Evan Zamir at The City recently unveiled Adjusted 4-Factors at the individual level, using a 2.5 year sample size and a Ridge Regression approach. The results are very interesting. Here, I’m simply converting his initial work into an interactive visualization. Powered by Tableau
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Tags: NBA, Player Ratings, RAPM, Statistics, Visualization
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
Inspired by Evan Zamir’s use of a treemap to visualize WARP over at The City, I created a treemap to visualize ASPM VORP for the 2012 season-to-date. I used Google Docs and the treemap-gviz widget to construct the visualization. I used the latest iteration of the ASPM framework to compile the data, and selected...
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Tags: Advanced SPM, Charts, NBA, Treemap, Visualization
Posted in NBA Stats | 2 Comments »
It’s time for the With-or-Without-You analysis of the NBA Finals teams: Dallas and Miami. For this review, I will consider a player to not have played (i.e. “Without You”) if the player played 20% or less of their average MPG. This allows us to look into the coach’s rotation decisions a bit more, while...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
I have updated my Bayesian Power Ratings, using the techniques described in previous posts:
On Bayesian Predictive Efficiency Ratings
NBA Final Regular Season Bayesian Efficiency Ratings
Here are the Bayesian Ratings, updated through the end of the conference finals:
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Google Motion Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Team Ratings, Visualization
Posted in NBA Stats | 2 Comments »
This is just a quick chart dump, based upon Neil Paine’s research at Basketball Reference:
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Tags: Charts, NBA, Statistics, Team Ratings, Visualization, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:) CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL 98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7% CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL 4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to...
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Tags: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
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I’ve been playing around with some charts, and I thought it might be nice to have the NBA team colors in hex format: Team Color1 Color2 Color3 Color4 ATL #1B1C48 #FF2728 #C2C3BD BOS #00611B #000000 CHA #3E6085 #F26432 #D1D2D4 CHI #B00203 #000000 CLE #8B0034 #F9B433 #002859 DAL...
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Tags: NBA, Visualization
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I’m working on a new metric to quickly measure a player’s single-game contribution (a slightly more complex “game score”). I’ve tabulated the results for every game played this year, and that lets me do this: Here are the brightest stars in the NBA, by dominant superstar performances this year. I’m giving 3 points for...
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Tags: Box Score Analysis, NBA, Player Ratings, Statistics, Visualization
Posted in NBA Stats | 6 Comments »
Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34%...
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Tags: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »
After a ton of math and fudging, I’ve come up with these estimates for how much a “tightened rotation” will help each team in the playoffs. I took close games between playoff teams in the past 1.5 months, figured out the top rotation (MPG/player) for each team when everyone’s healthy, and took the max...
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Tags: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Team Ratings
Posted in NBA Stats | 3 Comments »
