Win Shares Hall Rating

I’ve been playing around with an update to Hall Rating and thought I’d try to turn it into a Top 100 list, since I’ve been following the RealGM Top 100 Project debates.

I’m using Win Shares as my basis here (so I can get all of NBA history), with all of the caveats that implies.

Methodology:

I am only counting seasons where the player was above average (0.10 for WS/48). The Hall Rating of that season is then calculated using a triangular series weighting (it’s a continuous function). It’s easier to show than describe:
0.10 => 0.0
0.20 => 0.1
0.30 => 0.3
0.40 => 0.6

This is effectively the logical extension of the previous, stepwise weighting function.

(Nobody’s ever really reached 0.40 WS/48 anyway.)

That translated rating is then multiplied by Minutes played and divided by 48 to get Hall Rating, which is therefore on sort of a WS equivalent scale.
The postseason rating was modified a little further.

Average was set at 0.07 instead of 0.10, to account for the more difficult competition.
All Hall Ratings were multiplied by 2 because of the greater importance
The sum of each player’s stats was multiplied by a factor adjusting for the length of the playoffs, since this is a counting stat–effectively, this was (Length of Path in Modern Playoffs/Shortest Length of Path in Playoffs in Given Year).

Results:

Here are the top 100 careers by this rating system. No, I do not think that Wilt Chamberlain is the GOAT–though I think you could say that Win Shares does.

Rank	Player	Reg. Season Rank	Playoff Rank	Hall Rating	Reg. Season Rating	Playoff Rating	Tier
1	Wilt Chamberlain	2	2	281	191	90	1
2	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	1	4	280	200	80	1
3	Michael Jordan	3	1	274	182	92	1
4	LeBron James	6	6	208	137	71	2
5	Jerry West	14	5	171	98	73	3
6	Tim Duncan	10	8	169	110	59	3
7	Karl Malone	4	28	168	141	27	3
8	David Robinson	5	27	167	138	29	3
9	Bill Russell	18	3	163	79	83	3
10	Magic Johnson	13	7	161	101	60	3
11	Shaquille O'Neal	9	9	160	110	50	3
12	Dirk Nowitzki	8	13	149	110	38	4
13	John Stockton	7	29	144	117	27	4
14	Oscar Robertson	11	20	141	108	33	4
15	Charles Barkley	12	24	138	108	30	4
16	Larry Bird	17	12	119	80	38	5
17	Kobe Bryant	20	16	113	77	36	5
18	Kevin Garnett	15	45	113	95	18	5
19	Bob Pettit	19	26	107	78	29	6
20	Hakeem Olajuwon	23	11	107	68	39	6
21	Chris Paul	16	57	104	89	15	6
22	Dolph Schayes	25	10	104	64	39	6
23	Reggie Miller	22	25	99	70	29	7
24	Moses Malone	21	38	93	70	22	7
25	Chauncey Billups	28	22	90	59	32	7
26	Dwyane Wade	29	30	82	56	27	8
27	Walt Frazier	34	21	82	50	32	8
28	Kevin Durant	27	44	81	62	18	8
29	Kevin McHale	35	23	81	50	31	8
30	Manu Ginobili	31	34	78	53	25	8
31	Sam Jones	53	14	77	40	37	8
32	Adrian Dantley	26	73	75	63	13	8
33	Neil Johnston	24	130	74	67	7	8
34	Julius Erving	40	36	71	47	24	9
35	Clyde Drexler	30	54	71	55	16	9
36	George Mikan	67	15	71	34	36	9
37	Elgin Baylor	64	18	69	34	35	9
38	Paul Arizin	45	37	68	45	23	9
39	Scottie Pippen	50	32	67	41	26	9
40	Pau Gasol	44	42	64	45	19	10
41	Chet Walker	37	56	64	48	16	10
42	Paul Pierce	38	55	64	48	16	10
43	Bob Lanier	39	53	64	48	16	10
44	Cliff Hagan	78	19	63	30	33	10
45	Bailey Howell	32	79	62	51	12	10
46	Dwight Howard	42	50	62	46	17	10
47	Robert Parish	36	71	61	48	13	10
48	Ray Allen	49	41	61	41	19	10
49	Steve Nash	33	86	60	50	11	10
50	Horace Grant	66	35	58	34	24	10
51	Bill Sharman	69	33	58	33	25	10
52	Patrick Ewing	48	66	55	42	13	11
53	Gary Payton	41	107	55	46	8	11
54	John Havlicek	91	31	54	28	26	11
55	Walt Bellamy	43	131	53	46	7	11
56	Jeff Hornacek	61	52	52	35	16	11
57	Sidney Moncrief	47	118	51	43	8	11
58	Frank Ramsey	166	17	51	16	35	11
59	Kevin Johnson	55	78	51	39	12	11
60	Larry Nance	51	110	49	41	8	12
61	Amar'e Stoudemire	56	82	49	38	11	12
62	Terry Porter	65	65	48	34	14	12
63	Don Nelson	88	40	48	28	20	12
64	Ed Macauley	52	129	48	40	7	12
65	Artis Gilmore	46	270	48	44	3	12
66	Dikembe Mutombo	63	75	47	35	13	12
67	Shawn Marion	54	140	46	39	7	12
68	Bobby Jones	80	60	45	30	15	13
69	Shawn Kemp	73	69	45	31	13	13
70	Marques Johnson	72	77	44	32	12	13
71	Vern Mikkelsen	82	61	44	29	15	13
72	Willis Reed	81	62	44	29	15	13
73	Rick Barry	77	76	43	31	12	13
74	Wes Unseld	84	63	43	28	15	13
75	Elton Brand	57	170	43	37	6	13
76	Cedric Maxwell	96	51	42	26	16	13
77	Larry Foust	76	81	42	31	11	13
78	George Yardley	107	43	42	23	19	13
79	Ben Wallace	106	47	42	24	18	13
80	Alonzo Mourning	71	95	42	33	9	13
81	George Gervin	75	87	42	31	10	13
82	Bob McAdoo	58	188	41	36	5	13
83	Jason Kidd	79	80	41	30	11	13
84	Detlef Schrempf	59	180	41	36	5	13
85	Clyde Lovellette	86	74	41	28	13	13
86	Chris Bosh	74	99	40	31	9	13
87	Tracy McGrady	60	229	40	36	4	13
88	Bob Cousy	142	39	39	18	21	13
89	Bill Laimbeer	87	84	39	28	11	13
90	Dan Issel	70	167	38	33	6	14
91	Jack Sikma	83	100	38	29	9	14
92	Maurice Cheeks	103	68	38	24	13	14
93	Yao Ming	68	242	37	33	4	14
94	Rasheed Wallace	105	70	37	24	13	14
95	James Worthy	131	49	37	20	17	14
96	Dominique Wilkins	62	446	36	35	1	14
97	Vince Carter	85	127	36	28	7	14
98	Tyson Chandler	89	121	35	28	8	14
99	Tony Parker	90	147	34	28	7	14
100	Tom Heinsohn	168	46	34	16	18	14

My initial thoughts:

Looks like a pretty solid list
Note the clear top 3 and LeBron the clear #4 behind them. A clear tier 3 from 5 to 11, then tier 4 from 12-15. And then in tier 5 are Bird, Kobe, and KG…
It would be good to go through and weight each playoff run based on some more comprehensive analysis (weight by round of playoffs, for instance).
Win Shares likes Jerry West, David Robinson, John Stockton, and many of the very old and current players
This methodology doesn’t care much for ringzz, apparently

One Comment

Pablo Novi

May 25, 2015 at 9:49 am

Yes, very solid list. Will you be updating to include this season thru the Finals? My personal GOAT List: 1) KAJ 2) Magic 3) MJ 4) Wilt 5) LeBron (Before this current season began, assuming no serious injuries, I predicted that LeBron would move up one spot per year. I think he’s still on track to do that.) Why KAJ #1: 15-16 Great Years to MJ’s 10-11 (that’s a huge gap; 10 Finals to MJ’s 6, another huge gap). Why Magic #2: Better Teammate (best ever, imo) AND I count 8 Finals with 5 Chips over “only” 6 Finals with 6 Chips.

AJ on Box Plus/Minus
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Chosen Stats

Carefully Chosen Sports Stats — Daniel Myers

Win Shares Hall Rating

Methodology:

Results:

One Comment

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