After a ton of math and fudging, I’ve come up with these estimates for how much a “tightened rotation” will help each team in the playoffs. I took close games between playoff teams in the past 1.5 months, figured out the top rotation (MPG/player) for each team when everyone’s healthy, and took the max of that and the average of all playoff teams’ average top rotation minutes split. Then, I compared that tight rotation with the average MPG for each player over the season. I truncated the list when each rotation reached 240 minutes total. Then, to see how much that helps each team, I used ASPM and RAPM for each player with that MPG and calculated the team sum both for the short rotation and for the idealized long rotation.
Yeah, it’s a bit clunky, but it sorta makes sense.
I still can’t get the Lakers to look dominant, though…
I did it for every team above -1.25 Efficiency differential. I forgot that the Pacers were below that (!) so I guess I’ll use the average for them!
Yeah, it doesn’t help the really deep teams to tighten their rotations. Some of those numbers look a bit odd. I don’t have time at this point to check them, though!