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NCAA Bayesian Analysis & DSMRPI

March 7, 2011
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Last week I posted my NCAA Bayesian Ratings and methodology.  Today I thought I’d update the numbers quickly and add a new twist.

What is the objective in basketball? To win the game! When doing a predictive rating system (like this Bayesian method) or even trying to tell how good teams are over this season (KenPom’s ratings), we account for margin of victory rather than just wins and losses. To be perfectly “just,” when choosing who should be in the NCAA tournament, why should we look at margin of victory? I’m going to craft a rating system here that doesn’t look at margin of victory at all. I’ll call it DSMRPI, since the RPI system is what it would supersede.

Ken Pomeroy lists each team’s opponent strength as a Pythagorean winning percentage (against average foes). We also can easily calculate each team’s winning percentage. How does one merge the two into an overall win%? Just convert the win percentages into a Z-score, sum, and convert back into a win%. Normsdist(Normsinv(Win%)+Normsinv(OppPyth%)). Easy!

The top 10 teams:

RankTeamWin%Opp%RPI%
1Ohio St.93.5%73.8%98.4%
2Kansas93.5%69.9%97.9%
3San Diego St.93.5%69.6%97.9%
4Brigham Young90.3%67.4%96.0%
5Duke87.1%72.9%95.9%
6Pittsburgh87.1%72.3%95.8%
7Purdue80.6%77.3%94.7%
8Notre Dame83.3%73.9%94.6%
9North Carolina80.0%77.5%94.5%
10Syracuse80.6%73.8%93.4%

Except… what happens if a team has never lost or has never won? Then Normsinv() is undefined, because the Z-score is either +infinity or -infinity. Great.

So here’s an alternate approach: assign each win a constant value and each loss a constant value (the same value).  Sum those values, and add to the opponent efficiency differential to create an overall “efficiency differential” only based on opponent strength and win-loss record.  To hone those constant values for the wins and losses, I maximized the correlation between the new number and the Z-scores calculated previously, as well as the correlation of the rank orders of the new number and the z-score.

DSMRPI vs. Z-Score

DSMRPI vs. Z-Score

A number between 18 and 21 for the value of a win works the best; I’ll use 20 just for simplicity’s sake.  There isn’t much of a difference within that region.  So I’m multiplying all wins by 20 and all losses by -20, thus assuming a margin of victory of 20 in all games.  This harms teams with outlying records, but I think the Z-score is actually less valid than this method with teams with records like 29-1.

So the final DSMRPI ratings look like this:

TeamConfW-LSoS PythDSMRPI
Ohio St.B1029-273.8%25.2
San Diego St.MWC29-269.6%24.5
KansasB1229-269.9%23.7
DukeACC27-472.9%22.9
PurdueB1025-677.3%22.6
North CarolinaACC24-677.5%22.3
Brigham YoungMWC28-367.4%22.2
GeorgetownBE21-982.5%21.8
PittsburghBE27-472.3%21.7
Notre DameBE25-573.9%21.4

Kansas is below San Diego St. because they played more home games, tweaking their SoS and overall value downward.

So now, with DSMRPI in hand we have a good idea of who SHOULD get into the NCAA tournament.  I have added an automatic seeding capability to my spreadsheet, along with a few other cool tweaks.

I also added a “Heat” column, showing how the Bayesian Rating has changed over the last 10 games.

Open the FULL SPREADSHEET for all of the bells and whistles!

RankTeamConfWin-LossKenPomBayesianHeatDSMRPIRankSeed
1Ohio St.B1029-237.234.551.2225.211
2KansasB1229-232.830.881.4623.731
3DukeACC27-431.729.690.3022.941
4PittsburghBE27-429.528.030.4721.793
5PurdueB1025-62927.513.4522.652
6WisconsinB1023-729.426.81-0.0320.7113
7TexasB1225-628.426.66-1.5619.1144
8SyracuseBE25-625.924.683.3119.7123
9KentuckySEC22-826.524.58-1.8517.1205
10Brigham YoungMWC28-327.224.54-0.3822.272
11North CarolinaACC24-625.223.923.6522.362
12San Diego St.MWC29-225.823.721.9124.521
13Notre DameBE25-52523.174.3321.4103
14WashingtonP1020-102422.73-4.8613.8369
15LouisvilleBE23-82322.071.7415.9277
16CincinnatiBE24-722.121.331.4015.6298
17Utah St.WAC28-323.121.312.8416.2257
18FloridaSEC24-622.920.922.3018.5164
19IllinoisB1019-1222.320.860.6216.5236
20BelmontASun30-422.120.741.9911.05814
21West VirginiaBE20-1021.920.58-0.7919.5134
22VanderbiltSEC21-920.619.230.4314.8318
23GeorgetownBE21-920.319.09-3.5021.882
24Nevada Las VegasMWC23-720.119.07-0.0317.3195
25ArizonaP1025-620.118.99-2.2718.8154
26ConnecticutBE21-920.118.85-1.9617.8185
27VillanovaBE21-1020.718.74-3.5016.8216
28MissouriB1222-920.418.35-0.6213.24211
29St. John'sBE20-1019.218.274.4318.3175
30George MasonCAA26-619.718.270.3313.53710
31Kansas St.B1222-919.918.205.4416.1267
32XavierA1024-618.617.681.5316.4246
33MarquetteBE18-1319.417.56-1.5110.859--
34GonzagaWCC23-918.117.172.6210.362--
35Virginia TechACC19-1017.917.03-1.2312.94311
36MarylandACC18-1318.216.98-3.927.383--
37ClemsonACC20-1017.916.801.1311.853--
38TempleA1024-617.516.770.2615.8287
39UCLAP1022-916.716.135.3115.0308
40St. Mary'sWCC24-71715.77-6.0811.85413
41Florida St.ACC21-915.815.40-1.3414.6328
42New MexicoMWC20-1116.915.292.1910.263--
43MichiganB1019-1216.115.165.1014.3349
44Southern CaliforniaP1018-1316.115.031.0212.051--
45Texas A&MB1223-715.514.58-1.6414.5339
46RichmondA1024-715.514.44-1.3512.54612
47Old DominionCAA26-61514.353.1313.43910
48Michigan St.B1017-1315.814.35-1.0416.7226
49NebraskaB1219-1115.414.22-1.197.384--
50Washington St.P1019-111514.21-2.8111.555--
51UABCUSA22-715.114.052.2713.43810
52IonaMAAC22-1015.214.014.866.49815
53Penn St.B1016-1315.713.991.8614.0359
54TennesseeSEC18-1314.413.99-0.9012.14913
55Seton HallBE13-1713.813.895.388.774--
56ButlerHorz22-914.413.580.5312.05013
57Boston CollegeACC19-1114.913.532.2413.24111
58MinnesotaB1017-1314.213.42-2.6813.34010
59GeorgiaSEC20-1014.313.38-0.7912.84411
60AlabamaSEC20-1014.413.23-0.938.078--
61DuquesneA1018-1113.713.10-3.326.792--
62ColoradoB1219-1214.912.771.559.470--
63Miami FLACC18-1313.712.520.249.967--
64Wichita St.MVC24-813.512.44-1.817.780--
65CaliforniaP1017-1313.412.191.1111.952--
66NorthwesternB1017-1213.211.70-1.9411.457--
67Colorado St.MWC19-1110.911.11-0.3912.54512
68Texas El PasoCUSA23-811.810.60-0.269.569--
69OaklandSum23-911.410.60-2.5311.45613
70BaylorB1218-1212.210.09-3.286.597--
71College of CharlestonSC24-910.410.070.928.57614
72Southern MississippiCUSA21-9129.990.4310.264--
73Cleveland St.Horz26-811.19.97-3.8012.34812
74MississippiSEC19-1210.99.940.286.791--
75MarshallCUSA21-10109.460.399.171--
76HarvardIvy23-510.69.341.3912.34712
77Missouri St.MVC25-89.79.27-0.889.768--
78IndianaB1012-1910.19.08-1.703.4132--
79Iowa St.B1216-159.99.02-2.493.3134--
80RutgersBE14-169.48.721.066.594--
81Boise St.WAC19-119.18.56-0.316.2101--
82Virginia CommonwealthCAA23-109.28.49-1.5610.361--
83Oklahoma St.B1218-128.78.44-0.0610.266--
84IowaB1011-198.78.281.444.0127--
85WoffordSC20-128.17.711.053.8128--
86TulsaCUSA18-128.17.652.406.790--
87Central FloridaCUSA19-1087.55-1.546.888--
88North Carolina St.ACC15-158.17.450.206.596--
89Georgia TechACC13-178.27.32-1.382.7140--
90ProvidenceBE15-168.17.25-3.294.7117--
91VirginiaACC16-147.17.114.056.693--
92PrincetonIvy23-67.26.830.6610.760--
93StanfordP1015-157.26.780.474.9114--
94ValparaisoHorz23-115.96.58-2.949.072--
95BucknellPat24-87.46.55-2.327.08615
96Morehead St.OVC24-97.36.342.826.29915
97Coastal CarolinaBSth28-54.96.33-2.615.7105--
98DrexelCAA21-106.26.09-4.288.675--
99Long Beach St.BW20-108.45.944.1510.26514
100OregonP1014-166.85.872.754.1124--
101MemphisCUSA22-95.95.72-1.828.973--
102FairfieldMAAC24-775.67-2.286.0102--
103James MadisonCAA21-116.15.67-2.597.682--
104PortlandWCC20-116.15.580.707.681--
105ArkansasSEC18-126.25.41-1.033.4131--
106Indiana St.MVC20-134.85.322.407.08715
107South Dakota St.Sum19-116.15.27-1.650.0170--
108DaytonA1019-125.15.14-3.176.789--
109BuffaloMAC17-125.34.95-3.420.5166--
110RiderMAAC23-105.54.94-0.806.2100--
111East Tennessee St.ASun22-114.74.77-0.615.8104--
112Texas TechB1213-1854.544.971.7153--
113Long IslandNEC26-54.64.50-0.277.18514
114CreightonMVC19-144.54.290.151.3159--
115Arizona St.P1012-184.74.140.604.6120--
116MontanaBSky20-94.44.12-2.925.310716
117Northern ColoradoBSky19-104.24.06-1.354.1126--
118St. LouisA1012-183.83.993.44-1.3183--
119Northern ArizonaBSky19-113.73.970.711.4158--
120New Mexico St.WAC15-164.13.870.503.0135--
121South FloridaBE9-223.73.87-0.972.1148--
122Mississippi St.SEC17-134.33.844.174.1125--
123South CarolinaSEC14-153.83.83-1.605.0112--
124Austin PeayOVC20-132.73.79-2.752.3144--
125Wright St.Horz19-144.63.78-0.064.1123--
126Oral RobertsSum18-143.73.783.302.6142--
127Rhode IslandA1018-124.23.72-0.236.595--
128Northern IowaMVC19-133.73.65-3.564.7118--
129St. Peter'sMAAC19-133.73.423.495.2109--
130Air ForceMWC15-145.13.340.445.0113--
131Kent St.MAC21-103.83.22-0.265.1111--
132IdahoWAC18-1243.183.414.4122--
133AkronMAC19-123.13.083.141.8151--
134Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz19-122.93.083.327.879--
135Murray St.OVC23-83.52.931.373.7129--
136IUPUISum19-133.12.77-0.585.9103--
137St. BonaventureA1016-132.72.682.544.5121--
138HofstraCAA21-1132.670.488.377--
139DetroitHorz17-162.82.651.702.9136--
140UtahMWC13-172.72.58-1.955.7106--
141NC AshevilleBSth19-132.52.220.350.516517
142DavidsonSC17-140.22.140.020.9160--
143VermontAE23-82.92.05-1.883.713016
144Southern MethodistCUSA17-1322.043.59-1.1181--
145Loyola ChicagoHorz16-151.91.93-0.83-1.4186--
146PacificBW16-142.11.75-4.991.9150--
147East CarolinaCUSA16-142.31.53-0.684.7119--
148Robert MorrisNEC18-131.21.402.852.9138--
149Weber St.BSky18-110.61.393.292.7139--
150George WashingtonA1017-131.61.103.672.5143--
151OhioMAC17-1411.072.17-1.4187--
152Santa ClaraWCC19-141.51.03-1.392.0149--
153Western MichiganMAC19-11-0.10.903.981.6154--
154FurmanSC22-101.10.88-4.254.8116--
155OklahomaB1213-1720.77-0.162.9137--
156RiceCUSA13-171.70.731.83-0.7177--
157Fresno St.WAC14-1610.702.74-0.2172--
158Oregon St.P1010-190.30.601.61-1.4185--
159LipscombASun17-130.30.55-1.682.6141--
160San FranciscoWCC17-141.60.531.285.2108--
161Wisconsin Green BayHorz14-180.30.42-0.591.8152--
162HawaiiWAC18-111.10.423.512.1147--
163North Dakota St.Sum14-15-10.341.26-3.8221--
164NevadaWAC12-180.90.300.39-0.5175--
165Cal PolyBW15-140.9-0.016.620.7163--
166UC Santa BarbaraBW15-130.9-0.14-2.202.2146--
167Central ConnecticutNEC19-120.4-0.41-1.44-1.4184--
168Boston UniversityAE20-13-0.6-0.455.670.1169--
169QuinnipiacNEC22-9-0.3-0.492.60-0.2173--
170La SalleA1014-17-0.4-0.601.19-2.4197--
171Stephen F. AustinSlnd18-10-2.2-0.62-3.96-4.7230--
172Middle TennesseeSB16-15-0.8-0.773.36-4.8232--
173Arkansas St.SB17-15-3.3-0.802.44-2.0191--
174CanisiusMAAC15-15-0.9-0.83-0.41-2.0193--
175IUPU Fort WayneSum18-12-1.7-0.921.57-0.8179--
176TulaneCUSA13-16-1-0.94-2.46-3.2207--
177MassachusettsA1015-14-0.9-0.98-2.001.4157--
178Texas ChristianMWC10-21-1.6-1.18-2.02-2.5198--
179Loyola MDMAAC15-15-1.7-1.381.43-2.2194--
180PennsylvaniaIvy13-14-1.1-1.58-0.01-0.6176--
181Ball St.MAC18-12-0.8-1.63-1.26-0.7178--
182AmericanPat22-9-1.9-1.741.173.3133--
183Western CarolinaSC18-15-2.4-1.76-0.940.9161--
184Tennessee TechOVC20-12-4.2-1.911.92-1.1182--
185JacksonvilleASun19-11-1.2-1.95-2.532.3145--
186San Jose St.WAC15-14-2.5-1.970.290.7164--
187EvansvilleMVC15-15-2.9-1.97-1.351.5156--
188North TexasSB21-10-2.5-2.06-3.28-0.1171--
189Miami OHMAC16-15-2.6-2.101.005.111016
190YaleIvy15-13-2.8-2.36-1.440.2168--
191CornellIvy10-18-2.9-2.593.26-5.1237--
192Charleston SouthernBSth16-16-5.5-2.70-1.23-4.1226--
193NortheasternCAA11-20-3-2.732.61-2.7201--
194Florida AtlanticSB21-10-2.4-2.81-3.894.811516
195Sam Houston St.Slnd17-12-1.5-2.823.90-0.3174--
196LehighPat16-15-3.4-3.14-1.10-3.4214--
197Virginia Military InstBSth18-13-3.9-3.32-0.18-2.4196--
198DelawareCAA14-17-3.4-3.35-0.170.8162--
199WyomingMWC10-20-4-3.391.97-3.0204--
200MercerASun15-18-3.5-3.592.33-4.4227--
201BradleyMVC12-20-3.5-3.645.69-5.1236--
202MaineAE15-15-4.9-3.65-6.67-5.6244--
203McNeese St.Slnd19-10-4.2-3.661.880.516717
204HoustonCUSA12-17-4.5-3.75-1.65-3.4213--
205AuburnSEC11-19-4.7-3.894.57-6.8257--
206DePaulBE7-23-3.7-3.931.13-3.3211--
207Saint Joseph'sA109-21-4.6-4.04-0.39-2.3195--
208CharlotteA1010-20-4.6-4.08-2.73-3.7218--
209Loyola MarymountWCC11-21-4-4.11-1.03-5.8248--
210Eastern KentuckyOVC15-16-7.2-4.22-2.15-6.1254--
211Western KentuckySB16-15-4.9-4.280.32-3.3210--
212SienaMAAC13-18-4.9-4.43-3.67-3.7219--
213LamarSlnd13-17-7.1-4.45-1.65-7.7269--
214Nicholls St.Slnd14-13-6.1-4.47-3.85-3.1205--
215Savannah St.ind11-18-10.9-4.503.92-2.5200--
216St. Francis NYNEC15-15-4.4-4.603.60-6.0253--
217NC WilmingtonCAA13-18-5.1-4.74-1.20-3.2209--
218William & MaryCAA10-22-5.2-4.842.62-5.3240--
219DrakeMVC13-18-5.4-4.942.45-4.1224--
220UC IrvineBW13-18-5.6-4.95-3.14-5.2238--
221DenverSB13-17-4.7-4.95-2.23-7.7270--
222Arkansas Little RockSB17-16-6-5.070.10-3.5215--
223LafayettePat13-18-5.6-5.073.64-5.5243--
224Cal St. NorthridgeBW13-17-6.1-5.180.84-3.0203--
225Appalachian St.SC16-15-5.3-5.281.64-0.9180--
226Georgia St.CAA12-19-5.9-5.30-0.86-5.9251--
227Utah ValleyGWC19-10-8.7-5.38-1.61-5.9250--
228Stony BrookAE15-16-5.3-5.391.81-7.3265--
229Holy CrossPat8-21-5.9-5.48-1.61-11.5307--
230PepperdineWCC12-21-6.2-5.801.98-3.1206--
231ColumbiaIvy15-13-5.4-6.00-3.13-2.5199--
232Louisiana St.SEC11-20-6.2-6.08-0.30-6.0252--
233WinthropBSth13-17-5.8-6.150.12-5.1235--
234Southern IllinoisMVC13-19-6.8-6.16-2.29-3.8220--
235LibertyBSth19-13-7.1-6.20-3.26-1.5188--
236Tennessee St.OVC14-16-7-6.36-3.95-4.1225--
237ElonSC14-17-7.4-6.42-2.30-4.6229--
238North FloridaASun15-19-6.9-6.51-2.031.6155--
239Louisiana LafayetteSB14-15-6-6.544.06-5.4241--
240BrownIvy11-17-7.8-6.691.32-7.0262--
241HamptonMEAC21-8-6.4-6.78-4.11-1.718917
242UC DavisBW10-20-7.5-6.81-2.03-7.5268--
243Southeastern LouisianaSlnd15-13-9.4-6.960.61-1.9190--
244WagnerNEC13-17-7.4-7.02-3.48-3.7217--
245AlbanyAE16-16-7.6-7.11-1.70-5.6245--
246Cal St. FullertonBW11-19-8.9-7.36-0.51-7.0263--
247Eastern WashingtonBSky10-20-9.6-7.431.42-7.3266--
248Illinois St.MVC12-19-7.5-7.44-0.33-8.6281--
249Louisiana TechWAC12-20-8.3-7.52-2.51-4.1223--
250Texas San AntonioSlnd16-13-6.9-7.571.89-3.9222--
251Texas ArlingtonSlnd13-16-8.6-7.74-4.15-6.4255--
252Bowling GreenMAC13-18-8.7-7.97-3.01-5.1234--
253Montana St.BSky13-18-9.4-8.07-2.34-5.0233--
254Wake ForestACC8-23-8.8-8.23-0.18-5.8249--
255Illinois ChicagoHorz7-24-9.4-8.231.86-7.4267--
256Youngstown St.Horz9-21-9.1-8.271.12-6.9259--
257Seattleind11-19-8.6-8.580.12-5.5242--
258Texas St.Slnd15-15-7.8-8.623.60-6.9259--
259PresbyterianBSth13-18-10.2-9.19-3.21-2.9202--
260CampbellASun12-19-9.7-9.34-4.66-8.9284--
261UC RiversideBW11-18-11.7-9.45-0.55-4.6228--
262ChattanoogaSC16-16-12.1-9.50-0.25-2.0192--
263Sacred HeartNEC11-18-10.6-9.610.44-9.8295--
264Mount St. Mary'sNEC11-21-10.4-9.76-0.27-6.9261--
265Northern IllinoisMAC9-20-10.5-9.79-2.97-9.9297--
266Morgan St.MEAC15-13-9.4-9.84-1.61-6.8258--
267Gardner WebbBSth11-21-10.6-9.892.24-5.7247--
268Coppin St.MEAC16-13-8.9-9.971.54-5.7246--
269Southern UtahSum11-19-8.8-9.973.94-9.3291--
270Jackson St.SWAC16-14-12.3-10.05-4.43-8.5280--
271TroySB8-21-11.5-10.30-1.20-8.9283--
272NavyPat11-20-10.4-10.381.90-10.0298--
273Northwestern St.Slnd18-13-10.1-10.560.85-4.8231--
274Portland St.BSky13-16-12.5-10.95-4.14-7.9271--
275Southeast Missouri St.OVC10-22-13.3-10.964.57-11.0303--
276TowsonCAA4-26-11.6-10.99-0.68-13.6323--
277Florida Gulf CoastASun10-20-11.5-11.204.05-9.2288--
278Missouri Kansas CitySum16-14-11.8-11.20-1.36-3.5216--
279South DakotaGWC16-14-13.8-11.29-2.81-11.1304--
280South AlabamaSB12-16-13.7-11.34-0.54-8.1274--
281Jacksonville St.OVC5-25-11.9-11.363.55-16.2334--
282Eastern MichiganMAC9-21-11.4-11.410.30-11.8312--
283Central MichiganMAC10-20-11.6-11.440.33-9.2288--
284MonmouthNEC9-21-12.1-11.481.86-12.6317--
285NC GreensboroSC7-24-12.2-11.501.28-11.3306--
286Texas SouthernSWAC18-11-12-11.71-3.88-3.220817
287St. Francis PANEC9-21-12.5-11.87-1.10-9.1287--
288New HampshireAE12-18-12.9-11.88-1.58-9.1286--
289ArmyPat11-19-12.7-11.94-5.72-9.6293--
290North Carolina A&TMEAC15-16-13.3-11.940.60-5.2239--
291Bethune CookmanMEAC20-11-13.8-12.142.13-3.4212--
292Florida InternationalSB11-19-12.9-12.23-0.73-10.4300--
293San DiegoWCC6-24-14-12.430.82-8.4278--
294The CitadelSC10-22-12.6-12.47-4.33-9.3290--
295Tennessee MartinOVC12-21-14-12.710.39-8.4279--
296Eastern IllinoisOVC9-20-14.4-12.84-4.83-11.2305--
297HartfordAE11-20-14-12.93-2.58-11.0302--
298FordhamA107-21-13.3-13.03-0.81-9.5292--
299NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC15-14-15.2-13.102.34-10.5301--
300Norfolk St.MEAC10-19-14.4-13.11-2.14-12.0313--
301North DakotaGWC16-14-14.6-13.130.25-8.2276--
302NiagaraMAAC9-23-14.3-13.181.18-9.8294--
303Delaware St.MEAC9-20-16.5-13.78-6.49-10.3299--
304ManhattanMAAC6-25-15.3-14.081.39-12.4316--
305North Carolina Centralind15-14-15.9-14.28-2.08-6.8256--
306StetsonASun8-23-14.9-14.290.97-11.7311--
307Idaho St.BSky9-20-15.3-14.75-1.95-8.2277--
308BryantNEC9-21-17-14.80-3.75-9.0285--
309Longwoodind12-19-20.2-14.993.57-7.3264--
310Mississippi Valley St.SWAC13-18-16.8-15.24-2.50-7.9272--
311High PointBSth12-19-17-15.60-0.24-7.9273--
312Alabama St.SWAC14-17-16.8-16.126.96-11.7308--
313MaristMAAC6-27-17.8-16.201.80-11.7309--
314Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd10-21-17.4-16.52-0.82-8.1275--
315BinghamtonAE8-23-17.9-16.674.63-14.0325--
316Fairleigh DickinsonNEC5-24-17.8-16.81-2.85-17.4338--
317South Carolina UpstateASun5-25-18.5-17.05-3.05-11.7310--
318SamfordSC12-19-17.5-17.14-2.70-8.6282--
319ColgatePat7-23-18.5-17.161.70-13.0319--
320Cal St. Bakersfieldind9-19-18.7-17.25-8.81-9.9296--
321Sacramento St.BSky7-21-18.8-17.36-0.05-13.2321--
322Alabama A&MSWAC13-14-16.8-17.500.01-13.7324--
323Kennesaw St.ASun8-23-19.6-17.781.92-12.1314--
324DartmouthIvy5-23-19.2-18.29-3.55-13.0320--
325South Carolina St.MEAC9-21-20.6-18.772.11-17.2337--
326Florida A&MMEAC12-19-20.1-18.79-0.60-12.6318--
327Western IllinoisSum7-23-21.7-19.75-2.55-14.4326--
328GramblingSWAC10-20-21.4-19.885.75-15.9333--
329Georgia SouthernSC5-27-20.1-19.881.27-16.6336--
330Louisiana MonroeSB7-24-21.6-19.98-1.98-14.4327--
331RadfordBSth5-24-21.3-20.23-0.46-13.5322--
332Central ArkansasSlnd5-24-24.4-20.29-3.85-17.9339--
333Prairie View A&MSWAC10-21-23.9-20.69-0.51-14.7328--
334ToledoMAC4-27-24.2-20.80-3.68-15.8332--
335Texas Pan AmericanGWC6-24-23.8-22.08-2.26-18.9341--
336Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC8-21-24.5-22.630.96-14.9330--
337Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC7-23-26-23.44-3.18-15.4331--
338MD Baltimore CountyAE5-25-25.9-23.97-2.32-16.3335--
339HowardMEAC6-23-25.3-23.990.81-20.2343--
340SIU Edwardsvilleind8-21-29.7-24.100.09-12.4315--
341Houston BaptistGWC4-25-25.1-24.20-1.12-23.9344--
342Alcorn St.SWAC4-24-27.7-25.04-0.15-19.6342--
343CentenarySum1-29-31.1-30.622.78-18.6340--
344SouthernSWAC4-26-34.7-33.63-4.08-25.2345--
345Chicago St.GWC6-25-36.7-33.86-2.98-14.9329--

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To-Do List

  1. Salary and contract value discussions and charts
  2. Multi-year APM/RAPM with aging incorporated
  3. Revise ASPM based on multi-year RAPM with aging
  4. ASPM within-year stability/cross validation
  5. Historical ASPM Tableau visualizations
  6. Create Excel VBA recursive web scraping tutorial
  7. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  8. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  9. Publication of spreadsheets used
  10. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  11. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  12. Learn ridge regression
  13. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  14. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  15. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  16. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  17. Lineup Bayesian APM
  18. Lineup RAPM
  19. Learn SQL