A collection of With-or-Without-You tables for playoff teams. All regressions were stabilized with about 30 games worth of “average for the team” performance. Not all regressions have the last game of the season included. Oklahoma City Thunder: WOWY equally weighted over season Eff Mar Off Eff Def Eff Games Equiv+/- Team 9.4 8.1 -1.3 In … [Read more…]
In continuing my series of With-or-Without-You (WOWY) analyses, I will next look at my hometown Oklahoma City Thunder, one of the hottest teams going into the playoffs. In the first two posts on WOWY, I looked at Oklahoma City in January(before the trades), and yesterday I looked at the Bulls and their strength going into the playoffs. In the Bulls post, I also revised and expanded this method with regression to the mean and Bayesian weighting for best future prediction.
A couple of months ago, I introduced my method of With-or-Without-You(WOWY) for the NBA. This time, I’ll revise and expand upon the method, and take a pre-playoff look at the hottest team going: the Chicago Bulls.
As Kevin Pelton chronicled, the Bulls have actually been quite healthy this year–only Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer have missed significant time, among the regulars in the rotation. Kurt Thomas has missed time, also, but he has also been sat by Tom Thibodeau when healthy–complicating any analysis of WOWY. For this analysis, I’ll focus on Noah and Boozer.
The concept of With-or-Without-You is very basic. If you are playing, is our team better or worse? If the team is worse with you available, then that’s a really bad sign! It’s the core concept behind such basketball metrics as +/-, Statistical Plus/Minus and Advanced Plus/Minus. In baseball, Tom Tango and MGL work with it … [Read more…]