I didn’t see a post regarding the 2011 US Open. Considering your work proved to be spot on for the Masters I thought for sure you would have done another “prediction”. I know the NBA Finals take precedence and you put forth a lot of time towards that endeavor. Hope you consider the British Open and PGA if you have the time. Thanks for your efforts! Great work and I love the side. Thank you.
Yes, I’ve been really busy lately, with real world stuff. Moving across the country soon. I will likely have less time to work on this site as I transition to a new job. I have done some more work with golf, but haven’t had a chance to follow through with it. I have improved the system–Charl Schwartzel really shouldn’t have been favored; that was an artifact of a lack of connectivity within the regression! (That worked out pretty nicely, though.)
Contribution to the team’s efficiency bottom line. It is equal to the player’s ASPM*%min. So if a player is a -1 player (below average, above replacement level) and plays 50% of the minutes, the contrib for that player would be -0.5.
Is there any way to use ASPM to create NBA betting lines that are comparable to Vegas lines to judge overvalued and undervalued teams? I know you’ve done a few game predictions but I haven’t seen anything consistent and that considers ATS.
Daniel, might there be some daily NBA daily predictions/predicted scores once the regular season commences? They are always a great talking point amongst NBA purists & they keep us coming back to your site, day after day.
I don’t plan on doing any daily predictions, no. I don’t put much time into stats right now, certainly not on a daily basis. I think TeamRankings might have some NBA stuff like you mention?
You are absolutely amazing to share all the data you collected from Google docs (rather than selling it). I sincerely appreciate it.
Question – is there any where I could find a reference for the explanation of each metric? Some of them are obvious but many of them may need some explanation.
Also not sure if your data is from different sources. Some minor error I found, for example, Kobe Bryant was hurt in 2013 but not shown on your data (no hurt marked in that column).
Do you have a sense which column in your data is less reliable than others?
Unfortunately, the old Excel sheet is no more. Basketball changed their website a while ago and the functions don’t work anymore. A new technique for calculating BPM (BPM 2.0) will be released soon and when it is, an updated Google Sheets calculator will be included. It currently lives at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TZZww6pRmHN2Kg64nkmog7UpiATvtv-41RglxKHCUts/edit#gid=0
I didn’t see a post regarding the 2011 US Open. Considering your work proved to be spot on for the Masters I thought for sure you would have done another “prediction”. I know the NBA Finals take precedence and you put forth a lot of time towards that endeavor. Hope you consider the British Open and PGA if you have the time. Thanks for your efforts! Great work and I love the side. Thank you.
Sean
Yes, I’ve been really busy lately, with real world stuff. Moving across the country soon. I will likely have less time to work on this site as I transition to a new job. I have done some more work with golf, but haven’t had a chance to follow through with it. I have improved the system–Charl Schwartzel really shouldn’t have been favored; that was an artifact of a lack of connectivity within the regression! (That worked out pretty nicely, though.)
Do you have ASPM for past years?
Historical ASPM, in Excel form:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bx1NfCUslJwxM2Q1MzFiMjEtNmY5Mi00ZjgxLWIyOTEtODMzMmM4YmQzMmEx/edit
Thanks, and what is Contrib?
Contribution to the team’s efficiency bottom line. It is equal to the player’s ASPM*%min. So if a player is a -1 player (below average, above replacement level) and plays 50% of the minutes, the contrib for that player would be -0.5.
Is there any way to use ASPM to create NBA betting lines that are comparable to Vegas lines to judge overvalued and undervalued teams? I know you’ve done a few game predictions but I haven’t seen anything consistent and that considers ATS.
Thanks.
I try to avoid doing anything re: betting.
just curious if youve ever looked at ASPM in the playoffs?
Not extensively, but it is certainly doable. Team adjustment is trickier.
Daniel, might there be some daily NBA daily predictions/predicted scores once the regular season commences? They are always a great talking point amongst NBA purists & they keep us coming back to your site, day after day.
Appreciate your time.
Thanks for the contact, Wayne.
I don’t plan on doing any daily predictions, no. I don’t put much time into stats right now, certainly not on a daily basis. I think TeamRankings might have some NBA stuff like you mention?
Hi Dan,
You are absolutely amazing to share all the data you collected from Google docs (rather than selling it). I sincerely appreciate it.
Question – is there any where I could find a reference for the explanation of each metric? Some of them are obvious but many of them may need some explanation.
Thank you,
Zhou
Hi Dan,
Also not sure if your data is from different sources. Some minor error I found, for example, Kobe Bryant was hurt in 2013 but not shown on your data (no hurt marked in that column).
Do you have a sense which column in your data is less reliable than others?
But still, thank you so much for sharing it.
Zhou
Which data source was that? I will contact you via email or Twitter to continue conversation.
I don’t have a comprehensive guide currently, unfortunately.
NOTE: Any questions or comments regarding Box Plus/Minus should be discussed at: http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/box-plusminus/
Hi Daniel,
I was wondering if there is a way to download the BPM excel sheet, as it is not available on the site anymore.
Thank you!
Unfortunately, the old Excel sheet is no more. Basketball changed their website a while ago and the functions don’t work anymore. A new technique for calculating BPM (BPM 2.0) will be released soon and when it is, an updated Google Sheets calculator will be included. It currently lives at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TZZww6pRmHN2Kg64nkmog7UpiATvtv-41RglxKHCUts/edit#gid=0