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NBA Playoffs

WOWY: NBA Finals Edition

May 31, 2011 by Daniel M 1 Comment

It’s time for the With-or-Without-You analysis of the NBA Finals teams: Dallas and Miami. For this review, I will consider a player to not have played (i.e. “Without You”) if the player played 20% or less of their average MPG. This allows us to look into the coach’s rotation decisions a bit more, while still … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You

Bayesian Power Ratings: NBA Finals Edition

May 27, 2011 by Daniel M 2 Comments

I have updated my Bayesian Power Ratings, using the techniques described in previous posts:
On Bayesian Predictive Efficiency Ratings
NBA Final Regular Season Bayesian Efficiency Ratings
Here are the Bayesian Ratings, updated through the end of the conference finals:

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, Google Motion Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Team Ratings, Visualization

Round 2 Predictions

April 30, 2011 by Daniel M Leave a Comment

Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:) CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL 98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7% CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL 4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to 0 … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You

Playoff Odds 2011

April 16, 2011 by Daniel M Leave a Comment

Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34% 31.75% … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You

Tightened Rotations

April 16, 2011 by Daniel M 3 Comments

After a ton of math and fudging, I’ve come up with these estimates for how much a “tightened rotation” will help each team in the playoffs. I took close games between playoff teams in the past 1.5 months, figured out the top rotation (MPG/player) for each team when everyone’s healthy, and took the max of … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Team Ratings

With-or-Without-You Compilation

April 15, 2011 by Daniel M Leave a Comment

A collection of With-or-Without-You tables for playoff teams.  All regressions were stabilized with about 30 games worth of “average for the team” performance.  Not all regressions have the last game of the season included. Oklahoma City Thunder: WOWY equally weighted over season Eff Mar Off Eff Def Eff Games Equiv+/- Team 9.4 8.1 -1.3 In … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Rankings, NBA Stats, WOWY Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, Team Ratings, Trade Analysis, With-or-Without-You

Team Charts 2011

April 15, 2011 by Daniel M 2 Comments

Here are all of the Adjusted Efficiency Team Charts for the 2011 NBA regular season.  These are adjusted for opponent (average for their whole season), rest-day-situation, and location. Here are links to each image (so as to avoid flipping through the slideshow): Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics Charlotte Bobcats Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Dallas Mavericks Denver … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Rankings, NBA Stats Tagged: Charts, Gallery, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings

NBA Final Regular Season Bayesian Ratings

April 15, 2011 by Daniel M 1 Comment

There is a !  I’m putting together an NBA Playoffs preview; this is the first of the data for that: Here is a table of playoff bound teams and their season-long adjusted efficiency ratings. Ratings are adjusted for location, pace (obviously, since these are per 100 possessions), opponent (recursively) and rest day situation. Previous is … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Rankings, NBA Stats Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, Google Motion Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings

With or Without You: OKC, Perk, and Nazr

April 13, 2011 by Daniel M 4 Comments

In continuing my series of With-or-Without-You (WOWY) analyses, I will next look at my hometown Oklahoma City Thunder, one of the hottest teams going into the playoffs. In the first two posts on WOWY, I looked at Oklahoma City in January(before the trades), and yesterday I looked at the Bulls and their strength going into the playoffs. In the Bulls post, I also revised and expanded this method with regression to the mean and Bayesian weighting for best future prediction.

Posted in: NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Stats, WOWY Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, Team Ratings, Trade Analysis, With-or-Without-You

With or Without You: The Bulls

April 12, 2011 by Daniel M 5 Comments

A couple of months ago, I introduced my method of With-or-Without-You(WOWY) for the NBA. This time, I’ll revise and expand upon the method, and take a pre-playoff look at the hottest team going: the Chicago Bulls.

As Kevin Pelton chronicled, the Bulls have actually been quite healthy this year–only Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer have missed significant time, among the regulars in the rotation. Kurt Thomas has missed time, also, but he has also been sat by Tom Thibodeau when healthy–complicating any analysis of WOWY. For this analysis, I’ll focus on Noah and Boozer.

Posted in: NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Stats, WOWY Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, With-or-Without-You
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