web analytics

Posts Tagged ‘ Projections ’

2013 NBA ASPM Team Projections

October 29, 2012
By

Here are my 2013 NBA Team Projections, based on my ASPM player projections. For playing time, I roughly used ESPN’s Fantasy Projections, tweaked so each team totaled 475% of the minutes (I assumed the rest of the minutes would go to replacement level (-3.25) players). Here are my regular season projections: I have updated...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | 9 Comments »

2012 Basic NFL Predictions

September 5, 2012
By

The NFL season begins tonight, and there are predictions flying everywhere. I thought I’d take a basic analytical approach and produce a baseline projection. If your predictions can’t beat this (dumb) system, you aren’t very good at predictions! What got me started down this trail was Bill Barnwell’s article on Grantland breaking down some...
Read more »

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Football | 4 Comments »

Round 2 Predictions

April 30, 2011
By

Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:) CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL 98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7% CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL 4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »

Playoff Odds 2011

April 16, 2011
By

Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34%...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »

Tightened Rotations

April 16, 2011
By

After a ton of math and fudging, I’ve come up with these estimates for how much a “tightened rotation” will help each team in the playoffs. I took close games between playoff teams in the past 1.5 months, figured out the top rotation (MPG/player) for each team when everyone’s healthy, and took the max...
Read more »

Tags: , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | 3 Comments »

NBA Final Regular Season Bayesian Ratings

April 15, 2011
By

There is a !  I’m putting together an NBA Playoffs preview; this is the first of the data for that: Here is a table of playoff bound teams and their season-long adjusted efficiency ratings. Ratings are adjusted for location, pace (obviously, since these are per 100 possessions), opponent (recursively) and rest day situation. Previous...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Rankings, NBA Stats | 1 Comment »

Sweet 16 Update

March 23, 2011
By

Well, the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is in the books.  I don’t have much time to post, so I’ll make it quick: Predictions did fairly well. In the 8 closest 1st-round games by my pregame predictions (averaging a 52.72% favorite) my stats went only 25%–otherwise, everything matched up really well.  The other...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in NCAA Basketball | No Comments »

On Crowds and Contrarian Picks

March 17, 2011
By
On Crowds and Contrarian Picks

If you are choosing NCAA tournament picks in a LARGE group (like ESPN), then, if possible, you need to account for what the masses have chosen in making your own selections.  Fortunately, ESPN publicly shows what everyone has picked–and that lets us account for them. As the number of people approaches infinity, the formula...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in NCAA Basketball | No Comments »

The Carmelo Trade

February 22, 2011
By
The Carmelo Trade

Carmelo Anthony was FINALLY traded yesterday, in a mega 3-team deal. How did the teams make out? There are several good trade analyses around, but none of them are really focusing on the financial aspect. Kevin Pelton’s article is a good primer on the trade as a starting point, and Joe Treutlein at Hoopdata...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | 9 Comments »

Bayesian Efficiency Ratings: NCAA Basketball

February 18, 2011
By

A few days ago, I put up a massive post on . Nathan Walker (the Basketball Distribution) commented that I should apply the system to NCAA basketball, and so I have. Thanks to Ken Pomeroy’s incredible NCAA basketball database, the data was quite easy to obtain. Since he already compiles a fully adjusted efficiency...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Rankings, NCAA Basketball | 1 Comment »

DSMok1 on Twitter

To-Do List

  1. Salary and contract value discussions and charts
  2. Multi-year APM/RAPM with aging incorporated
  3. Revise ASPM based on multi-year RAPM with aging
  4. ASPM within-year stability/cross validation
  5. Historical ASPM Tableau visualizations
  6. Create Excel VBA recursive web scraping tutorial
  7. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  8. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  9. Publication of spreadsheets used
  10. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  11. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  12. Learn ridge regression
  13. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  14. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  15. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  16. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  17. Lineup Bayesian APM
  18. Lineup RAPM
  19. Learn SQL