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Game Prediction

WOWY: NBA Finals Edition

May 31, 2011 by Daniel M 1 Comment

It’s time for the With-or-Without-You analysis of the NBA Finals teams: Dallas and Miami. For this review, I will consider a player to not have played (i.e. “Without You”) if the player played 20% or less of their average MPG. This allows us to look into the coach’s rotation decisions a bit more, while still … [Read more…]

Posted in: NBA Stats Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NBA, NBA Playoffs, Statistics, Team Ratings, With-or-Without-You

Final 4 Update

April 2, 2011 by Daniel M Leave a Comment

VCU and Butler have continued their run.  Before the tournament, I had them highly because they elevated their games in the regular season when playing good opponents.  They have both continued that and increased that trend. One confounding issue now with adding the “Raising their Game” (“Ag25” in the table below) bonus is that for … [Read more…]

Posted in: NCAA Basketball Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NCAA Basketball, NCAA Tournament, Statistics, Team Ratings

Sweet 16 Update

March 23, 2011 by Daniel M Leave a Comment

Well, the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is in the books.  I don’t have much time to post, so I’ll make it quick: Predictions did fairly well. In the 8 closest 1st-round games by my pregame predictions (averaging a 52.72% favorite) my stats went only 25%–otherwise, everything matched up really well.  The other 3 … [Read more…]

Posted in: NCAA Basketball Tagged: Bayesian Analysis, Game Prediction, NCAA Tournament, Projections, Statistics, Team Ratings

ASPM Prediction: Magic vs. Heat

February 3, 2011 by Daniel M 1 Comment

The ASPM spreadsheet (download here) has a sheet for estimating a game’s results, based on team rest, location, and the rotation of players expected to play. For a quick example, I’ll look at the Magic vs. Heat game this evening. Here’s the sheet: I estimated the minutes each player would play based upon the rotations … [Read more…]

Posted in: Advanced SPM, ASPM Prediction, NBA Stats Tagged: Advanced SPM, Game Prediction, NBA, Projections, Statistics
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