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2012-2013 ASPM & VORP Released

November 14, 2012

A quick note:

2012-2013 ASPM & VORP have now been released! See the new 2013 ASPM page.

A few early notes:

  • The cream is already rising to the top after 4 to 8 games for each team.
  • LeBron James is #1 in total VORP, with an ASPM almost exactly the same as last year.
  • The only big outliers right now are the Knicks, buoyed by a very hot start. I don’t think they will sustain the +20 efficiency margin… Jason Kidd currently has the second-best ASPM in the league. Small sample size warning!
  • Kyle Lowry actually has the best ASPM, but he has only played 4 games before he got hurt.
  • Anthony Davis with the very good start to his rookie season.
  • Andrei Kirilenko is back!
  • Keep your eye on Brandon Jennings, Mike Conley, and Jeff Teague as young point guards that could become elite this year.

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To-Do List

  1. Salary and contract value discussions and charts
  2. Multi-year APM/RAPM with aging incorporated
  3. Revise ASPM based on multi-year RAPM with aging
  4. ASPM within-year stability/cross validation
  5. Historical ASPM Tableau visualizations
  6. Create Excel VBA recursive web scraping tutorial
  7. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  8. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  9. Publication of spreadsheets used
  10. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  11. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  12. Learn ridge regression
  13. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  14. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  15. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  16. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  17. Lineup Bayesian APM
  18. Lineup RAPM
  19. Learn SQL