A few days ago, I put up a massive post on Bayesian Predictive Efficiency Ratings.
Nathan Walker (the Basketball Distribution) commented that I should apply the system to NCAA basketball, and so I have. Thanks to Ken Pomeroy’s incredible NCAA basketball database, the data was quite easy to obtain. Since he already compiles a fully adjusted efficiency rating (well, other than rest), I decided to just use his work as the baseline.
Again, I calculated the standard deviation of the team ratings: over 2004-2010, that came to 14.46. That’s my prior.
I compiled all of the individual game data from Ken’s Gameplans (thanks again, Ken!), and adjusted based on location and opponent. I then generated the Bayesian game standard error and “penalty factor” that best fit these 7 1/2 years of results.
The results (again, I use the same error and penalty for all teams): the game result has a standard error of 16.27; the penalty factor is 0.298. Both of those numbers are higher than the results for the NBA (12 and 0.20), indicating teams are both more erratic and more variable with time than in the NBA.
In the process, I also calculated the best fit home-court advantage and the best fit “Generic non D-1 school” to use for the match-ups with lower division opponents. I should have probably included a separate increase to the standard error for games against the generic non-D-1 school, but I didn’t so far….
Anyway: here are the results:
| Team | Rank | Bayesian | Ken Pom | Margin | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St. | 1 | 31.55 | 1 | 34.40 | 0 |
| Duke | 2 | 30.69 | 2 | 32.80 | 0 |
| Kansas | 3 | 30.13 | 3 | 32.80 | 0 |
| Texas | 4 | 28.81 | 4 | 30.20 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh | 5 | 27.89 | 5 | 29.90 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | 27.85 | 6 | 30.10 | 0 |
| Purdue | 7 | 25.95 | 8 | 27.80 | 1 |
| Brigham Young | 8 | 25.54 | 7 | 28.80 | -1 |
| Washington | 9 | 25.45 | 9 | 27.00 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 10 | 24.26 | 10 | 26.40 | 0 |
| San Diego St. | 11 | 23.31 | 11 | 25.60 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 12 | 22.88 | 12 | 24.00 | 0 |
| Georgetown | 13 | 22.74 | 15 | 24.50 | 2 |
| Notre Dame | 14 | 22.65 | 17 | 23.90 | 3 |
| Villanova | 15 | 22.62 | 13 | 24.90 | -2 |
| Syracuse | 16 | 22.36 | 14 | 24.10 | -2 |
| Arizona | 17 | 22.27 | 16 | 23.80 | -1 |
| George Mason | 18 | 21.12 | 18 | 22.80 | 0 |
| Illinois | 19 | 20.51 | 20 | 21.80 | 1 |
| Connecticut | 20 | 20.41 | 21 | 21.80 | 1 |
| Maryland | 21 | 20.08 | 19 | 21.20 | -2 |
| Vanderbilt | 22 | 20.03 | 23 | 21.70 | 1 |
| West Virginia | 23 | 19.13 | 27 | 20.60 | 4 |
| Virginia Tech | 24 | 19.11 | 25 | 20.60 | 1 |
| Louisville | 25 | 18.98 | 26 | 20.50 | 1 |
| Missouri | 26 | 18.72 | 22 | 21.50 | -4 |
| Utah St. | 27 | 18.52 | 24 | 20.30 | -3 |
| Florida | 28 | 18.40 | 28 | 20.00 | 0 |
| Cincinnati | 29 | 18.12 | 30 | 18.80 | 1 |
| Belmont | 30 | 17.78 | 31 | 19.10 | 1 |
| Nevada Las Vegas | 31 | 17.69 | 29 | 18.90 | -2 |
| Temple | 32 | 17.63 | 32 | 18.50 | 0 |
| Marquette | 33 | 17.50 | 33 | 19.50 | 0 |
| St. John’s | 34 | 16.94 | 36 | 17.80 | 2 |
| St. Mary’s | 35 | 16.76 | 39 | 18.10 | 4 |
| Duquesne | 36 | 16.50 | 35 | 17.80 | -1 |
| Xavier | 37 | 16.40 | 40 | 17.40 | 3 |
| Kansas St. | 38 | 15.97 | 37 | 17.50 | -1 |
| Clemson | 39 | 15.79 | 38 | 17.20 | -1 |
| Minnesota | 40 | 15.76 | 41 | 17.10 | 1 |
| Alabama | 41 | 15.69 | 34 | 17.30 | -7 |
| Wichita St. | 42 | 15.40 | 43 | 16.90 | 1 |
| Texas A&M | 43 | 14.91 | 44 | 16.50 | 1 |
| New Mexico | 44 | 14.88 | 42 | 16.80 | -2 |
| Tennessee | 45 | 14.47 | 48 | 15.40 | 3 |
| Florida St. | 46 | 14.41 | 45 | 14.90 | -1 |
| Gonzaga | 47 | 14.25 | 52 | 14.70 | 5 |
| Michigan St. | 48 | 13.74 | 46 | 16.20 | -2 |
| UCLA | 49 | 13.67 | 50 | 14.60 | 1 |
| Nebraska | 50 | 13.52 | 47 | 14.70 | -3 |
| Washington St. | 51 | 13.51 | 51 | 14.40 | 0 |
| Michigan | 52 | 13.25 | 54 | 14.30 | 2 |
| Penn St. | 53 | 13.12 | 53 | 14.80 | 0 |
| Colorado St. | 54 | 12.80 | 63 | 12.80 | 9 |
| Old Dominion | 55 | 12.67 | 57 | 13.20 | 2 |
| UAB | 56 | 12.48 | 55 | 13.70 | -1 |
| Colorado | 57 | 12.45 | 56 | 14.40 | -1 |
| Butler | 58 | 12.28 | 61 | 13.20 | 3 |
| Seton Hall | 59 | 12.24 | 59 | 12.30 | 0 |
| Southern California | 60 | 12.07 | 58 | 13.20 | -2 |
| Baylor | 61 | 12.02 | 49 | 15.30 | -12 |
| Richmond | 62 | 11.85 | 60 | 13.00 | -2 |
| Georgia | 63 | 11.71 | 62 | 12.50 | -1 |
| College of Charleston | 64 | 11.64 | 71 | 12.10 | 7 |
| Northwestern | 65 | 11.59 | 65 | 13.20 | 0 |
| Mississippi | 66 | 11.49 | 67 | 12.60 | 1 |
| Southern Mississippi | 67 | 11.38 | 70 | 12.10 | 3 |
| Miami FL | 68 | 11.12 | 68 | 12.60 | 0 |
| Cleveland St. | 69 | 11.09 | 64 | 12.50 | -5 |
| Indiana | 70 | 11.02 | 69 | 12.10 | -1 |
| Boston College | 71 | 10.40 | 72 | 12.20 | 1 |
| Texas El Paso | 72 | 10.22 | 66 | 11.60 | -6 |
| Missouri St. | 73 | 10.04 | 77 | 10.40 | 4 |
| California | 74 | 9.92 | 73 | 11.10 | -1 |
| Coastal Carolina | 75 | 9.84 | 86 | 8.80 | 11 |
| Oakland | 76 | 9.54 | 76 | 10.70 | 0 |
| Rutgers | 77 | 9.35 | 75 | 10.40 | -2 |
| Iona | 78 | 9.23 | 81 | 10.10 | 3 |
| Iowa St. | 79 | 9.19 | 74 | 10.50 | -5 |
| North Carolina St. | 80 | 9.17 | 82 | 9.70 | 2 |
| Providence | 81 | 9.09 | 78 | 10.10 | -3 |
| Oklahoma St. | 82 | 9.05 | 83 | 9.40 | 1 |
| Memphis | 83 | 8.87 | 80 | 9.60 | -3 |
| Stanford | 84 | 8.64 | 85 | 9.10 | 1 |
| Valparaiso | 85 | 8.63 | 89 | 8.00 | 4 |
| Iowa | 86 | 8.58 | 84 | 9.00 | -2 |
| Oregon | 87 | 8.52 | 79 | 9.40 | -8 |
| Marshall | 88 | 8.51 | 87 | 8.70 | -1 |
| James Madison | 89 | 8.03 | 88 | 8.70 | -1 |
| Princeton | 90 | 7.56 | 91 | 7.80 | 1 |
| Central Florida | 91 | 7.34 | 92 | 7.60 | 1 |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 92 | 7.27 | 96 | 7.60 | 4 |
| Montana | 93 | 7.11 | 90 | 7.70 | -3 |
| Tulsa | 94 | 6.97 | 94 | 7.60 | 0 |
| Dayton | 95 | 6.93 | 98 | 7.30 | 3 |
| Portland | 96 | 6.90 | 103 | 7.60 | 7 |
| Arkansas | 97 | 6.71 | 93 | 7.60 | -4 |
| South Dakota St. | 98 | 6.67 | 106 | 7.30 | 8 |
| Bucknell | 99 | 6.49 | 97 | 7.30 | -2 |
| Pacific | 100 | 6.36 | 105 | 7.00 | 5 |
| Harvard | 101 | 6.36 | 99 | 7.60 | -2 |
| Drexel | 102 | 6.27 | 101 | 6.70 | -1 |
| Buffalo | 103 | 6.05 | 107 | 6.60 | 4 |
| Georgia Tech | 104 | 5.98 | 95 | 7.20 | -9 |
| Vermont | 105 | 5.94 | 100 | 7.10 | -5 |
| Fairfield | 106 | 5.50 | 102 | 6.80 | -4 |
| East Tennessee St. | 107 | 5.42 | 109 | 5.20 | 2 |
| Boise St. | 108 | 5.28 | 108 | 5.80 | 0 |
| Northern Iowa | 109 | 5.08 | 111 | 5.00 | 2 |
| Creighton | 110 | 4.72 | 112 | 5.10 | 2 |
| Weber St. | 111 | 4.69 | 125 | 4.00 | 14 |
| Rider | 112 | 4.63 | 110 | 5.30 | -2 |
| Indiana St. | 113 | 4.58 | 119 | 4.00 | 6 |
| Long Beach St. | 114 | 4.49 | 104 | 7.10 | -10 |
| Northern Colorado | 115 | 4.49 | 114 | 4.70 | -1 |
| Virginia | 116 | 4.44 | 120 | 4.00 | 4 |
| Austin Peay | 117 | 4.27 | 134 | 2.50 | 17 |
| South Carolina | 118 | 4.25 | 113 | 4.60 | -5 |
| Akron | 119 | 4.23 | 121 | 4.00 | 2 |
| South Florida | 120 | 4.00 | 123 | 3.90 | 3 |
| Long Island | 121 | 3.90 | 124 | 4.10 | 3 |
| Rhode Island | 122 | 3.86 | 117 | 4.20 | -5 |
| New Mexico St. | 123 | 3.81 | 118 | 4.20 | -5 |
| Wright St. | 124 | 3.68 | 115 | 4.60 | -9 |
| Morehead St. | 125 | 3.66 | 116 | 4.40 | -9 |
| Davidson | 126 | 3.65 | 149 | 1.50 | 23 |
| Wofford | 127 | 3.64 | 126 | 3.90 | -1 |
| St. Bonaventure | 128 | 3.48 | 131 | 3.40 | 3 |
| Arizona St. | 129 | 3.20 | 122 | 4.00 | -7 |
| Utah | 130 | 3.00 | 133 | 3.00 | 3 |
| Furman | 131 | 2.99 | 129 | 3.70 | -2 |
| Stephen F. Austin | 132 | 2.95 | 150 | 1.50 | 18 |
| Northern Arizona | 133 | 2.94 | 139 | 2.30 | 6 |
| Kent St. | 134 | 2.71 | 130 | 3.50 | -4 |
| Wisconsin Milwaukee | 135 | 2.54 | 143 | 2.00 | 8 |
| Hofstra | 136 | 2.14 | 137 | 2.30 | 1 |
| Texas Tech | 137 | 2.08 | 135 | 2.60 | -2 |
| Oklahoma | 138 | 2.08 | 128 | 3.60 | -10 |
| Oral Roberts | 139 | 2.07 | 144 | 2.10 | 5 |
| IUPUI | 140 | 1.87 | 142 | 2.20 | 2 |
| Oregon St. | 141 | 1.75 | 151 | 1.30 | 10 |
| Idaho | 142 | 1.66 | 136 | 2.30 | -6 |
| Santa Clara | 143 | 1.64 | 141 | 2.10 | -2 |
| Mississippi St. | 144 | 1.62 | 140 | 2.10 | -4 |
| Air Force | 145 | 1.57 | 127 | 3.80 | -18 |
| Detroit | 146 | 1.54 | 148 | 1.60 | 2 |
| UC Santa Barbara | 147 | 1.51 | 132 | 3.10 | -15 |
| Lipscomb | 148 | 1.43 | 152 | 1.30 | 4 |
| St. Louis | 149 | 1.31 | 156 | 0.80 | 7 |
| Southern Methodist | 150 | 1.27 | 155 | 1.00 | 5 |
| Central Connecticut | 151 | 1.14 | 138 | 2.30 | -13 |
| Robert Morris | 152 | 1.09 | 158 | 0.90 | 6 |
| Nevada | 153 | 1.01 | 147 | 1.70 | -6 |
| Evansville | 154 | 0.83 | 164 | 0.10 | 10 |
| Loyola Chicago | 155 | 0.79 | 160 | 0.70 | 5 |
| Murray St. | 156 | 0.77 | 154 | 1.20 | -2 |
| NC Asheville | 157 | 0.61 | 162 | 0.60 | 5 |
| St. Peter’s | 158 | 0.57 | 157 | 0.80 | -1 |
| Cal Poly | 159 | 0.56 | 145 | 1.70 | -14 |
| East Carolina | 160 | 0.53 | 153 | 1.30 | -7 |
| San Francisco | 161 | 0.39 | 146 | 1.70 | -15 |
| Fresno St. | 162 | 0.24 | 163 | 0.30 | 1 |
| Wisconsin Green Bay | 163 | -0.14 | 165 | -0.10 | 2 |
| Jacksonville | 164 | -0.16 | 159 | 0.80 | -5 |
| North Dakota St. | 165 | -0.24 | 177 | -1.70 | 12 |
| Quinnipiac | 166 | -0.43 | 166 | -0.20 | 0 |
| Yale | 167 | -0.47 | 168 | -0.80 | 1 |
| Rice | 168 | -0.48 | 161 | 0.60 | -7 |
| Ohio | 169 | -0.76 | 170 | -1.10 | 1 |
| Boston University | 170 | -0.97 | 173 | -1.30 | 3 |
| George Washington | 171 | -1.00 | 167 | -0.40 | -4 |
| Western Carolina | 172 | -1.04 | 183 | -2.00 | 11 |
| Arkansas St. | 173 | -1.12 | 204 | -4.20 | 31 |
| Western Michigan | 174 | -1.16 | 191 | -2.80 | 17 |
| Texas Christian | 175 | -1.22 | 178 | -1.70 | 3 |
| La Salle | 176 | -1.24 | 179 | -1.70 | 3 |
| Denver | 177 | -1.27 | 174 | -1.30 | -3 |
| Massachusetts | 178 | -1.30 | 172 | -1.10 | -6 |
| Canisius | 179 | -1.33 | 175 | -1.50 | -4 |
| Tulane | 180 | -1.48 | 176 | -1.60 | -4 |
| American | 181 | -1.59 | 182 | -1.80 | 1 |
| Hawaii | 182 | -1.65 | 171 | -1.10 | -11 |
| DePaul | 183 | -1.86 | 180 | -1.70 | -3 |
| IUPU Fort Wayne | 184 | -1.89 | 189 | -2.80 | 5 |
| Ball St. | 185 | -1.92 | 169 | -0.90 | -16 |
| Loyola MD | 186 | -1.95 | 185 | -2.40 | -1 |
| Charlotte | 187 | -2.17 | 186 | -2.50 | -1 |
| Eastern Kentucky | 188 | -2.23 | 220 | -5.80 | 32 |
| Miami OH | 189 | -2.25 | 187 | -2.60 | -2 |
| Pennsylvania | 190 | -2.29 | 181 | -1.80 | -9 |
| Middle Tennessee | 191 | -2.29 | 190 | -2.70 | -1 |
| NC Wilmington | 192 | -2.34 | 188 | -2.60 | -4 |
| Houston | 193 | -2.47 | 196 | -3.40 | 3 |
| Nicholls St. | 194 | -2.48 | 206 | -4.30 | 12 |
| Florida Atlantic | 195 | -2.66 | 184 | -2.10 | -11 |
| Liberty | 196 | -2.66 | 195 | -3.10 | -1 |
| Maine | 197 | -2.67 | 199 | -3.70 | 2 |
| Charleston Southern | 198 | -2.74 | 222 | -5.90 | 24 |
| Lehigh | 199 | -2.84 | 193 | -3.00 | -6 |
| Delaware | 200 | -2.93 | 194 | -3.00 | -6 |
| North Texas | 201 | -3.06 | 192 | -3.20 | -9 |
| Drake | 202 | -3.08 | 200 | -3.70 | -2 |
| Lamar | 203 | -3.19 | 230 | -6.40 | 27 |
| Virginia Military Inst | 204 | -3.25 | 198 | -3.90 | -6 |
| San Jose St. | 205 | -3.32 | 202 | -3.90 | -3 |
| Cornell | 206 | -3.34 | 197 | -3.60 | -9 |
| Wyoming | 207 | -3.59 | 213 | -4.80 | 6 |
| Western Kentucky | 208 | -3.67 | 205 | -4.30 | -3 |
| Siena | 209 | -3.67 | 203 | -4.10 | -6 |
| Tennessee Tech | 210 | -3.87 | 239 | -7.30 | 29 |
| Utah Valley | 211 | -4.21 | 243 | -8.00 | 32 |
| Saint Joseph’s | 212 | -4.29 | 211 | -4.70 | -1 |
| Northeastern | 213 | -4.31 | 207 | -4.70 | -6 |
| Texas Arlington | 214 | -4.62 | 214 | -4.80 | 0 |
| Loyola Marymount | 215 | -4.71 | 210 | -4.60 | -5 |
| UC Irvine | 216 | -4.77 | 215 | -5.40 | -1 |
| North Florida | 217 | -4.85 | 217 | -5.40 | 0 |
| Sam Houston St. | 218 | -4.86 | 201 | -3.90 | -17 |
| Arkansas Little Rock | 219 | -4.99 | 227 | -6.10 | 8 |
| Winthrop | 220 | -5.03 | 212 | -4.50 | -8 |
| Hampton | 221 | -5.08 | 209 | -4.30 | -12 |
| UC Davis | 222 | -5.08 | 216 | -5.40 | -6 |
| Georgia St. | 223 | -5.13 | 225 | -5.70 | 2 |
| Savannah St. | 224 | -5.22 | 281 | -11.50 | 57 |
| Louisiana St. | 225 | -5.41 | 224 | -5.60 | -1 |
| Pepperdine | 226 | -5.46 | 219 | -5.70 | -7 |
| Columbia | 227 | -5.47 | 208 | -4.50 | -19 |
| William & Mary | 228 | -5.47 | 221 | -6.00 | -7 |
| Southern Illinois | 229 | -5.47 | 232 | -6.20 | 3 |
| Louisiana Tech | 230 | -5.63 | 233 | -6.30 | 3 |
| McNeese St. | 231 | -5.65 | 229 | -6.50 | -2 |
| Holy Cross | 232 | -5.67 | 228 | -6.10 | -4 |
| Mercer | 233 | -5.75 | 223 | -5.80 | -10 |
| Bradley | 234 | -5.82 | 218 | -5.50 | -16 |
| Tennessee St. | 235 | -6.11 | 235 | -7.10 | 0 |
| Appalachian St. | 236 | -6.28 | 226 | -6.20 | -10 |
| Wagner | 237 | -6.28 | 234 | -6.50 | -3 |
| St. Francis NY | 238 | -6.30 | 231 | -6.30 | -7 |
| Auburn | 239 | -6.66 | 246 | -7.90 | 7 |
| Brown | 240 | -6.75 | 244 | -8.10 | 4 |
| Southeastern Louisiana | 241 | -6.76 | 267 | -10.30 | 26 |
| Cal St. Northridge | 242 | -6.96 | 247 | -8.20 | 5 |
| Elon | 243 | -7.14 | 245 | -8.20 | 2 |
| Illinois St. | 244 | -7.19 | 240 | -7.40 | -4 |
| Illinois Chicago | 245 | -7.28 | 254 | -8.50 | 9 |
| Albany | 246 | -7.30 | 241 | -7.60 | -5 |
| Wake Forest | 247 | -7.51 | 242 | -7.90 | -5 |
| Louisiana Lafayette | 248 | -7.52 | 237 | -7.00 | -11 |
| Cal St. Fullerton | 249 | -7.59 | 255 | -9.30 | 6 |
| Jackson St. | 250 | -7.73 | 268 | -9.90 | 18 |
| Missouri Kansas City | 251 | -7.75 | 248 | -8.50 | -3 |
| Youngstown St. | 252 | -7.87 | 253 | -8.80 | 1 |
| Texas Southern | 253 | -7.92 | 250 | -8.30 | -3 |
| Lafayette | 254 | -7.98 | 252 | -8.90 | -2 |
| Texas San Antonio | 255 | -8.01 | 238 | -7.20 | -17 |
| Texas St. | 256 | -8.11 | 236 | -6.80 | -20 |
| New Hampshire | 257 | -8.28 | 265 | -9.40 | 8 |
| Troy | 258 | -8.30 | 264 | -9.70 | 6 |
| Morgan St. | 259 | -8.38 | 251 | -8.50 | -8 |
| Montana St. | 260 | -8.41 | 263 | -9.90 | 3 |
| Campbell | 261 | -8.46 | 249 | -8.50 | -12 |
| Chattanooga | 262 | -8.49 | 277 | -11.60 | 15 |
| Eastern Washington | 263 | -8.52 | 275 | -11.60 | 12 |
| Presbyterian | 264 | -8.56 | 259 | -9.40 | -5 |
| Stony Brook | 265 | -8.63 | 262 | -8.90 | -3 |
| Northern Illinois | 266 | -8.74 | 257 | -9.60 | -9 |
| Bowling Green | 267 | -8.96 | 269 | -9.90 | 2 |
| Eastern Michigan | 268 | -8.97 | 258 | -8.60 | -10 |
| Mount St. Mary’s | 269 | -9.06 | 270 | -9.90 | 1 |
| UC Riverside | 270 | -9.16 | 279 | -11.80 | 9 |
| Army | 271 | -9.44 | 261 | -10.00 | -10 |
| Sacred Heart | 272 | -9.94 | 271 | -10.60 | -1 |
| Towson | 273 | -10.24 | 266 | -10.90 | -7 |
| Portland St. | 274 | -10.37 | 274 | -11.80 | 0 |
| North Carolina A&T | 275 | -10.67 | 278 | -12.20 | 3 |
| Gardner Webb | 276 | -10.73 | 283 | -12.10 | 7 |
| Monmouth | 277 | -10.83 | 280 | -11.70 | 3 |
| Coppin St. | 278 | -10.86 | 256 | -9.50 | -22 |
| San Diego | 279 | -10.89 | 286 | -12.30 | 7 |
| Southern Utah | 280 | -11.06 | 260 | -9.70 | -20 |
| Delaware St. | 281 | -11.10 | 292 | -14.20 | 11 |
| Florida International | 282 | -11.33 | 272 | -11.90 | -10 |
| Central Michigan | 283 | -11.38 | 282 | -11.60 | -1 |
| South Alabama | 284 | -11.56 | 294 | -14.40 | 10 |
| Seattle | 285 | -11.89 | 289 | -12.20 | 4 |
| The Citadel | 286 | -11.92 | 276 | -11.90 | -10 |
| Northwestern St. | 287 | -12.01 | 273 | -11.40 | -14 |
| Navy | 288 | -12.06 | 288 | -12.30 | 0 |
| Bethune Cookman | 289 | -12.09 | 290 | -13.40 | 1 |
| NC Greensboro | 290 | -12.19 | 285 | -13.10 | -5 |
| Fordham | 291 | -12.24 | 287 | -12.80 | -4 |
| Niagara | 292 | -12.54 | 299 | -13.90 | 7 |
| Idaho St. | 293 | -12.65 | 284 | -12.80 | -9 |
| St. Francis PA | 294 | -12.81 | 291 | -13.60 | -3 |
| South Dakota | 295 | -12.83 | 298 | -15.10 | 3 |
| Jacksonville St. | 296 | -12.86 | 293 | -13.30 | -3 |
| Cal St. Bakersfield | 297 | -13.08 | 295 | -14.40 | -2 |
| North Dakota | 298 | -13.10 | 303 | -15.60 | 5 |
| Hartford | 299 | -13.12 | 300 | -14.20 | 1 |
| Norfolk St. | 300 | -13.20 | 297 | -14.90 | -3 |
| Southeast Missouri St. | 301 | -13.36 | 306 | -16.50 | 5 |
| Florida Gulf Coast | 302 | -13.36 | 296 | -14.30 | -6 |
| Mississippi Valley St. | 303 | -13.40 | 302 | -15.10 | -1 |
| Tennessee Martin | 304 | -13.49 | 301 | -14.90 | -3 |
| NJ Inst of Technology | 305 | -13.98 | 315 | -17.50 | 10 |
| North Carolina Central | 306 | -14.30 | 305 | -15.90 | -1 |
| Sacramento St. | 307 | -14.32 | 304 | -15.60 | -3 |
| High Point | 308 | -14.62 | 307 | -16.10 | -1 |
| Bryant | 309 | -15.16 | 310 | -17.60 | 1 |
| Longwood | 310 | -15.65 | 321 | -20.50 | 11 |
| Stetson | 311 | -15.66 | 308 | -16.30 | -3 |
| Eastern Illinois | 312 | -16.01 | 316 | -18.00 | 4 |
| Manhattan | 313 | -16.31 | 314 | -17.80 | 1 |
| Samford | 314 | -16.42 | 309 | -16.60 | -5 |
| Colgate | 315 | -16.49 | 313 | -18.00 | -2 |
| Dartmouth | 316 | -16.65 | 318 | -17.70 | 2 |
| Binghamton | 317 | -16.76 | 311 | -18.10 | -6 |
| Alabama A&M | 318 | -16.77 | 312 | -16.00 | -6 |
| South Carolina Upstate | 319 | -16.83 | 319 | -18.10 | 0 |
| Texas A&M Corpus Chris | 320 | -17.39 | 320 | -18.30 | 0 |
| Kennesaw St. | 321 | -17.51 | 317 | -19.50 | -4 |
| Florida A&M | 322 | -17.90 | 325 | -19.50 | 3 |
| Toledo | 323 | -17.98 | 327 | -21.20 | 4 |
| Radford | 324 | -18.11 | 324 | -19.10 | 0 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 325 | -18.14 | 322 | -19.30 | -3 |
| Central Arkansas | 326 | -18.25 | 333 | -23.10 | 7 |
| Marist | 327 | -18.43 | 323 | -20.10 | -4 |
| Western Illinois | 328 | -19.08 | 331 | -21.00 | 3 |
| Alabama St. | 329 | -19.37 | 328 | -20.60 | -1 |
| Louisiana Monroe | 330 | -20.16 | 329 | -21.90 | -1 |
| Georgia Southern | 331 | -20.37 | 326 | -21.00 | -5 |
| South Carolina St. | 332 | -20.69 | 334 | -23.30 | 2 |
| MD Baltimore County | 333 | -21.07 | 330 | -22.80 | -3 |
| Texas Pan American | 334 | -21.14 | 332 | -23.30 | -2 |
| Prairie View A&M | 335 | -21.56 | 340 | -26.20 | 5 |
| Arkansas Pine Bluff | 336 | -22.28 | 335 | -25.10 | -1 |
| Grambling | 337 | -22.87 | 339 | -24.20 | 2 |
| Alcorn St. | 338 | -24.27 | 341 | -27.30 | 3 |
| SIU Edwardsville | 339 | -24.45 | 342 | -29.00 | 3 |
| Maryland Eastern Shore | 340 | -24.49 | 336 | -27.10 | -4 |
| Howard | 341 | -24.51 | 338 | -25.80 | -3 |
| Houston Baptist | 342 | -25.36 | 337 | -26.20 | -5 |
| Chicago St. | 343 | -30.87 | 343 | -33.50 | 0 |
| Centenary | 344 | -31.73 | 344 | -32.40 | 0 |
| Southern | 345 | -32.61 | 345 | -33.50 | 0 |
And the full spreadsheet, which can do the numbers (it’s a macro, be warned) for any year back to 2004. And has pretty colors: Here’s the Spreadsheet. I think it’s one of my better efforts as a spreadsheet.
March 7th Daily Feast: North Carolina Tops Duke For ACC Title, Ohio State Sets 3-Point Record, Kentucky Wins At Tennessee « Notes from the Sports Nerds
[…] DanielM of DStats published some well-crafted Bayesian efficiency ratings for NCAA basketball. […]