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Methods of contacting me:

  • Comments on this site
  • Twitter (DSMok1)
  • Email: my twitter username at Hotmail.com

12 Responses to Contact

  1. Sean on June 16, 2011 at 7:44 am

    I didn’t see a post regarding the 2011 US Open. Considering your work proved to be spot on for the Masters I thought for sure you would have done another “prediction”. I know the NBA Finals take precedence and you put forth a lot of time towards that endeavor. Hope you consider the British Open and PGA if you have the time. Thanks for your efforts! Great work and I love the side. Thank you.


    • DanielM on June 16, 2011 at 8:00 am

      Yes, I’ve been really busy lately, with real world stuff. Moving across the country soon. I will likely have less time to work on this site as I transition to a new job. I have done some more work with golf, but haven’t had a chance to follow through with it. I have improved the system–Charl Schwartzel really shouldn’t have been favored; that was an artifact of a lack of connectivity within the regression! (That worked out pretty nicely, though.)

  2. Michael on April 13, 2012 at 1:44 pm

    Do you have ASPM for past years?

  3. Michael on April 20, 2012 at 1:49 pm

    Thanks, and what is Contrib?

    • DanielM on April 20, 2012 at 2:47 pm

      Contribution to the team’s efficiency bottom line. It is equal to the player’s ASPM*%min. So if a player is a -1 player (below average, above replacement level) and plays 50% of the minutes, the contrib for that player would be -0.5.

  4. Marko on September 9, 2012 at 2:51 pm

    Is there any way to use ASPM to create NBA betting lines that are comparable to Vegas lines to judge overvalued and undervalued teams? I know you’ve done a few game predictions but I haven’t seen anything consistent and that considers ATS.


    • DanielM on September 10, 2012 at 11:54 am

      I try to avoid doing anything re: betting.

  5. Raj on June 14, 2013 at 10:18 am

    just curious if youve ever looked at ASPM in the playoffs?

    • DanielM on June 14, 2013 at 1:27 pm

      Not extensively, but it is certainly doable. Team adjustment is trickier.

  6. Wayne Hagarty on October 22, 2013 at 12:33 pm

    Daniel, might there be some daily NBA daily predictions/predicted scores once the regular season commences? They are always a great talking point amongst NBA purists & they keep us coming back to your site, day after day.

    Appreciate your time.

    • DanielM on October 22, 2013 at 1:40 pm

      Thanks for the contact, Wayne.

      I don’t plan on doing any daily predictions, no. I don’t put much time into stats right now, certainly not on a daily basis. I think TeamRankings might have some NBA stuff like you mention?

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To-Do List

  1. Salary and contract value discussions and charts
  2. Multi-year APM/RAPM with aging incorporated
  3. Revise ASPM based on multi-year RAPM with aging
  4. ASPM within-year stability/cross validation
  5. Historical ASPM Tableau visualizations
  6. Create Excel VBA recursive web scraping tutorial
  7. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  8. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  9. Publication of spreadsheets used
  10. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  11. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  12. Learn ridge regression
  13. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  14. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  15. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  16. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  17. Lineup Bayesian APM
  18. Lineup RAPM
  19. Learn SQL