It’s time for the With-or-Without-You analysis of the NBA Finals teams: Dallas and Miami. For this review, I will consider a player to not have played (i.e. “Without You”) if the player played 20% or less of their average MPG. This allows us to look into the coach’s rotation decisions a bit more, while...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
This is just a quick chart dump, based upon Neil Paine’s research at Basketball Reference:
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Tags: Charts, NBA, Statistics, Team Ratings, Visualization, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
As I prepare to release my first work based on the Adjusted Plus/Minus and derivative methods, I felt it would be wise to write a plain-English review of the state-of-the-art of Adjusted Plus/Minus and its derivatives, or at least what is known in the public domain. What is Plus/Minus? Plus/Minus, at its core, simply...
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Tags: Adjusted +/-, Player Ratings, RAPM, Stat Theory, Statistics, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 12 Comments »
Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:) CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL 98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7% CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL 4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to...
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Tags: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »
Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34%...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »
A collection of With-or-Without-You tables for playoff teams. All regressions were stabilized with about 30 games worth of “average for the team” performance. Not all regressions have the last game of the season included. Oklahoma City Thunder: WOWY equally weighted over season Eff Mar Off Eff Def Eff Games Equiv+/- Team 9.4 8.1 -1.3...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, Team Ratings, Trade Analysis, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Rankings, NBA Stats, WOWY | No Comments »
In continuing my series of With-or-Without-You (WOWY) analyses, I will next look at my hometown Oklahoma City Thunder, one of the hottest teams going into the playoffs. In the first two posts on WOWY, I looked at Oklahoma City in January(before the trades), and yesterday I looked at the Bulls and their strength...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, Team Ratings, Trade Analysis, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Stats, WOWY | 4 Comments »
A couple of months ago, I introduced my method of With-or-Without-You(WOWY) for the NBA. This time, I'll revise and expand upon the method, and take a pre-playoff look at the hottest team going: the Chicago Bulls.
As Kevin Pelton chronicled, the Bulls have actually been quite healthy this year--only Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Stats, WOWY | 5 Comments »
The concept of With-or-Without-You is very basic. If you are playing, is our team better or worse? If the team is worse with you available, then that’s a really bad sign! It’s the core concept behind such basketball metrics as +/-, Statistical Plus/Minus and Advanced Plus/Minus. In baseball, Tom Tango and MGL work with...
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Tags: NBA, Player Ratings, Stat Theory, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Stats, WOWY | 4 Comments »
