As the NFL playoffs approach, I was looking around for some good, adjusted performance data on the teams. In the NBA, we would immediately look at adjusted efficiencies–Points per 100 Possessions, adjusted for opponent. That data isn’t available in the NFL; in fact, it is hard to locate data on possession-based stats at all....
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Tags: NFL Football, Tableau Charts, Team Ratings
Posted in NFL | No Comments »
Here are my 2013 NBA Team Projections, based on my ASPM player projections. For playing time, I roughly used ESPN’s Fantasy Projections, tweaked so each team totaled 475% of the minutes (I assumed the rest of the minutes would go to replacement level (-3.25) players). Here are my regular season projections: I have updated...
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Tags: Advanced SPM, NBA, Player Ratings, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings
Posted in NBA Stats | 9 Comments »
It’s time for the With-or-Without-You analysis of the NBA Finals teams: Dallas and Miami. For this review, I will consider a player to not have played (i.e. “Without You”) if the player played 20% or less of their average MPG. This allows us to look into the coach’s rotation decisions a bit more, while...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
I have updated my Bayesian Power Ratings, using the techniques described in previous posts:
On Bayesian Predictive Efficiency Ratings
NBA Final Regular Season Bayesian Efficiency Ratings
Here are the Bayesian Ratings, updated through the end of the conference finals:
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Google Motion Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Team Ratings, Visualization
Posted in NBA Stats | 2 Comments »
This is just a quick chart dump, based upon Neil Paine’s research at Basketball Reference:
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Tags: Charts, NBA, Statistics, Team Ratings, Visualization, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:) CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL 98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7% CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL 4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to...
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Tags: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »
Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34%...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »
After a ton of math and fudging, I’ve come up with these estimates for how much a “tightened rotation” will help each team in the playoffs. I took close games between playoff teams in the past 1.5 months, figured out the top rotation (MPG/player) for each team when everyone’s healthy, and took the max...
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Tags: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Team Ratings
Posted in NBA Stats | 3 Comments »
A collection of With-or-Without-You tables for playoff teams. All regressions were stabilized with about 30 games worth of “average for the team” performance. Not all regressions have the last game of the season included. Oklahoma City Thunder: WOWY equally weighted over season Eff Mar Off Eff Def Eff Games Equiv+/- Team 9.4 8.1 -1.3...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, Team Ratings, Trade Analysis, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Rankings, NBA Stats, WOWY | No Comments »
Here are all of the Adjusted Efficiency Team Charts for the 2011 NBA regular season. These are adjusted for opponent (average for their whole season), rest-day-situation, and location. Here are links to each image (so as to avoid flipping through the slideshow): Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics Charlotte Bobcats Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Dallas Mavericks...
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Tags: Charts, Gallery, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings
Posted in NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Rankings, NBA Stats | 2 Comments »
