It’s time for the With-or-Without-You analysis of the NBA Finals teams: Dallas and Miami. For this review, I will consider a player to not have played (i.e. “Without You”) if the player played 20% or less of their average MPG. This allows us to look into the coach’s rotation decisions a bit more, while...
Read more »
Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
I have updated my Bayesian Power Ratings, using the techniques described in previous posts:
On Bayesian Predictive Efficiency Ratings
NBA Final Regular Season Bayesian Efficiency Ratings
Here are the Bayesian Ratings, updated through the end of the conference finals:
Read more »
Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Google Motion Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Team Ratings, Visualization
Posted in NBA Stats | 2 Comments »
This is just a quick chart dump, based upon Neil Paine’s research at Basketball Reference:
Read more »
Tags: Charts, NBA, Statistics, Team Ratings, Visualization, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | 1 Comment »
Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:) CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL 98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7% CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL 4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to...
Read more »
Tags: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »
I’ve been playing around with some charts, and I thought it might be nice to have the NBA team colors in hex format: Team Color1 Color2 Color3 Color4 ATL #1B1C48 #FF2728 #C2C3BD BOS #00611B #000000 CHA #3E6085 #F26432 #D1D2D4 CHI #B00203 #000000 CLE #8B0034 #F9B433 #002859 DAL...
Read more »
Tags: NBA, Visualization
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »
I’m working on a new metric to quickly measure a player’s single-game contribution (a slightly more complex “game score”). I’ve tabulated the results for every game played this year, and that lets me do this: Here are the brightest stars in the NBA, by dominant superstar performances this year. I’m giving 3 points for...
Read more »
Tags: Box Score Analysis, NBA, Player Ratings, Statistics, Visualization
Posted in NBA Stats | 6 Comments »
Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34%...
Read more »
Tags: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Stats | No Comments »
After a ton of math and fudging, I’ve come up with these estimates for how much a “tightened rotation” will help each team in the playoffs. I took close games between playoff teams in the past 1.5 months, figured out the top rotation (MPG/player) for each team when everyone’s healthy, and took the max...
Read more »
Tags: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Team Ratings
Posted in NBA Stats | 3 Comments »
A collection of With-or-Without-You tables for playoff teams. All regressions were stabilized with about 30 games worth of “average for the team” performance. Not all regressions have the last game of the season included. Oklahoma City Thunder: WOWY equally weighted over season Eff Mar Off Eff Def Eff Games Equiv+/- Team 9.4 8.1 -1.3...
Read more »
Tags: Bayesian Analysis, Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, Team Ratings, Trade Analysis, With-or-Without-You
Posted in NBA Rankings, NBA Stats, WOWY | No Comments »
Here are all of the Adjusted Efficiency Team Charts for the 2011 NBA regular season. These are adjusted for opponent (average for their whole season), rest-day-situation, and location. Here are links to each image (so as to avoid flipping through the slideshow): Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics Charlotte Bobcats Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Dallas Mavericks...
Read more »
Tags: Charts, Gallery, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings
Posted in NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Rankings, NBA Stats | 2 Comments »
