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Posts Tagged ‘ NFL Football ’

NFL: Adjusted Points per Possession

January 4, 2013
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NFL: Adjusted Points per Possession

As the NFL playoffs approach, I was looking around for some good, adjusted performance data on the teams. In the NBA, we would immediately look at adjusted efficiencies–Points per 100 Possessions, adjusted for opponent. That data isn’t available in the NFL; in fact, it is hard to locate data on possession-based stats at all....
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2012 Basic NFL Predictions

September 5, 2012
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The NFL season begins tonight, and there are predictions flying everywhere. I thought I’d take a basic analytical approach and produce a baseline projection. If your predictions can’t beat this (dumb) system, you aren’t very good at predictions! What got me started down this trail was Bill Barnwell’s article on Grantland breaking down some...
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To-Do List

  1. Salary and contract value discussions and charts
  2. Multi-year APM/RAPM with aging incorporated
  3. Revise ASPM based on multi-year RAPM with aging
  4. ASPM within-year stability/cross validation
  5. Historical ASPM Tableau visualizations
  6. Create Excel VBA recursive web scraping tutorial
  7. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  8. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  9. Publication of spreadsheets used
  10. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  11. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  12. Learn ridge regression
  13. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  14. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  15. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  16. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  17. Lineup Bayesian APM
  18. Lineup RAPM
  19. Learn SQL