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Team Ratings

NFL: Adjusted Points per Possession

January 4, 2013 by Daniel M Leave a Comment

As the NFL playoffs approach, I was looking around for some good, adjusted performance data on the teams. In the NBA, we would immediately look at adjusted efficiencies–Points per 100 Possessions, adjusted for opponent. That data isn’t available in the NFL; in fact, it is hard to locate data on possession-based stats at all. Many … [Read more…]

Posted in: NFL Tagged: NFL Football, Tableau Charts, Team Ratings

2013 NBA ASPM Team Projections

October 29, 2012 by Daniel M 1 Comment

Here are my 2013 NBA Team Projections, based on my ASPM player projections. For playing time, I roughly used ESPN’s Fantasy Projections, tweaked so each team totaled 475% of the minutes (I assumed the rest of the minutes would go to replacement level (-3.25) players). Here are my regular season projections: I have updated these … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: Advanced SPM, NBA, Player Ratings, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings

WOWY: NBA Finals Edition

May 31, 2011 by Daniel M 1 Comment

It’s time for the With-or-Without-You analysis of the NBA Finals teams: Dallas and Miami. For this review, I will consider a player to not have played (i.e. “Without You”) if the player played 20% or less of their average MPG. This allows us to look into the coach’s rotation decisions a bit more, while still … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You

Bayesian Power Ratings: NBA Finals Edition

May 27, 2011 by Daniel M 2 Comments

I have updated my Bayesian Power Ratings, using the techniques described in previous posts:
On Bayesian Predictive Efficiency Ratings
NBA Final Regular Season Bayesian Efficiency Ratings
Here are the Bayesian Ratings, updated through the end of the conference finals:

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, Google Motion Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Team Ratings, Visualization

Chart: With or Without Inefficient Scorers

May 23, 2011 by Daniel M 1 Comment

This is just a quick chart dump, based upon Neil Paine’s research at Basketball Reference:

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: Charts, NBA, Statistics, Team Ratings, Visualization, With-or-Without-You

Round 2 Predictions

April 30, 2011 by Daniel M Leave a Comment

Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:) CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL 98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7% CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL 4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to 0 … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You

Playoff Odds 2011

April 16, 2011 by Daniel M Leave a Comment

Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34% 31.75% … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You

Tightened Rotations

April 16, 2011 by Daniel M 3 Comments

After a ton of math and fudging, I’ve come up with these estimates for how much a “tightened rotation” will help each team in the playoffs. I took close games between playoff teams in the past 1.5 months, figured out the top rotation (MPG/player) for each team when everyone’s healthy, and took the max of … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Projections, Team Ratings

With-or-Without-You Compilation

April 15, 2011 by Daniel M Leave a Comment

A collection of With-or-Without-You tables for playoff teams.  All regressions were stabilized with about 30 games worth of “average for the team” performance.  Not all regressions have the last game of the season included. Oklahoma City Thunder: WOWY equally weighted over season Eff Mar Off Eff Def Eff Games Equiv+/- Team 9.4 8.1 -1.3 In … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Rankings, NBA Stats, WOWY Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, Charts, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Player Ratings, Statistics, Team Ratings, Trade Analysis, With-or-Without-You

Team Charts 2011

April 15, 2011 by Daniel M 2 Comments

Here are all of the Adjusted Efficiency Team Charts for the 2011 NBA regular season.  These are adjusted for opponent (average for their whole season), rest-day-situation, and location. Here are links to each image (so as to avoid flipping through the slideshow): Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics Charlotte Bobcats Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Dallas Mavericks Denver … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Adjusted Efficiencies, NBA Rankings, NBA Stats Tagged: Charts, Gallery, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings
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