I’ve been playing around with an update to Hall Rating and thought I’d try to turn it into a Top 100 list, since I’ve been following the RealGM Top 100 Project debates. I’m using Win Shares as my basis here (so I can get all of NBA history), with all of the caveats that implies. … [Read more…]
I have added another pane to my 2012-13 ASPM/VORP Tableau Visualization, allowing a better look at the distribution of talent across positions in the NBA. Powered by Tableau The new position vs. ASPM chart is quite interesting: there is an amazing lack of talent/performance right now at the 2,3, and 4 positions outside of a … [Read more…]
A quick note: 2012-2013 ASPM & VORP have now been released! See the new 2013 ASPM page. A few early notes: The cream is already rising to the top after 4 to 8 games for each team. LeBron James is #1 in total VORP, with an ASPM almost exactly the same as last year. The … [Read more…]
A week ago, I discussed overrated and underrated players over the past 12 years, evaluated by comparing popular box-score stats with Jeremias Engelmann’s 12 year average Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM) dataset. For a primer on the virtues of RAPM (in large samples), see my article reviewing the state-of-the-art of adjusted plus/minus and stabilization. This time, … [Read more…]
One of the big ongoing questions in NBA stats and player valuation is where to set “replacement level”. I believe an empirical approach to determining that level is best. Jeremias Engelmann has produced an outstanding resource in his 12 year average RAPM data. Since so many years are used, it is quite stable; however, one … [Read more…]
Here are my 2013 NBA Team Projections, based on my ASPM player projections. For playing time, I roughly used ESPN’s Fantasy Projections, tweaked so each team totaled 475% of the minutes (I assumed the rest of the minutes would go to replacement level (-3.25) players). Here are my regular season projections: I have updated these … [Read more…]
The NFL season begins tonight, and there are predictions flying everywhere. I thought I’d take a basic analytical approach and produce a baseline projection. If your predictions can’t beat this (dumb) system, you aren’t very good at predictions! What got me started down this trail was Bill Barnwell’s article on Grantland breaking down some good … [Read more…]
This is a completely non-sports post, but I had the data and visualization (created for my own use) and thought I should post it online. I have compiled, from the Hardware.fr series on return rates of computer components, a database of component return rates. Having that data, I, of course, felt the need to first … [Read more…]