4 Comments

  1. Crow

    Is your regression essentially Adjusted +/- at game level instead of play level? There obviously is going to be some loss of precision going from play level tracking of impact to game level summary.

    Did you adjust for overall season level quality of team faced or not? (Also adjusting for who is out for the opponents would be a possible refinement, if not already done.)

    I think there is some merit to this type of effort. I had previously talked years ago about some type of team specific re-runs of Adjusted +/- to try to optimize within team ratings more than that achieved by a broad league level rating effort of all players within and between teams.

    • DanielM

      I started with the completely adjusted game efficiencies–adjusted for opponent, rest, and location. So yes, this is fully adjusted for opponent.

      Then, I just looked at how good the team did with or without the player. OKC was 7.3 points per 100 possessions better with Nick Collison available.

      So this isn’t Adjusted +/-. This is more analogous to VORP, because it’s not per possession, but rather gives a point value to overall value to the team, per team possession. It’s also not relative to league average. It’s just “With or Without You”.

      Sure, granularity is given up. But since the goal is the team level impact, anyway, we gain by not having to translate from individual impact to team impact.

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