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Round 2 Predictions

April 30, 2011
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Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:)

CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL
98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7%
CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL
4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to 0 5.4%
4 to 1 35.8% 4 to 1 22.4% 4 to 1 21.2% 4 to 1 14.7%
4 to 2 12.0% 4 to 2 16.7% 4 to 2 16.0% 4 to 2 12.7%
4 to 3 5.3% 4 to 3 20.4% 4 to 3 20.8% 4 to 3 19.5%
3 to 4 0.7% 3 to 4 9.5% 3 to 4 10.0% 3 to 4 12.7%
2 to 4 0.7% 2 to 4 12.4% 2 to 4 13.7% 2 to 4 19.0%
1 to 4 0.2% 1 to 4 5.4% 1 to 4 6.0% 1 to 4 10.1%
0 to 4 0.1% 0 to 4 2.8% 0 to 4 3.2% 0 to 4 5.9%
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To-Do List

  1. Google Motion Charts for each position, including salary and contract value
  2. Discussion of salary/contract value
  3. Aging curves for individual components (ORB%, Blk%, etc.)
  4. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  5. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  6. Publication of spreadsheets used
  7. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  8. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  9. Learn ridge regression
  10. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  11. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  12. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  13. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  14. Recursive WOWY Team Ratings
  15. Lineup Bayesian APM
  16. Lineup RAPM