Historical NBA Playoff Team Ratings

As part of the calculation of Playoff Box Plus/Minus, adjusted team ratings for each team in the playoffs are compiled.  This number portrays how the team performed in the playoffs only, without regard to their regular season performance.  Kevin Pelton has done similar work for ESPN Insider, but these independent ratings could be interesting.

The process:

  1. Get playoff minutes distribution for each team
  2. Compile implied team strength based on that minutes distribution and the regular season Box Plus/Minus value for each player.  Most teams get a point or two better from shortening their rotation like this; this particularly strengthens top-heavy teams like the Miami Heat of the LeBron/Wade/Bosh era.
  3. Compile number of games against each opponent in the playoffs
  4. Compute implied strength of schedule based on the number of games and implied strength of each team.
  5. Take actual playoff efficiency differential (from Basketball Reference) and add implied strength of schedule.  This is a best estimate of how the team actually performed in the playoffs, with 0 being an average team in that season.

Note: due to the reliance of this method on Box Plus/Minus from the regular season to develop the implied team strengths, these can only be compiled since the mid 1970s.  I have teams since 1978 in my database.

Since many of the playoff runs were rather short, I restricted this list to teams that made the conference finals.

Notes:

  • The 2001 Lakers played at an incredible level in the playoffs.  +20!!!  A team with that rating would be expected to win 77 games if they kept it up for an entire 82 game season!
  • The Jordan Bulls had an extra gear for sure
  • The 1996 and 1997 Jazz had some bad luck–they should have won at least one title with playoff ratings that good.
  • San Antonio was good in the 2014 playoffs.
  • In 2010, the Lakers had the worst playoff rating of the final 4 teams.  That is very odd.  In 2009, they were next to worst of those 4.  How did they win those titles?
  • The Hawks played at barely league average in the playoffs this season, and still made it to the conference championship somehow.  Indy was scarcely better the year before.  The East!
  • The 2010 Magic and 2009 Cavs both went 10-4 in the playoffs, had playoff ratings above +14 (well above most champs!)… and lost in the conference championship.
YearTeamGamesRecordOff EffDef EffEff. Diff.Finish
2001LAL1615-110.89.620.4Champ
1996CHI1815-38.510.919.3Champ
1991CHI1715-28.010.118.2Champ
2014SAS2316-75.911.016.9Champ
1996UTA1810-87.88.916.7Semis
1997CHI1915-45.010.415.4Champ
1986BOS1815-35.89.415.2Champ
2010ORL1410-45.89.315.1Semis
2009DEN1610-610.73.914.6Semis
1998CHI2115-64.89.414.2Champ
2011DAL2116-59.84.414.2Champ
2009CLE1410-48.06.014.1Semis
1992CHI2215-73.610.414.0Champ
2000POR1610-67.56.514.0Semis
1993CHI1915-49.74.113.8Champ
2015GSW2116-55.18.613.7Champ
2012MIA2316-78.74.713.4Champ
2009LAL2316-77.45.913.3Champ
1987LAL1815-36.56.613.1Champ
2004DET2316-73.29.913.0Champ
1989DET1715-23.59.412.9Champ
1987DET1510-53.49.212.6Semis
2013MIA2316-79.92.712.5Champ
1997UTA2013-76.85.812.5Runner-up
2005PHO159-614.5-2.012.5Semis
2012OKC2013-711.21.212.4Runner-up
1990DET2015-50.611.812.4Champ
1999SAS1715-23.98.312.3Champ
2003SAS2416-80.411.812.3Champ
2013SAS2115-66.16.112.2Runner-up
2006DAL2314-95.36.912.2Runner-up
1983PHI1312-14.37.812.1Champ
1985LAL1915-47.14.912.0Champ
2008LAL2114-77.34.611.9Runner-up
2010PHO1610-612.5-0.611.9Semis
2005DET2515-101.410.411.8Runner-up
2015CLE2014-64.57.111.6Runner-up
2012SAS1410-47.54.111.5Semis
1990PHO169-73.87.611.4Semis
2002LAL1915-47.24.211.4Champ
1988DET2314-9-1.613.011.4Runner-up
1983MIL95-43.38.111.4Semis
2008BOS2616-103.87.411.2Champ
2002SAC1610-64.36.911.2Semis
2010BOS2415-90.410.711.1Runner-up
2007SAS2016-44.76.311.0Champ
1995HOU2215-75.55.410.9Champ
1981BOS1712-55.55.410.9Champ
1982LAL1412-27.73.010.7Runner-up
2005SAS2316-73.57.010.5Champ
1989LAL1511-47.03.510.4Runner-up
1994HOU2315-85.44.810.2Champ
1992POR2113-84.15.910.0Runner-up
2005MIA1511-42.57.510.0Semis
1982BOS127-52.77.210.0Semis
1997HOU169-77.72.210.0Semis
1994IND1610-63.86.09.9Semis
2009ORL2413-113.66.29.8Runner-up
1986LAL148-64.15.79.8Semis
2008DET1710-74.65.29.8Semis
1996SEA2113-81.68.19.8Runner-up
1998IND1610-66.83.09.7Semis
1991LAL1912-73.06.79.7Runner-up
2006MIA2316-70.49.29.6Champ
1980BOS95-42.47.29.5Semis
1998UTA2013-70.09.59.5Runner-up
1999NYK2012-81.38.29.5Runner-up
2013MEM158-73.06.49.4Semis
1990CHI1610-63.06.49.4Semis
1996ORL127-510.6-1.39.3Semis
1980LAL1612-47.61.79.3Runner-up
1985PHI138-51.38.09.3Semis
2011MIA2114-74.84.59.3Runner-up
1984LAL2114-76.13.29.2Runner-up
2007UTA179-86.82.49.2Semis
2000LAL2315-89.00.19.1Champ
1995SAS159-6-1.610.69.0Semis
2004LAL2213-99.1-0.19.0Runner-up
2010LAL2316-75.73.39.0Champ
1986HOU2013-71.87.29.0Runner-up
1992CLE179-82.76.39.0Semis
1989PHO127-52.85.98.8Semis
2000IND2313-108.8-0.28.5Runner-up
1984BOS2315-85.53.08.5Champ
2004IND1610-63.45.18.4Semis
1998LAL137-68.7-0.38.4Semis
2012BOS2011-91.47.08.4Semis
2007DET1610-65.72.58.2Semis
2003NJN2014-6-1.39.38.1Runner-up
1993SEA1910-95.62.48.0Semis
2006DET1810-80.97.07.9Semis
1995IND1710-74.23.77.9Semis
1982PHI2112-94.13.87.9Champ
1980PHI1812-61.36.57.8Champ
2011OKC179-86.31.37.6Semis
2011CHI169-71.46.27.6Semis
2002BOS169-71.95.57.4Semis
1978WSB2114-71.85.57.3Champ
1983SAS116-52.25.17.3Semis
1999IND139-48.4-1.17.3Semis
2014OKC1910-93.04.27.2Semis
1981PHI169-74.32.97.2Semis
1985BOS2113-81.65.57.1Runner-up
1991POR169-72.14.97.0Semis
1999POR137-64.42.56.9Semis
1989CHI179-81.15.76.9Semis
1992UTA169-75.41.46.9Semis
2006PHO2010-106.80.06.9Semis
1995ORL2111-105.31.46.7Runner-up
2014MIA2013-77.4-0.86.6Runner-up
1979SEA1712-51.74.96.6Champ
2004MIN1810-84.32.26.5Semis
1994UTA168-86.10.46.4Semis
1994NYK2514-11-0.36.76.4Runner-up
1988LAL2415-95.11.36.4Champ
2001SAS137-6-1.57.86.3Semis
2008SAS179-8-2.89.16.3Semis
1983LAL158-72.73.46.1Runner-up
2013IND1911-80.85.15.9Semis
2015HOU179-82.43.35.7Semis
1978PHI106-40.74.95.6Semis
2001MIL1810-85.8-0.35.6Semis
2007CLE2012-8-1.47.05.5Runner-up
1993PHO2413-114.51.05.5Runner-up
1997MIA178-9-4.49.95.5Semis
1980SEA157-8-0.35.75.4Semis
1979PHO159-60.74.75.4Semis
1991DET157-81.24.15.3Semis
1988BOS179-81.14.15.2Semis
1987BOS2313-104.70.45.1Runner-up
2003DAL2010-108.5-3.55.0Semis
2001PHI2312-110.64.14.7Runner-up
1984MIL168-80.14.54.7Semis
2003DET178-9-1.65.94.3Semis
1990POR2112-90.04.24.2Runner-up
2002NJN2011-91.72.44.1Runner-up
1979SAS147-74.3-0.44.0Semis
1981HOU2112-92.11.83.9Runner-up
1988DAL1710-75.5-1.63.9Semis
1985DEN158-71.62.23.8Semis
1993NYK159-6-1.85.23.5Semis
1984PHO179-81.31.83.1Semis
1987SEA147-70.03.03.0Semis
1979WSB199-101.11.83.0Runner-up
2000NYK169-7-2.45.32.9Semis
1986MIL147-71.60.92.5Semis
2014IND1910-9-4.76.92.2Semis
1978SEA2213-90.22.02.2Runner-up
2015ATL168-8-2.23.71.5Semis
1982SAS94-52.3-1.70.6Semis
1981KCK157-8-3.53.3-0.3Semis
1978DEN136-72.5-3.6-1.0Semis

This table can be downloaded: Google Drive worksheet

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