5 Comments

  1. Mogilny

    Awesome! I haven’t seen your WOWY before and found it really cool. I look forward to the upcoming stuff. How large are the standard errors?

    • DanielM

      Must be big if you need 30 games of avg. for best out-of-sample results! I haven’t put any of these regressions in R yet, so I don’t know the numbers.

      This may be MOST valuable as a way of adjusting the team-level Bayesian, honestly. It can also validate replacement level for +/- if used on a large enough scale.

  2. Wowy! Lots of cool stuff here, as always. Interesting that you think tightened rotations will drive the Bulls up, when they don’t have a top 5-man rotation…

    Curious to see how other teams look by this method.

    • DanielM

      Tightened rotations will help every team (presuming the players they play the most are their best players!), but you’re right–it won’t help the Bulls as much as other teams (like the Celtics, Lakers, Heat, and Spurs).

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