2013 NBA ASPM Team Projections

Here are my 2013 NBA Team Projections, based on my ASPM player projections. For playing time, I roughly used ESPN’s Fantasy Projections, tweaked so each team totaled 475% of the minutes (I assumed the rest of the minutes would go to replacement level (-3.25) players).

Here are my regular season projections:

I have updated these to deal with some issues with the ESPN Fantasy playing time projections (such as discussed below with Memphis).

Team	Conf.	Div.	Efficiency	SoS	Eff. Mar.	Pyth Wins
Miami Heat	East	SE	5.93	-0.42	6.36	57
San Antonio Spurs	West	SW	4.84	-0.02	4.86	54
Oklahoma City Thunder	West	NW	4.08	-0.01	4.09	52
New York Knicks	East	Atlantic	3.43	-0.25	3.69	51
Atlanta Hawks	East	SE	2.86	-0.30	3.16	50
Denver Nuggets	West	NW	3.13	0.05	3.09	49
Los Angeles Lakers	West	Pacific	2.81	-0.05	2.87	49
Memphis Grizzlies	West	SW	2.77	0.00	2.77	49
Los Angeles Clippers	West	Pacific	2.61	0.00	2.61	48
Indiana Pacers	East	Central	1.64	-0.32	1.96	46
Minnesota Timberwolves	West	NW	1.52	0.11	1.41	45
Boston Celtics	East	Atlantic	0.40	-0.14	0.54	42
Dallas Mavericks	West	SW	0.61	0.14	0.47	42
Chicago Bulls	East	Central	0.09	-0.13	0.22	42
Philadelphia 76ers	East	Atlantic	0.09	-0.10	0.20	42
Milwaukee Bucks	East	Central	-0.09	-0.16	0.08	41
Brooklyn Nets	East	Atlantic	-0.12	-0.14	0.01	41
Utah Jazz	West	NW	0.00	0.14	-0.13	41
Washington Wizards	East	SE	-1.17	-0.08	-1.09	38
Phoenix Suns	West	Pacific	-1.22	0.22	-1.44	37
Toronto Raptors	East	Atlantic	-2.23	-0.20	-2.03	35
Orlando Magic	East	SE	-2.33	-0.11	-2.23	35
Houston Rockets	West	SW	-2.06	0.23	-2.29	35
New Orleans Hornets	West	SW	-2.31	0.35	-2.66	34
Sacramento Kings	West	Pacific	-2.68	0.31	-3.00	33
Portland Trail Blazers	West	NW	-2.75	0.36	-3.11	33
Golden State Warriors	West	Pacific	-3.28	0.35	-3.63	31
Detroit Pistons	East	Central	-4.59	-0.09	-4.50	29
Cleveland Cavaliers	East	Central	-5.22	0.11	-5.34	27
Charlotte Bobcats	East	SE	-6.78	0.16	-6.93	23

(The original table:)

Team	Conf.	Div.	Efficiency	SoS	Eff. Mar.	Pyth Wins
Miami Heat	East	SE	5.35	-0.40	5.75	56
San Antonio Spurs	West	SW	4.72	-0.01	4.73	54
Oklahoma City Thunder	West	NW	4.14	-0.01	4.15	52
Memphis Grizzlies	West	SW	3.85	-0.05	3.90	51
New York Knicks	East	Atlantic	3.35	-0.26	3.60	51
Atlanta Hawks	East	SE	2.78	-0.30	3.09	49
Denver Nuggets	West	NW	3.09	0.06	3.03	49
Los Angeles Lakers	West	Pacific	2.81	-0.05	2.86	49
Los Angeles Clippers	West	Pacific	2.25	0.03	2.23	47
Indiana Pacers	East	Central	1.73	-0.32	2.05	47
Minnesota Timberwolves	West	NW	1.67	0.10	1.56	45
Boston Celtics	East	Atlantic	0.72	-0.16	0.87	43
Chicago Bulls	East	Central	0.20	-0.14	0.34	42
Philadelphia 76ers	East	Atlantic	0.20	-0.11	0.31	42
Dallas Mavericks	West	SW	0.31	0.17	0.14	41
Milwaukee Bucks	East	Central	-0.05	-0.17	0.12	41
Brooklyn Nets	East	Atlantic	-0.33	-0.13	-0.20	40
Utah Jazz	West	NW	-0.45	0.17	-0.62	39
Washington Wizards	East	SE	-1.13	-0.09	-1.03	38
Phoenix Suns	West	Pacific	-1.27	0.22	-1.49	37
Toronto Raptors	East	Atlantic	-2.09	-0.20	-1.88	36
Portland Trail Blazers	West	NW	-2.17	0.33	-2.50	34
Houston Rockets	West	SW	-2.34	0.25	-2.59	34
New Orleans Hornets	West	SW	-2.28	0.35	-2.64	34
Orlando Magic	East	SE	-2.81	-0.10	-2.72	34
Sacramento Kings	West	Pacific	-2.78	0.32	-3.10	33
Golden State Warriors	West	Pacific	-3.23	0.34	-3.57	31
Detroit Pistons	East	Central	-4.45	-0.10	-4.36	29
Cleveland Cavaliers	East	Central	-5.23	0.11	-5.34	27
Charlotte Bobcats	East	SE	-6.57	0.14	-6.71	24

The Harden trade dropped OKC from around +5.0 to +4.14, or about 3 wins.
Boston’s aging adjustments are killer
ASPM likes the Knicks–it has them with 9(!) players that are at or above average this year, led by Tyson Chandler at +2.40.
Wait-a-second… the Griz are equal to the Lakers? Let’s see:

Team	Player	ASPM	%Min
LAL	Dwight Howard	4.48	53.4%
LAL	Kobe Bryant	3.25	64.9%
LAL	Pau Gasol	1.89	63.4%
LAL	Steve Nash	0.42	57.8%
LAL	Jodie Meeks	-0.13	38.9%
LAL	Metta World Peace	-0.76	50.8%
LAL	Jordan Hill	-1.03	32.6%
LAL	Antawn Jamison	-1.39	49.0%
LAL	Chris Douglas-Roberts	-2.07	11.6%
LAL	Steve Blake	-2.23	40.3%
LAL	Earl Clark	-2.42	12.3%
Mem	Mike Conley	1.98	77.4%
Mem	Marc Gasol	1.90	78.3%
Mem	Rudy Gay	1.26	79.0%
Mem	Tony Allen	1.15	56.7%
Mem	Zach Randolph	0.55	63.9%
Mem	Jerryd Bayless	-0.37	48.5%
Mem	Darrell Arthur	-0.75	31.6%
Mem	Marreese Speights	-1.24	39.6%

Looks like a lot of that particular projection has to do with giving heavy minutes to the relatively young Memphis core, and light minutes to the older LAL core. EDIT: I have fixed this issue with the minutes on Memphis; see updated table at the top.
Playoffs: Miami, NY, ATL, Indiana, Boston, Chicago, Philly, and Milwaukee in the East (with Brooklyn 1 game back), and San Antonio, OKC, Memphis, Denver, LAL, LAC, Minnesota, and Dallas in the West, (with Utah 2 games back).
Isn’t it unfair for one team to have 7 of the top 100 players in the NBA? That’s what the Spurs have, and the worst of those 7 is 76th!

And here are the projected top 100 players in the NBA, by ASPM:

Rank	Player	Team	Age	ASPM
1	LeBron James	MIA	28	7.85
2	Chris Paul	LAC	27	6.52
3	Dwyane Wade	MIA	31	5.15
4	Derrick Rose	CHI	24	4.54
5	Dwight Howard	LAL	27	4.48
6	Kevin Durant	OKC	24	4.45
7	Russell Westbrook	OKC	24	4.04
8	Kevin Love	MIN	24	3.37
9	Kobe Bryant	LAL	34	3.25
10	Kawhi Leonard	SAS	21	2.89
11	Blake Griffin	LAC	23	2.84
12	Tony Parker	SAS	30	2.76
13	Deron Williams	BKN	28	2.72
14	Josh Smith	ATL	27	2.70
15	Manu Ginobili	SAS	35	2.68
16	Paul Millsap	UTA	27	2.69
17	Kyrie Irving	CLE	20	2.65
18	Rajon Rondo	BOS	26	2.52
19	Joakim Noah	CHI	27	2.47
20	Ryan Anderson	NOR	24	2.45
21	Greg Monroe	DET	22	2.39
22	Tyson Chandler	NYK	30	2.40
23	Andrew Bynum	PHI	25	2.38
24	Carmelo Anthony	NYK	28	2.27
25	Paul George	IND	22	2.28
26	Kenneth Faried	DEN	23	2.22
27	Al Horford	ATL	26	2.15
28	James Harden	HOU	23	2.13
29	Jeremy Lin	HOU	24	2.11
30	Kevin Garnett	BOS	36	2.09
31	Marcin Gortat	PHO	28	2.07
32	Brandon Jennings	MIL	23	2.06
33	LaMarcus Aldridge	POR	27	2.04
34	Ty Lawson	DEN	25	2.03
35	Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	34	2.02
36	Mike Conley	MEM	25	1.98
37	Andre Iguodala	DEN	29	1.93
38	Marc Gasol	MEM	28	1.90
39	Pau Gasol	LAL	32	1.89
40	Al Jefferson	UTA	28	1.88
41	Carlos Boozer	CHI	31	1.88
42	Serge Ibaka	OKC	23	1.88
43	Stephen Curry	GSW	24	1.77
44	Kyle Lowry	TOR	26	1.74
45	Paul Pierce	BOS	35	1.75
46	Tim Duncan	SAS	36	1.72
47	Nene Hilario	WSH	30	1.70
48	DeAndre Jordan	LAC	24	1.54
49	Greg Stiemsma	MIN	27	1.52
50	Ricky Rubio	MIN	22	1.46
51	Louis Williams	ATL	26	1.44
52	Brandan Wright	Free Agent	25	1.38
53	Thaddeus Young	PHI	24	1.39
54	DeJuan Blair	SAS	23	1.33
55	Gustavo Ayon	ORL	27	1.28
56	Rudy Gay	MEM	26	1.26
57	Chris Bosh	MIA	28	1.25
58	Jeff Teague	ATL	24	1.25
59	Danny Granger	IND	29	1.22
60	Ersan Ilyasova	MIL	25	1.20
61	Danny Green	SAS	25	1.15
62	Jrue Holiday	PHI	22	1.16
63	Tony Allen	MEM	31	1.15
64	Monta Ellis	MIL	27	1.09
65	John Wall	WSH	22	1.05
66	Nicolas Batum	POR	24	1.06
67	Gerald Wallace	BKN	30	1.03
68	Chris Andersen	Free Agent	34	1.01
69	Ronnie Brewer	NYK	27	1.01
70	Luol Deng	CHI	27	0.95
71	Eric Gordon	NOR	24	0.93
72	Ed Davis	TOR	23	0.89
73	George Hill	IND	26	0.89
74	Jared Dudley	PHO	27	0.89
75	Amir Johnson	TOR	25	0.86
76	Tiago Splitter	SAS	28	0.86
77	Anderson Varejao	CLE	30	0.83
78	Danilo Gallinari	DEN	24	0.84
79	DeMarcus Cousins	SAC	22	0.78
80	Elton Brand	DAL	33	0.76
81	Amare Stoudemire	NYK	30	0.75
82	J.R. Smith	NYK	27	0.74
83	Kevin Martin	OKC	29	0.75
84	Andrew Bogut	GSW	28	0.69
85	JaVale McGee	DEN	25	0.70
86	David West	IND	32	0.65
87	Andris Biedrins	GSW	26	0.61
88	Tyreke Evans	SAC	23	0.61
89	Wesley Matthews	POR	26	0.60
90	Goran Dragic	PHO	26	0.59
91	Joe Johnson	BKN	31	0.58
92	Zach Randolph	MEM	31	0.55
93	Chandler Parsons	HOU	24	0.52
94	Kosta Koufos	DEN	23	0.53
95	Brandon Roy	MIN	28	0.50
96	Roy Hibbert	IND	26	0.50
97	Trevor Ariza	WSH	27	0.49
98	Brook Lopez	BKN	24	0.42
99	Marvin Williams	UTA	26	0.41
100	Steve Nash	LAL	38	0.42

Chosen Stats

Carefully Chosen Sports Stats — Daniel Myers

2013 NBA ASPM Team Projections

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