A quick update to , using a newer ASPM regression. The data here includes only data from 1978 to 2014, so players who started their careers before 1978 will be underrepresented. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, for instance, was already 30 in 1978–and he had a hall of fame career after that! Hall Rating, as currently constituted, is … [Read more…]
I have added another pane to my 2012-13 ASPM/VORP Tableau Visualization, allowing a better look at the distribution of talent across positions in the NBA. Powered by Tableau The new position vs. ASPM chart is quite interesting: there is an amazing lack of talent/performance right now at the 2,3, and 4 positions outside of a … [Read more…]
A quick note: 2012-2013 ASPM & VORP have now been released! See the new 2013 ASPM page. A few early notes: The cream is already rising to the top after 4 to 8 games for each team. LeBron James is #1 in total VORP, with an ASPM almost exactly the same as last year. The … [Read more…]
Here are my 2013 NBA Team Projections, based on my ASPM player projections. For playing time, I roughly used ESPN’s Fantasy Projections, tweaked so each team totaled 475% of the minutes (I assumed the rest of the minutes would go to replacement level (-3.25) players). Here are my regular season projections: I have updated these … [Read more…]
Inspired by Evan Zamir’s use of a treemap to visualize WARP over at The City, I created a treemap to visualize ASPM VORP for the 2012 season-to-date. I used Google Docs and the treemap-gviz widget to construct the visualization. I used the latest iteration of the ASPM framework to compile the data, and selected for … [Read more…]
Carmelo Anthony was FINALLY traded yesterday, in a mega 3-team deal. How did the teams make out? There are several good trade analyses around, but none of them are really focusing on the financial aspect. Kevin Pelton’s article is a good primer on the trade as a starting point, and Joe Treutlein at Hoopdata has … [Read more…]
Well, everyone else has an All-Star post up already: The actual All-Stars Mike G at APBR, with his eWins selections (also PER shown) (his thread inspired me to write this up) EvanZ, with his ezPM on the West and East All-Stars Kevin Pelton, with his WARP All-Stars John Hollinger’s look at ESPN Zach Lowe’s take … [Read more…]
The ASPM spreadsheet (download here) has a sheet for estimating a game’s results, based on team rest, location, and the rotation of players expected to play. For a quick example, I’ll look at the Magic vs. Heat game this evening. Here’s the sheet: I estimated the minutes each player would play based upon the rotations … [Read more…]