA Finals teams: Dallas and Miami. For this review, I will consider a player to not have played (i.e. “Without You”) if the player played 20% or less of their average MPG. This allows us to look into the coach’s rotation decisions a bit more, while...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
I have updated my Bayesian Power Ratings, using the techniques described in previous posts:
On Bayesian Predictive Efficiency Ratings
NBA Final Regular Season Bayesian Efficiency Ratings
Here are the Bayesian Ratings, updated through the end of the conference finals:
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Google Motion Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Team Ratings, Visualization
Posted in NBA Stats | 2 Comments »
Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34%...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »
A collection of With-or-Without-You tables for playoff teams. All regressions were stabilized with about 30 games worth of “average for the team” performance. Not all regressions have the last game of the season included. Oklahoma City Thunder: WOWY equally weighted over season Eff Mar Off Eff Def Eff Games Equiv+/- Team 9.4 8.1 -1.3...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, Team Ratings, Trade Analysis, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Rankings, NBA Stats, WOWY | No Comments »
There is a ! I’m putting together an NBA Playoffs preview; this is the first of the data for that: Here is a table of playoff bound teams and their season-long adjusted efficiency ratings. Ratings are adjusted for location, pace (obviously, since these are per 100 possessions), opponent (recursively) and rest day situation. Previous...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Google Motion Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings
Posted in NBA Rankings, NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
In continuing my series of With-or-Without-You (WOWY) analyses, I will next look at my hometown Oklahoma City Thunder, one of the hottest teams going into the playoffs. In the first two posts on WOWY, I looked at Oklahoma City in January(before the trades), and yesterday I looked at the Bulls and their strength...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, Team Ratings, Trade Analysis, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Stats, WOWY | 4 Comments »
A couple of months ago, I introduced my method of With-or-Without-You(WOWY) for the NBA. This time, I'll revise and expand upon the method, and take a pre-playoff look at the hottest team going: the Chicago Bulls.
As Kevin Pelton chronicled, the Bulls have actually been quite healthy this year--only Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Stats, WOWY | 5 Comments »
That’s right, golf. I’m taking up where Ken Pomeroy left off. A year or two ago, he developed a rating system for golfers–basically, he created a huge regression of all players and all specific rounds at tournaments. Each round was assigned a level of difficulty, and each player was assigned an overall rating. His...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Golf, Major Championships, PGA, Player Ratings, Stat Theory, Statistics
Posted in Golf | 11 Comments »
VCU and Butler have continued their run. Before the tournament, I had them highly because they elevated their games in the regular season when playing good opponents. They have both continued that and increased that trend. One confounding issue now with adding the “Raising their Game” (“Ag25″ in the table below) bonus is that...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NCAA Basketball, NCAA Tournament, Statistics, Team Ratings
Posted in NCAA Basketball | No Comments »
Well, the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is in the books. I don’t have much time to post, so I’ll make it quick: Predictions did fairly well. In the 8 closest 1st-round games by my pregame predictions (averaging a 52.72% favorite) my stats went only 25%–otherwise, everything matched up really well. The other...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NCAA Tournament, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings
Posted in NCAA Basketball | No Comments »
