web analytics

NBA Stats

Historical NBA ASPM (and Hall Rating) Released

June 14, 2013
By
Historical NBA ASPM (and Hall Rating) Released

At long last, historical Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus and VORP has been released! The permanent page is located at http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/aspm-and-vorp/historical-nba-aspm/. Reminder: the full statistical derivation for Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus and Value over Replacement Player is available for critique. In addition, this visualization is including Hall Rating, a new stat modeled after the Hall of Stats’...
Read more »

Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »

NCAA Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus Released

February 20, 2013
By
NCAA Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus Released

Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus (ASPM) is now available for NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball! ASPM was originally derived for the NBA, but the weights found for each event, as well as the methods for adjusting for opposition, should be equally valid for college basketball. The full Tableau visualization will be permanently located at http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/aspm-and-vorp/ncaa-advanced-statistical-plus-minus-and-vorp/, under...
Read more »

Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »

ASPM Notes and Viz Update

December 6, 2012
By
ASPM Notes and Viz Update

I have added another pane to my 2012-13 ASPM/VORP Tableau Visualization, allowing a better look at the distribution of talent across positions in the NBA. Powered by Tableau The new position vs. ASPM chart is quite interesting: there is an amazing lack of talent/performance right now at the 2,3, and 4 positions outside of...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »

2012-2013 ASPM & VORP Released

November 14, 2012
By

A quick note: 2012-2013 ASPM & VORP have now been released! See the new 2013 ASPM page. A few early notes: The cream is already rising to the top after 4 to 8 games for each team. LeBron James is #1 in total VORP, with an ASPM almost exactly the same as last year....
Read more »

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »

Overrated and Underrated via RAPM (Part 2)

November 10, 2012
By
Overrated and Underrated via RAPM (Part 2)

A week ago, I discussed overrated and underrated players over the past 12 years, evaluated by comparing popular box-score stats with Jeremias Engelmann’s 12 year average Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM) dataset. For a primer on the virtues of RAPM (in large samples), see my article reviewing the state-of-the-art of adjusted plus/minus and stabilization. This...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | 6 Comments »

Underrated and Overrated Via RAPM

November 2, 2012
By
Underrated and Overrated Via RAPM

In several of my recent articles, I have been using Jeremias Engelmann’s 12 year average RAPM dataset. Here, I will look at what players may have been underrated or overrated by even advanced stats over the course of the last 12 years. I decided to use PER and WS/48 as my advanced stats to...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | 10 Comments »

RAPM vs. MPG (A Look at Replacement Level)

October 30, 2012
By
RAPM vs. MPG (A Look at Replacement Level)

One of the big ongoing questions in NBA stats and player valuation is where to set “replacement level”.  I believe an empirical approach to determining that level is best. Jeremias Engelmann has produced an outstanding resource in his 12 year average RAPM data.  Since so many years are used, it is quite stable; however,...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »

2013 NBA ASPM Team Projections

October 29, 2012
By

Here are my 2013 NBA Team Projections, based on my ASPM player projections. For playing time, I roughly used ESPN’s Fantasy Projections, tweaked so each team totaled 475% of the minutes (I assumed the rest of the minutes would go to replacement level (-3.25) players). Here are my regular season projections: I have updated...
Read more »

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | 9 Comments »

Quick Chart: ASPM vs RAPM, 2003-2011

October 3, 2012
By
Quick Chart: ASPM vs RAPM, 2003-2011

This is some old data, used in the derivation & analysis of Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus (ASPM), but I thought I’d repost it here in a more sortable/filterable/useable form. Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM) data from Jeremias Engelmann. Powered by Tableau
Read more »

Tags: , , , , , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »

2012 NBA VORP per Game Vizualization

June 5, 2012
By

Just playing around with Tagxedo. Here are the top 100 players of the 2012 NBA regular season, as measured by VORP-Gm (VORP per game played), only including play for the team the player ended up with (if traded).
Read more »

Tags: , , ,
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »

DSMok1 on Twitter

To-Do List

  1. Salary and contract value discussions and charts
  2. Multi-year APM/RAPM with aging incorporated
  3. Revise ASPM based on multi-year RAPM with aging
  4. ASPM within-year stability/cross validation
  5. Historical ASPM Tableau visualizations
  6. Create Excel VBA recursive web scraping tutorial
  7. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  8. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  9. Publication of spreadsheets used
  10. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  11. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  12. Learn ridge regression
  13. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  14. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  15. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  16. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  17. Lineup Bayesian APM
  18. Lineup RAPM
  19. Learn SQL