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Posts Tagged ‘ NBA ’

WOWY: NBA Finals Edition

May 31, 2011
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It’s time for the With-or-Without-You analysis of the NBA Finals teams: Dallas and Miami. For this review, I will consider a player to not have played (i.e. “Without You”) if the player played 20% or less of their average MPG. This allows us to look into the coach’s rotation decisions a bit more, while...
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Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »

Bayesian Power Ratings: NBA Finals Edition

May 27, 2011
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I have updated my Bayesian Power Ratings, using the techniques described in previous posts: On Bayesian Predictive Efficiency Ratings NBA Final Regular Season Bayesian Efficiency Ratings Here are the Bayesian Ratings, updated through the end of the conference finals:
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Posted in NBA Stats | 2 Comments »

Chart: With or Without Inefficient Scorers

May 23, 2011
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Chart: With or Without Inefficient Scorers

This is just a quick chart dump, based upon Neil Paine’s research at Basketball Reference:
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Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »

Round 2 Predictions

April 30, 2011
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Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:) CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL 98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7% CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL 4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to...
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NBA Hex Colors

April 28, 2011
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I’ve been playing around with some charts, and I thought it might be nice to have the NBA team colors in hex format: Team Color1 Color2 Color3 Color4 ATL #1B1C48 #FF2728 #C2C3BD   BOS #00611B #000000     CHA #3E6085 #F26432 #D1D2D4   CHI #B00203 #000000     CLE #8B0034 #F9B433 #002859   DAL...
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Visualization: The Brightest Stars in the NBA

April 27, 2011
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Visualization: The Brightest Stars in the NBA

I’m working on a new metric to quickly measure a player’s single-game contribution (a slightly more complex “game score”). I’ve tabulated the results for every game played this year, and that lets me do this: Here are the brightest stars in the NBA, by dominant superstar performances this year. I’m giving 3 points for...
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Posted in NBA Stats | 6 Comments »

Playoff Odds 2011

April 16, 2011
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Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34%...
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Tightened Rotations

April 16, 2011
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After a ton of math and fudging, I’ve come up with these estimates for how much a “tightened rotation” will help each team in the playoffs. I took close games between playoff teams in the past 1.5 months, figured out the top rotation (MPG/player) for each team when everyone’s healthy, and took the max...
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Posted in NBA Stats | 3 Comments »

With-or-Without-You Compilation

April 15, 2011
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A collection of With-or-Without-You tables for playoff teams.  All regressions were stabilized with about 30 games worth of “average for the team” performance.  Not all regressions have the last game of the season included. Oklahoma City Thunder: WOWY equally weighted over season Eff Mar Off Eff Def Eff Games Equiv+/- Team 9.4 8.1 -1.3...
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Posted in NBA Rankings, NBA Stats, WOWY | No Comments »

Team Charts 2011

April 15, 2011
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Here are all of the Adjusted Efficiency Team Charts for the 2011 NBA regular season.  These are adjusted for opponent (average for their whole season), rest-day-situation, and location. Here are links to each image (so as to avoid flipping through the slideshow): Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics Charlotte Bobcats Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Dallas Mavericks...
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Posted in NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Rankings, NBA Stats | 2 Comments »

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To-Do List

  1. Salary and contract value discussions and charts
  2. Multi-year APM/RAPM with aging incorporated
  3. Revise ASPM based on multi-year RAPM with aging
  4. ASPM within-year stability/cross validation
  5. Historical ASPM Tableau visualizations
  6. Create Excel VBA recursive web scraping tutorial
  7. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  8. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  9. Publication of spreadsheets used
  10. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  11. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  12. Learn ridge regression
  13. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  14. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  15. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  16. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  17. Lineup Bayesian APM
  18. Lineup RAPM
  19. Learn SQL