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Bayesian Power Ratings: NBA Finals Edition

May 27, 2011
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I have updated my Bayesian Power Ratings, using the techniques described in previous posts:

Here are the Bayesian Ratings, updated through the end of the conference finals:

Team Bayesian Bayes OE Bayes DE Pace Max L8 L18 L62 Stdev
MIA 7.11 4.13 -2.18 87.7 7.11 7.11 7.84 12.3
CHI 6.61 1.31 -4.56 87.4 7.48 7.48 7.87 13.1
DAL 6.36 3.27 -2.37 89.5 6.45 6.45 6.45 12.7
OKC 4.53 3.84 -0.18 91.0 5.01 5.01 5.01 11.6
DEN 4.48 3.00 -0.96 94.2 5.44 5.44 5.44 11.7
LAL 4.45 2.43 -1.51 88.3 5.94 6.93 6.93 12.7
ORL 4.27 0.10 -3.68 89.1 4.75 5.25 5.71 10.7
BOS 4.12 -0.92 -4.56 88.9 4.44 4.44 7.37 11.8
SAS 3.91 2.75 -0.71 91.3 4.84 4.94 6.70 12.2
MEM 3.07 0.66 -2.07 90.4 4.17 4.17 4.17 12.6
HOU 2.73 3.21 0.80 93.0 3.00 3.19 3.19 11.8
POR 2.13 2.14 0.25 86.2 3.32 3.35 3.35 13.3
PHI 0.95 -0.23 -1.07 89.6 1.81 2.76 2.99 11.6
NYK 0.48 3.56 3.14 93.1 1.24 1.40 2.04 11.9
NOH -0.56 -0.35 0.15 90.2 0.30 1.30 4.18 11.9
GSW -0.72 1.42 2.06 94.0 -0.72 -0.72 -0.72 13.0
PHO -0.73 1.59 2.24 93.5 -0.40 0.39 0.98 10.8
MIL -1.07 -4.40 -3.46 89.1 -0.88 -0.88 0.03 12.1
IND -1.40 -1.17 0.07 92.8 -0.98 -0.94 0.06 11.7
ATL -1.57 -0.68 0.71 87.0 -1.07 -0.65 2.78 13.5
LAC -2.32 -1.75 0.29 92.7 -2.21 -1.64 -0.49 10.7
UTA -2.69 0.53 2.91 94.7 -2.69 -2.10 4.41 11.3
DET -3.27 1.72 4.61 89.8 -3.21 -3.21 -2.93 10.2
SAC -3.65 -2.39 0.83 95.4 -3.18 -3.18 -3.18 12.6
CHA -4.25 -2.12 1.63 88.5 -3.98 -3.41 -1.73 12.5
MIN -6.27 -2.74 2.78 95.0 -4.98 -3.91 -3.45 12.4
NJN -6.30 -2.38 3.17 90.0 -5.74 -4.94 -3.60 9.9
TOR -6.45 -0.52 5.16 91.7 -6.21 -5.84 -2.16 11.3
WAS -6.88 -3.42 2.64 93.5 -6.71 -6.71 -4.54 13.0
CLE -7.62 -3.24 3.48 91.8 -7.62 -7.62 -6.85 12.4

And here is my most intricate Team-Level Google Motion Chart to date:

 
(Source Data on Google Spreadsheets)
 

 

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2 Responses to Bayesian Power Ratings: NBA Finals Edition

  1. Stathead ยป Blog Archive on May 27, 2011 at 4:03 pm

    [...] Bayesian Power Ratings: NBA Finals Edition: Daniel Myers’ pre-Finals team ratings at DStats. [...]

  2. ElGee on May 28, 2011 at 4:18 pm

    Wow – that’s a serious chart Daniel. Interesting that Miami came out better earlier in the year than now, whereas Dallas has shown steady improvement to championship level since Dirk came back.

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To-Do List

  1. Salary and contract value discussions and charts
  2. Multi-year APM/RAPM with aging incorporated
  3. Revise ASPM based on multi-year RAPM with aging
  4. ASPM within-year stability/cross validation
  5. Historical ASPM Tableau visualizations
  6. Create Excel VBA recursive web scraping tutorial
  7. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  8. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  9. Publication of spreadsheets used
  10. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  11. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  12. Learn ridge regression
  13. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  14. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  15. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  16. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  17. Lineup Bayesian APM
  18. Lineup RAPM
  19. Learn SQL