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ASPM Notes and Viz Update

December 6, 2012

I have added another pane to my 2012-13 ASPM/VORP Tableau Visualization, allowing a better look at the distribution of talent across positions in the NBA.

The new position vs. ASPM chart is quite interesting: there is an amazing lack of talent/performance right now at the 2,3, and 4 positions outside of a few elite players. There’s Kobe Bryant, Jason Kidd (who’s sort of playing like a 2), LeBron James, and Kevin Durant…. and no one else in the same ballpark. They are all in the plus 6 to plus 7 range, while there are no other wings above +3.5 (Kawhi Leonard). Just a massive gap.

Other interesting notes:

  • The elite players have separated from the pack, for the most part.  The players above +5 ASPM: Chris Paul, LeBron James, Jason Kidd, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Russell Westbrook, and… Mike ConleyKyle Lowry just misses the +5 mark, but no one else is above +4.3 (Tyson Chandler).
  • Kevin Durant and LeBron James are neck-and-neck right now, both dominant.  LeBron is a hair better per minute, KD is playing a few more minutes.  Versus last year, LeBron has dropped quite a bit, from +8.8 to +7.0, while KD has risen from +5.1 to +6.8 ASPM.
  • Exploring the position vs. ASPM chart, by team–the Detroit Pistons are ridiculously lopsided.  They have two very good centers (Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe) and nobody even remotely decent in the backcourt.
  • Memphis, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City, on the other hand, are very balanced across the whole positional spectrum, with good to great players everywhere on the floor.
  • Lonely superstars on poor teams: Kyle Lowry and Anderson Varejao (though Kyrie Irving is coming along).
  • If you neglect Jason Kidd, there is a very tight race for second-best shooting guard in the league behind Kobe: Dwyane Wade, James Harden, Manu Ginobili, Tony Allen, Ray Allen, and Kevin Martin are all very close, though their skillsets vary widely.
  • Rookie of the year is a three-horse race: Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, and Damian Lillard.

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To-Do List

  1. Salary and contract value discussions and charts
  2. Multi-year APM/RAPM with aging incorporated
  3. Revise ASPM based on multi-year RAPM with aging
  4. ASPM within-year stability/cross validation
  5. Historical ASPM Tableau visualizations
  6. Create Excel VBA recursive web scraping tutorial
  7. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  8. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  9. Publication of spreadsheets used
  10. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  11. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  12. Learn ridge regression
  13. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  14. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  15. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  16. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  17. Lineup Bayesian APM
  18. Lineup RAPM
  19. Learn SQL