NCAA Bayesian Ratings, With Projection Prior

In my original Bayesian analysis of the NCAA, I took as the Bayesian prior the overall distribution of NCAA teams. Now, we know more than that–we can create a pretty good projection of how good a team will be based on how good the team has been the previous few years. So let’s do it!

I compiled the Pomeroy Ratings for all teams since 2003, and ran a regression to predict year Y from years Y-1, Y-2, Y-3, and Y-4. I also generated a baseline value for teams that had not been in Division 1 during some of those 4 years. That baseline was calculated as -21.5–if a team doesn’t have a record for one of the years, that number is used instead.

The result of the regression was pretty good: an r^2 of 0.74! The results are as follows:

	Coefficients	Standard Error	t Stat	P-value
Intercept	0.253554	0.1784	1.422	0.155326
Yr-1	0.605098	0.0239	25.265	0.000000
Yr-2	0.090094	0.0279	3.230	0.001261
Yr-3	0.101755	0.0275	3.706	0.000217
Yr-4	0.098581	0.0237	4.167	0.000032

Okay, so now I have a prior. What is the standard error of this? I took the standard deviation of the predicted-actual Pomeroy ratings for the 4 years that I had projections for. The standard deviation was 7.34, and it didn’t vary significantly looking at teams projected high, low, or average. So I will use this projection for the Bayesian prior with a standard deviation of 7.34.

Sideline: interestingly, the most recent year was worth about 6 times what the previous years were worth, and all 3 of the prior years were similar in weighting. The most recent year has the most information about this current crop of players, and the prior years inform more about the tradition of the team. Y-2 has the lowest weighting, implying perhaps that there is something to the cyclical nature of NCAA basketball.

So I have a new prior. I re-ran the fitting of the single-game standard deviation and penalty factors for the Bayesian process (see the original posts for how and why). The results: a single-game standard deviation of 16.06 (down from 16.27 previously) and a penalty factor of 0.349 (up from 0.298 previously). Thus each game is weighted slightly more heavily compared to the prior (except this prior is much more heavily weighted because of its much lower standard deviation), and there is more of a reduction on older games than before.

The results are below. The full spreadsheet is available at Google Docs.

To predict the winner of a game, subtract 1 rating from the other and divide by 15 to convert to a Z-score; then run the NormsDist() of that to get the cumulative distribution function result of that Z-score. For example: Connecticut is playing Louisville right now. Louisville is expected to win this game normsdist((24.5-21.5)/15)=58% of the time.

Rank	Team	Conf	W-L	Bayesian	KenPom	Heat	PreS	DSMRPI	Rank	Seed
1	Ohio St.	B10	30-2	33.74	36.3	1.25	24.91	25.3	1	1
2	Duke	ACC	28-4	31.36	31.9	-0.99	31.31	22.9	4	1
3	Kansas	B12	31-2	30.93	31.2	-1.91	31.23	23.6	3	1
4	Texas	B12	27-6	27.76	29.1	-1.73	22.05	19.8	14	4
5	Pittsburgh	BE	27-5	27.38	28.9	0.21	20.91	21.0	9	3
6	Wisconsin	B10	23-8	26.76	28.1	-1.45	24.37	19.9	13	4
7	Purdue	B10	25-7	25.83	27.1	0.91	20.74	21.9	7	2
8	Kentucky	SEC	23-8	25.61	26.2	-1.26	24.11	17.7	19	5
9	Syracuse	BE	26-7	25.60	25.5	1.88	24.33	20.0	12	3
10	Notre Dame	BE	26-6	25.39	27.4	3.37	18.82	21.4	8	2
11	Brigham Young	MWC	30-3	24.67	26.6	0.72	21.97	22.3	5	2
12	Louisville	BE	25-8	24.51	24.7	4.41	19.90	17.4	21	6
13	North Carolina	ACC	25-6	23.57	24.4	0.28	19.46	22.2	6	2
14	San Diego St.	MWC	31-2	23.10	25.7	0.94	14.77	25.1	2	1
15	Washington	P10	22-10	22.98	24.1	-1.04	18.54	14.7	34	9
16	West Virginia	BE	20-11	21.84	21	-1.51	24.39	18.7	17	5
17	Florida	SEC	25-6	21.71	22.9	3.21	18.47	18.7	16	4
18	Connecticut	BE	25-9	21.53	22.6	1.56	16.87	20.1	11	3
19	Utah St.	WAC	29-3	20.58	22.1	1.92	16.33	16.0	23	6
20	Illinois	B10	19-13	20.22	21.4	-1.06	15.86	15.8	24	6
21	Georgetown	BE	21-10	19.64	18.8	-4.74	23.70	20.9	10	3
22	Clemson	ACC	21-10	19.62	18.9	0.68	20.66	12.2	48	12
23	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	24-8	19.49	20.3	0.47	16.12	16.4	22	6
24	Kansas St.	B12	22-10	19.33	18.7	3.78	23.09	15.4	28	7
25	Vanderbilt	SEC	23-9	19.04	19.9	-0.78	17.37	14.9	33	9
26	Villanova	BE	21-11	19.01	19.6	-3.97	20.58	15.6	26	7
27	Xavier	A10	24-7	18.94	17.9	1.51	21.86	15.3	30	8
28	Marquette	BE	20-14	18.76	18.9	-1.78	20.15	11.9	53	--
29	Gonzaga	WCC	24-9	18.75	18.9	2.91	16.47	11.1	59	13
30	Maryland	ACC	19-14	18.60	17.7	-2.16	22.19	8.3	76	--
31	Cincinnati	BE	25-8	18.53	20.3	1.12	9.73	15.3	29	8
32	Arizona	P10	27-6	18.48	20	-1.97	12.68	19.4	15	4
33	Belmont	ASun	30-4	18.35	22	2.14	3.62	10.8	63	14
34	Virginia Tech	ACC	21-10	18.17	18.4	-0.80	16.65	13.7	37	10
35	Missouri	B12	23-10	18.16	18.6	-2.17	20.08	12.9	40	10
36	Michigan St.	B10	19-13	18.00	17.6	2.43	21.23	17.9	18	5
37	Temple	A10	25-6	17.68	17.6	0.83	16.36	15.7	25	7
38	Texas A&M	B12	24-8	17.34	16.4	0.83	21.73	15.0	32	8
39	St. John's	BE	21-11	16.70	17.9	3.54	10.02	17.5	20	5
40	Florida St.	ACC	21-10	16.51	15.5	-0.34	17.91	13.8	36	9
41	Butler	Horz	23-9	16.34	15.1	1.42	20.99	12.5	42	11
42	St. Mary's	WCC	25-8	16.18	17.1	-2.67	15.36	11.5	56	--
43	Michigan	B10	20-12	16.02	16.8	4.15	12.54	15.1	31	8
44	George Mason	CAA	26-6	15.98	19.5	0.55	3.12	13.4	39	10
45	New Mexico	MWC	21-12	15.87	16.8	-0.29	14.63	10.7	64	--
46	Southern California	P10	19-14	15.52	16	2.14	13.30	11.7	55	--
47	Tennessee	SEC	19-14	15.46	14.2	-1.10	19.48	12.3	45	12
48	Old Dominion	CAA	27-6	15.37	15.1	3.15	14.53	14.1	35	9
49	UCLA	P10	22-10	14.73	14.5	1.53	13.56	13.6	38	10
50	Penn St.	B10	18-13	14.68	16.3	2.57	8.54	15.5	27	7
51	Richmond	A10	25-7	14.37	15.4	1.26	10.27	12.5	44	11
52	Alabama	SEC	21-10	14.31	14.9	-0.64	12.82	9.0	73	--
53	Miami FL	ACC	19-14	14.28	14.1	1.31	15.52	10.3	65	--
54	Washington St.	P10	19-12	14.11	15.1	-2.57	10.37	11.0	61	--
55	Minnesota	B10	17-14	13.96	13.4	-2.97	16.19	12.5	43	11
56	Nebraska	B12	19-12	13.87	14.8	-0.55	10.63	6.6	91	--
57	California	P10	17-14	13.68	12.2	-0.35	20.33	11.2	58	--
58	Seton Hall	BE	13-18	13.60	13.1	1.40	11.32	8.0	79	--
59	Colorado	B12	21-13	13.53	16.3	1.98	7.34	10.8	62	--
60	UAB	CUSA	22-8	13.46	14	0.60	11.79	12.2	46	12
61	Georgia	SEC	21-11	13.05	14	-0.27	9.86	11.8	54	--
62	Boston College	ACC	20-12	12.90	13	2.40	13.45	12.7	41	11
63	Northwestern	B10	18-13	12.77	14.3	-0.60	9.02	12.0	51	--
64	Texas El Paso	CUSA	25-8	12.45	12.4	0.29	13.33	9.7	68	--
65	Wichita St.	MVC	24-8	12.33	13.3	-1.68	9.93	7.5	82	--
66	Mississippi	SEC	20-13	11.90	11.4	-1.02	14.93	7.3	84	--
67	Oklahoma St.	B12	19-13	11.86	10	0.21	16.40	11.3	57	--
68	Baylor	B12	18-13	11.75	10.7	-3.95	22.37	6.0	95	--
69	Iona	MAAC	22-11	11.42	14.1	4.00	0.79	5.5	108	--
70	Oakland	Sum	25-9	10.74	12.6	0.72	2.71	12.0	52	13
71	Duquesne	A10	18-12	10.64	12.5	-3.93	3.11	5.6	106	--
72	Memphis	CUSA	24-9	10.19	7.4	-1.20	20.00	9.9	67	--
73	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	22-10	9.92	12.1	-0.38	6.76	9.6	69	--
74	Missouri St.	MVC	25-8	9.75	9.5	-0.85	10.48	9.6	70	--
75	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	23-11	9.71	8.8	-0.69	14.95	9.5	71	--
76	Iowa St.	B12	16-16	9.51	9.8	-0.83	9.67	2.9	138	--
77	Colorado St.	MWC	19-12	9.38	10.6	-0.55	1.06	12.1	50	13
78	Georgia Tech	ACC	13-18	9.11	7.3	-2.73	17.84	2.5	142	--
79	Dayton	A10	21-12	9.10	7.3	-0.20	15.48	8.1	77	--
80	Marshall	CUSA	22-11	9.02	9.4	0.26	7.42	9.1	72	--
81	Cleveland St.	Horz	26-8	8.78	11	-3.06	2.47	12.1	49	13
82	Boise St.	WAC	20-11	8.50	10	2.39	2.17	6.5	92	--
83	Rutgers	BE	15-17	8.39	10.3	0.89	1.05	7.3	85	--
84	Tulsa	CUSA	19-13	8.33	8	0.90	10.14	7.0	86	--
85	North Carolina St.	ACC	15-16	8.25	7.6	-0.20	11.73	5.7	102	--
86	College of Charleston	SC	24-10	8.21	9.5	-0.69	2.27	7.7	80	--
87	Virginia	ACC	16-15	8.12	6.6	3.82	11.31	6.0	94	--
88	Indiana	B10	12-20	8.10	9.6	-2.18	4.33	2.9	136	--
89	Wofford	SC	21-12	7.99	8.6	3.42	4.19	4.2	121	16
90	Oregon	P10	16-17	7.83	7.8	0.04	8.04	5.6	105	--
91	Harvard	Ivy	23-5	7.76	10.3	1.50	0.22	12.2	47	12
92	Iowa	B10	11-20	7.61	8.5	1.84	3.20	3.7	126	--
93	Providence	BE	15-17	7.47	7.2	-3.37	10.54	4.4	117	--
94	Stanford	P10	15-16	7.38	6.4	-0.11	11.07	3.9	123	--
95	Mississippi St.	SEC	17-14	7.04	4.7	3.13	16.59	3.9	122	--
96	Texas Tech	B12	13-19	6.77	5.5	4.02	11.47	1.7	150	--
97	Arkansas	SEC	18-13	6.43	6.1	-1.11	9.39	3.2	131	--
98	Princeton	Ivy	24-6	6.31	7.8	1.72	0.28	11.1	60	--
99	Arizona St.	P10	12-19	6.07	4.1	-0.55	15.34	3.6	127	--
100	Northern Iowa	MVC	19-13	5.90	3.4	-3.58	15.41	4.5	115	--
101	Morehead St.	OVC	24-9	5.82	7	2.51	2.77	5.9	98	15
102	Portland	WCC	20-11	5.61	6.3	0.50	4.41	7.7	81	--
103	Central Florida	CUSA	19-11	5.46	6.5	-1.88	2.46	6.1	93	--
104	Kent St.	MAC	23-10	5.45	4.8	1.10	9.13	5.8	99	15
105	Valparaiso	Horz	23-11	5.34	5.7	-2.43	0.40	8.7	74	--
106	Creighton	MVC	19-14	5.33	4.4	-0.16	8.55	1.2	155	--
107	Drexel	CAA	21-10	5.26	6.1	-3.47	1.69	8.6	75	--
108	Rhode Island	A10	19-13	5.21	3.7	-0.20	11.79	5.9	97	--
109	Fairfield	MAAC	24-7	5.21	6.9	-1.92	2.62	5.8	100	--
110	Wright St.	Horz	19-14	5.16	4.4	-0.26	10.59	3.9	124	--
111	Indiana St.	MVC	20-13	4.93	4.7	2.15	2.74	6.7	90	15
112	Long Beach St.	BW	22-10	4.91	8	4.07	-0.22	10.1	66	14
113	South Carolina	SEC	14-16	4.64	3.2	-2.40	9.52	4.3	118	--
114	Coastal Carolina	BSth	28-5	4.57	4.7	-1.97	-2.81	5.6	107	--
115	Akron	MAC	22-12	4.55	3.7	2.56	7.16	2.6	141	--
116	Bucknell	Pat	25-8	4.55	7.5	1.06	-5.94	6.8	89	14
117	Montana	BSky	21-10	4.46	4.9	-2.82	3.38	4.9	112	--
118	South Florida	BE	10-23	4.44	3.3	-1.55	8.21	2.9	137	--
119	St. Louis	A10	12-19	4.35	3.3	1.54	6.47	-1.4	184	--
120	East Tennessee St.	ASun	22-11	4.29	4.6	-0.58	1.91	5.7	104	--
121	Oklahoma	B12	14-18	4.22	3.2	-0.38	11.71	3.8	125	--
122	Murray St.	OVC	23-8	4.22	3.3	0.83	9.19	3.6	128	--
123	Oral Roberts	Sum	19-15	3.95	3.4	2.27	4.83	2.7	140	--
124	New Mexico St.	WAC	16-17	3.86	3.2	-1.17	6.47	3.0	134	--
125	James Madison	CAA	21-11	3.73	5.9	-1.94	-4.29	7.4	83	--
126	Rider	MAAC	23-10	3.64	5.3	-0.41	-1.41	6.0	96	--
127	Utah	MWC	13-18	3.57	2.5	-1.37	6.84	5.7	103	--
128	Buffalo	MAC	18-13	3.41	4.3	-2.91	0.44	-0.4	169	--
129	Northern Colorado	BSky	21-10	2.98	4	0.04	-1.05	4.3	119	16
130	St. Peter's	MAAC	20-13	2.96	4.3	2.78	-3.56	5.8	101	15
131	IUPUI	Sum	19-14	2.78	2.4	-0.88	5.02	4.9	113	--
132	Hofstra	CAA	21-11	2.66	2.8	0.42	2.77	8.0	78	--
133	Austin Peay	OVC	20-13	2.46	2.6	-2.14	-2.40	2.2	145	--
134	Davidson	SC	17-14	2.32	-0.1	0.05	4.22	0.6	162	--
135	Nevada	WAC	13-19	2.30	1	0.69	9.47	-0.6	174	--
136	Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	19-13	2.29	1.7	1.69	2.68	6.8	88	--
137	Detroit	Horz	17-16	2.26	2.7	1.63	0.64	2.8	139	--
138	Vermont	AE	23-8	2.18	2.7	-1.80	3.54	3.5	129	16
139	Northern Arizona	BSky	19-12	2.00	3.5	0.24	-5.76	1.0	160	--
140	Air Force	MWC	15-15	1.96	4.8	0.29	-3.50	5.3	111	--
141	Southern Methodist	CUSA	17-14	1.90	1.9	1.83	0.55	-1.4	183	--
142	Ohio	MAC	18-15	1.75	0.3	2.03	7.01	-2.6	199	--
143	South Dakota St.	Sum	19-12	1.74	4.8	-0.36	-6.95	-0.7	176	--
144	Idaho	WAC	18-13	1.69	3.1	2.43	-1.86	3.5	130	--
145	St. Bonaventure	A10	16-14	1.65	1.9	1.58	0.01	2.9	135	--
146	UC Santa Barbara	BW	17-13	1.56	2.7	1.47	1.22	3.0	132	--
147	Pacific	BW	16-15	1.51	1.1	-5.24	4.91	1.1	157	--
148	Long Island	NEC	27-5	1.41	4.1	0.41	-10.18	6.9	87	14
149	Oregon St.	P10	11-20	1.34	0.7	0.30	2.24	-0.9	178	--
150	Robert Morris	NEC	18-14	1.10	1.3	-0.42	-0.30	2.5	143	--
151	Western Michigan	MAC	20-12	0.92	-0.6	2.40	2.67	1.0	159	--
152	Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	14-18	0.84	0.1	-0.65	3.64	1.4	152	--
153	Loyola Chicago	Horz	16-15	0.84	1.8	-0.44	-3.23	-1.7	189	--
154	George Washington	A10	17-14	0.69	0.1	1.03	4.63	1.2	153	--
155	East Carolina	CUSA	18-15	0.60	2.9	0.55	-6.73	5.5	109	--
156	Santa Clara	WCC	19-14	0.28	1.6	-1.11	-3.61	2.2	146	--
157	Weber St.	BSky	18-13	0.14	-1.9	-1.32	3.55	2.0	147	--
158	Boston University	AE	20-13	0.14	-0.7	4.81	2.90	-0.2	168	--
159	Cornell	Ivy	10-18	0.05	-3.1	2.11	11.22	-5.4	233	--
160	San Francisco	WCC	17-14	0.01	1.9	1.24	-3.58	5.5	110	--
161	Lipscomb	ASun	17-13	0.00	0.2	-1.41	-1.22	2.4	144	--
162	Texas Christian	MWC	11-22	-0.07	-0.6	0.43	0.23	-1.9	191	--
163	Fresno St.	WAC	14-17	-0.09	0.2	1.50	-0.65	-0.9	179	--
164	NC Asheville	BSth	19-13	-0.43	2.3	0.91	-11.13	0.2	165	17
165	North Dakota St.	Sum	14-15	-0.48	-1.2	1.28	-2.59	-4.1	221	--
166	La Salle	A10	15-18	-0.51	-0.8	0.18	0.88	-1.6	186	--
167	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	18-13	-0.69	-1	2.02	5.76	-0.5	170	--
168	Rice	CUSA	14-18	-0.81	1.5	1.30	-7.15	-0.2	167	--
169	Hawaii	WAC	18-12	-0.81	0.8	2.83	-4.78	1.1	158	--
170	Northeastern	CAA	11-20	-0.88	-3.2	1.81	7.60	-2.9	202	--
171	North Texas	SB	22-11	-0.90	-1.5	0.79	0.58	-0.5	172	--
172	San Jose St.	WAC	17-15	-1.04	-1	1.39	-3.02	1.8	149	--
173	Saint Joseph's	A10	11-21	-1.09	-2.3	1.82	3.31	-0.5	171	--
174	Miami OH	MAC	16-16	-1.15	-2.9	-0.40	4.57	4.3	120	--
175	Furman	SC	22-10	-1.18	0.9	-3.29	-7.92	4.5	116	--
176	Houston	CUSA	12-18	-1.21	-4.4	-2.34	9.98	-3.6	211	--
177	Middle Tennessee	SB	16-16	-1.37	-1.7	1.62	0.38	-5.6	238	--
178	Quinnipiac	NEC	22-9	-1.41	-0.6	2.37	-4.34	-0.5	173	--
179	Arkansas St.	SB	17-15	-1.42	-3.2	2.50	-4.05	-1.8	190	--
180	Bradley	MVC	12-20	-1.60	-3.7	4.46	7.34	-5.3	232	--
181	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	18-11	-1.62	-3.7	-3.93	1.77	-4.9	230	--
182	Auburn	SEC	11-20	-1.63	-5.2	0.96	8.95	-6.3	253	--
183	Massachusetts	A10	15-15	-1.73	-3	-4.07	4.09	0.5	164	--
184	Siena	MAAC	13-18	-1.77	-5.1	-3.80	11.22	-3.8	213	--
185	Jacksonville	ASun	19-11	-1.83	-1.4	-2.25	0.46	2.0	148	--
186	Canisius	MAAC	15-15	-1.88	-1.1	-0.15	-4.95	-2.4	195	--
187	Western Carolina	SC	18-15	-1.99	-2.5	-0.77	-1.85	0.7	161	--
188	Tulane	CUSA	13-17	-2.11	-1.8	-2.32	-2.42	-3.4	207	--
189	Loyola MD	MAAC	15-15	-2.14	-1.8	1.30	-3.96	-2.5	196	--
190	Evansville	MVC	15-15	-2.36	-3.1	-1.13	-1.96	1.2	156	--
191	Cal Poly	BW	15-15	-2.38	-0.2	4.22	-7.86	-0.6	175	--
192	Charlotte	A10	10-20	-2.38	-4.9	-2.67	6.51	-3.9	215	--
193	IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	18-12	-2.42	-2.1	1.70	-6.31	-1.2	181	--
194	Central Connecticut	NEC	19-12	-2.89	0.1	-0.87	-11.37	-1.6	187	--
195	Ball St.	MAC	19-13	-2.96	-1.3	-0.18	-5.50	-0.8	177	--
196	DePaul	BE	7-24	-3.17	-4.4	1.10	3.03	-3.4	208	--
197	American	Pat	22-9	-3.21	-2.3	1.25	-7.25	3.0	133	--
198	Tennessee Tech	OVC	20-12	-3.23	-4.4	1.93	-7.63	-1.3	182	--
199	Lehigh	Pat	16-15	-3.45	-3.6	-0.93	-2.66	-3.7	212	--
200	Western Kentucky	SB	16-16	-3.51	-6.1	-1.67	6.40	-3.9	218	--
201	Drake	MVC	13-18	-3.54	-5.6	1.68	4.04	-4.3	223	--
202	William & Mary	CAA	10-22	-3.66	-5.3	1.96	2.73	-5.5	237	--
203	Florida Atlantic	SB	21-10	-3.69	-2.6	-3.13	-4.98	4.6	114	--
204	Appalachian St.	SC	16-15	-3.74	-5.5	1.15	4.52	-1.2	180	--
205	Yale	Ivy	15-13	-3.99	-3.1	-0.79	-7.79	-0.1	166	--
206	Southern Illinois	MVC	13-19	-4.06	-7.1	-2.28	7.31	-4.0	219	--
207	Louisiana St.	SEC	11-21	-4.07	-6	0.27	3.99	-5.7	241	--
208	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	15-16	-4.28	-7.4	-1.96	-1.92	-6.3	252	--
209	Wyoming	MWC	10-21	-4.28	-4.7	2.31	-4.35	-3.9	214	--
210	Mercer	ASun	15-18	-4.30	-3.7	2.21	-6.22	-4.6	228	--
211	Pennsylvania	Ivy	13-15	-4.38	-2	-0.60	-10.64	-1.6	188	--
212	McNeese St.	Slnd	21-10	-4.46	-3.3	3.77	-10.29	1.4	151	16
213	Illinois St.	MVC	12-19	-4.52	-7.8	-0.99	9.57	-8.7	279	--
214	Loyola Marymount	WCC	11-21	-4.60	-4	-0.65	-5.62	-5.7	239	--
215	Wake Forest	ACC	8-24	-4.64	-9.1	-1.24	13.68	-6.2	249	--
216	Delaware	CAA	14-17	-4.74	-3.6	0.17	-8.34	0.5	163	--
217	Maine	AE	15-15	-4.89	-5	-5.47	-7.23	-5.9	244	--
218	Denver	SB	13-17	-5.10	-4.7	-1.93	-4.55	-7.6	265	--
219	Cal St. Northridge	BW	14-18	-5.25	-6	0.45	-4.08	-3.3	206	--
220	Stony Brook	AE	15-16	-5.25	-5.4	1.55	-3.89	-7.3	262	--
221	Arkansas Little Rock	SB	19-16	-5.36	-4.9	1.03	-9.32	-2.2	194	17
222	NC Wilmington	CAA	13-18	-5.42	-5.4	-0.90	-5.63	-3.5	209	--
223	Georgia St.	CAA	12-19	-5.51	-6	-0.72	-4.22	-6.2	247	--
224	Charleston Southern	BSth	16-16	-5.55	-5.6	-0.41	-14.96	-4.3	225	--
225	Holy Cross	Pat	8-21	-5.61	-6.3	-1.41	-3.50	-11.9	310	--
226	UC Irvine	BW	13-19	-5.71	-5.6	-2.29	-6.89	-5.7	240	--
227	Winthrop	BSth	13-17	-5.77	-5.9	-0.07	-2.47	-5.2	231	--
228	Lamar	Slnd	13-17	-5.80	-6.9	-1.05	-9.33	-7.7	266	--
229	Hampton	MEAC	23-8	-5.84	-4.8	-0.40	-5.66	-1.9	192	17
230	Virginia Military Inst	BSth	18-13	-6.02	-4	0.53	-15.19	-2.6	198	--
231	Nicholls St.	Slnd	14-14	-6.36	-6.2	-3.21	-9.44	-3.5	210	--
232	Louisiana Lafayette	SB	14-15	-6.54	-6.2	3.40	-4.89	-5.4	235	--
233	Louisiana Tech	WAC	12-20	-6.55	-8.5	-2.49	0.56	-4.1	220	--
234	Lafayette	Pat	13-19	-6.68	-6.3	3.30	-9.20	-5.9	245	--
235	Texas San Antonio	Slnd	18-13	-6.69	-6	1.76	-5.62	-2.5	197	--
236	St. Francis NY	NEC	15-15	-6.88	-4.7	3.56	-13.91	-6.3	251	--
237	Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	15-14	-6.92	-9.6	-0.11	-3.51	-2.9	203	--
238	Morgan St.	MEAC	17-13	-7.05	-7.7	1.14	-1.06	-6.2	250	--
239	Savannah St.	ind	11-18	-7.07	-11.1	3.85	-14.90	-2.8	200	--
240	Bowling Green	MAC	14-19	-7.14	-8.3	-1.34	-2.96	-5.8	243	--
241	Pepperdine	WCC	12-21	-7.20	-6.2	2.05	-11.50	-3.2	204	--
242	Elon	SC	14-17	-7.49	-7.7	-1.77	-8.87	-4.8	229	--
243	Tennessee St.	OVC	14-16	-7.55	-7.2	-3.10	-8.99	-4.4	227	--
244	Liberty	BSth	19-13	-7.58	-7.1	-2.73	-10.56	-1.5	185	--
245	Columbia	Ivy	15-13	-7.77	-5.7	-2.14	-11.65	-2.8	201	--
246	Brown	Ivy	11-17	-7.83	-8.1	1.37	-9.45	-7.3	263	--
247	UC Davis	BW	10-20	-7.87	-7.8	-1.53	-8.58	-7.8	271	--
248	Texas Arlington	Slnd	13-16	-7.97	-8.5	-3.38	-6.18	-6.4	254	--
249	Illinois Chicago	Horz	7-24	-7.98	-9.6	1.58	-4.00	-7.7	269	--
250	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	11-20	-8.03	-10.2	-1.23	-3.02	-7.8	270	--
251	Youngstown St.	Horz	9-21	-8.12	-9.3	0.90	-5.05	-7.1	258	--
252	Albany	AE	16-16	-8.13	-7.9	-1.26	-9.79	-5.9	246	--
253	Montana St.	BSky	13-18	-8.23	-9.7	-1.86	-5.08	-5.5	236	--
254	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	11-21	-8.60	-10.5	-0.54	-0.69	-7.2	261	--
255	North Florida	ASun	15-19	-8.61	-7.2	-1.46	-14.38	1.2	154	--
256	Eastern Washington	BSky	10-20	-8.63	-10	1.15	-10.13	-7.7	266	--
257	Texas St.	Slnd	16-16	-8.68	-7.9	1.24	-7.15	-6.8	255	--
258	Campbell	ASun	12-19	-8.76	-9.9	-4.07	-2.75	-9.2	282	--
259	Portland St.	BSky	14-16	-8.89	-11.7	-1.73	-0.97	-7.1	260	--
260	UC Riverside	BW	12-19	-9.08	-10.8	-0.11	-8.05	-4.1	222	--
261	Utah Valley	GWC	19-11	-9.18	-9.8	-1.01	-17.26	-7.7	268	--
262	Troy	SB	8-21	-9.38	-11.6	-1.19	-2.26	-9.2	283	--
263	Chattanooga	SC	16-16	-9.51	-12.2	-0.22	-5.99	-2.1	193	--
264	Seattle	ind	11-20	-9.84	-10	0.49	-6.78	-7.1	259	--
265	Wagner	NEC	13-17	-9.86	-7.5	-2.31	-17.67	-3.9	217	--
266	Sacred Heart	NEC	11-18	-10.18	-10.8	0.49	-8.90	-10.1	296	--
267	South Alabama	SB	12-16	-10.61	-13.8	-0.53	-4.62	-8.1	274	--
268	Eastern Michigan	MAC	9-22	-10.61	-11.8	-0.87	-3.00	-11.9	309	--
269	Central Michigan	MAC	10-21	-10.61	-12.1	-0.83	-2.57	-9.4	287	--
270	Niagara	MAAC	9-23	-10.62	-14.5	0.51	3.77	-10.0	294	--
271	Towson	CAA	4-26	-10.96	-11.9	-0.52	-7.24	-13.7	322	--
272	San Diego	WCC	6-24	-10.99	-14	0.56	-2.39	-8.4	276	--
273	NC Greensboro	SC	7-24	-11.04	-12.3	0.87	-6.40	-11.4	304	--
274	Northwestern St.	Slnd	18-14	-11.13	-9.9	1.25	-11.76	-5.4	234	--
275	Navy	Pat	11-20	-11.18	-10.7	1.75	-10.67	-10.2	297	--
276	Northern Illinois	MAC	9-21	-11.18	-11.9	-2.90	-7.94	-10.5	298	--
277	Southern Utah	Sum	11-19	-11.48	-9.1	3.83	-14.74	-9.6	291	--
278	Jackson St.	SWAC	17-15	-11.57	-12.8	-2.99	-11.62	-9.5	290	--
279	Gardner Webb	BSth	11-21	-11.75	-10.6	2.39	-16.38	-5.8	242	--
280	Presbyterian	BSth	13-18	-11.85	-10.3	-2.05	-18.60	-3.3	205	--
281	The Citadel	SC	10-22	-11.89	-12.7	-3.98	-5.68	-9.3	286	--
282	Jacksonville St.	OVC	5-25	-11.98	-12.1	3.10	-11.07	-16.4	335	--
283	Missouri Kansas City	Sum	16-14	-12.33	-12.1	-1.07	-12.01	-3.9	216	--
284	Coppin St.	MEAC	16-14	-12.37	-9.3	1.90	-17.33	-6.8	256	--
285	New Hampshire	AE	12-18	-12.40	-13.1	-1.27	-10.19	-9.3	285	--
286	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	10-20	-12.41	-11.7	3.69	-14.18	-9.5	288	--
287	Army	Pat	11-19	-12.48	-13	-4.77	-9.31	-10.0	293	--
288	Eastern Illinois	OVC	9-20	-12.52	-14.7	-4.12	-6.63	-11.5	305	--
289	Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	10-22	-12.53	-13.4	4.22	-15.64	-11.3	303	--
290	South Dakota	GWC	18-14	-12.59	-14.1	-0.52	-11.50	-10.5	299	--
291	Monmouth	NEC	9-21	-12.74	-12.4	1.83	-13.93	-12.9	317	--
292	Manhattan	MAAC	6-25	-12.82	-15.5	0.78	-3.58	-12.5	315	--
293	Florida International	SB	11-19	-13.13	-13.3	-0.62	-12.16	-10.7	300	--
294	Fordham	A10	7-21	-13.42	-13.6	-0.67	-10.32	-9.7	292	--
295	Bethune Cookman	MEAC	21-12	-13.50	-14	2.41	-14.90	-4.3	224	--
296	St. Francis PA	NEC	9-21	-13.59	-12.9	-0.59	-16.30	-9.5	289	--
297	Texas Southern	SWAC	19-12	-13.70	-12.8	-3.40	-14.05	-4.4	226	17
298	Norfolk St.	MEAC	12-20	-13.93	-14.8	-1.17	-11.94	-11.6	307	--
299	Tennessee Martin	OVC	12-21	-13.93	-14.2	0.55	-15.10	-8.6	278	--
300	Hartford	AE	11-20	-14.08	-14.1	-1.81	-14.06	-11.2	302	--
301	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	15-17	-14.10	-14.7	-0.45	-14.20	-6.2	248	--
302	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	10-21	-14.13	-17.4	-1.09	-0.63	-8.1	273	--
303	Alabama St.	SWAC	16-17	-14.61	-15.1	7.12	-12.17	-11.0	301	--
304	Delaware St.	MEAC	9-21	-14.69	-17	-5.00	-10.54	-11.6	306	--
305	Idaho St.	BSky	9-20	-15.06	-15.5	-1.72	-10.88	-8.4	277	--
306	High Point	BSth	12-19	-15.48	-17.1	-0.24	-10.47	-7.8	272	--
307	Stetson	ASun	8-23	-15.77	-15	1.20	-17.53	-11.9	311	--
308	Binghamton	AE	8-23	-15.93	-18.1	3.85	-8.97	-14.1	324	--
309	Longwood	ind	12-19	-16.09	-20.5	3.28	-15.44	-7.6	264	--
310	Samford	SC	12-19	-16.56	-17.7	-2.35	-8.53	-8.8	280	--
311	Marist	MAAC	6-27	-16.62	-18	1.66	-13.92	-11.8	308	--
312	North Dakota	GWC	18-14	-16.85	-15.4	0.32	-24.02	-8.3	275	--
313	Colgate	Pat	7-23	-16.94	-18.8	1.27	-11.04	-13.3	318	--
314	NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	15-15	-16.97	-16.1	1.82	-24.95	-11.9	313	--
315	South Carolina Upstate	ASun	5-25	-17.13	-18.6	-2.60	-12.15	-11.9	312	--
316	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	13-19	-17.20	-17.3	-3.22	-18.63	-9.0	281	--
317	North Carolina Central	ind	15-14	-17.25	-16.3	-1.11	-22.92	-7.0	257	--
318	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	5-24	-17.75	-18	-2.24	-16.22	-17.6	338	--
319	Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	9-19	-17.78	-18.9	-7.43	-13.22	-10.1	295	--
320	Kennesaw St.	ASun	8-23	-17.80	-19.8	1.68	-12.75	-12.3	314	--
321	Sacramento St.	BSky	7-21	-18.17	-19.1	0.11	-15.54	-13.6	320	--
322	Bryant	NEC	9-21	-18.27	-17.3	-2.41	-26.51	-9.2	284	--
323	South Carolina St.	MEAC	10-22	-18.76	-21	0.15	-10.72	-17.3	337	--
324	Radford	BSth	5-24	-18.80	-21.5	-0.72	-7.38	-13.6	321	--
325	Georgia Southern	SC	5-27	-19.02	-20.2	0.96	-10.08	-16.8	336	--
326	Louisiana Monroe	SB	7-24	-19.35	-21.7	-1.84	-10.77	-14.6	325	--
327	Western Illinois	Sum	7-23	-19.41	-21.9	-2.14	-11.11	-14.8	327	--
328	Dartmouth	Ivy	5-23	-19.90	-19.4	-2.59	-19.81	-13.4	319	--
329	Central Arkansas	Slnd	5-24	-20.14	-24.2	-3.00	-13.71	-17.9	339	--
330	Florida A&M	MEAC	12-20	-20.30	-20.6	-1.07	-19.02	-13.9	323	--
331	Alabama A&M	SWAC	13-15	-20.33	-18.4	-1.29	-20.74	-14.7	326	--
332	Toledo	MAC	4-28	-20.70	-24.2	-2.73	-13.63	-15.9	332	--
333	Grambling	SWAC	12-20	-21.04	-20.5	7.11	-25.08	-15.0	329	--
334	Prairie View A&M	SWAC	10-22	-21.60	-24.2	-0.08	-17.03	-15.4	330	--
335	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	7-24	-21.90	-25.9	-2.04	-9.51	-16.4	334	--
336	Texas Pan American	GWC	6-25	-22.21	-23.6	-1.51	-17.03	-19.6	341	--
337	MD Baltimore County	AE	5-25	-23.40	-25.9	-2.23	-14.36	-16.3	333	--
338	Houston Baptist	GWC	5-26	-23.79	-24.5	0.52	-18.60	-23.7	344	--
339	Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	9-22	-23.83	-24.8	0.65	-21.97	-15.0	328	--
340	SIU Edwardsville	ind	8-21	-24.89	-29.9	0.31	-20.98	-12.6	316	--
341	Howard	MEAC	6-24	-25.82	-26.2	0.27	-23.15	-21.0	343	--
342	Alcorn St.	SWAC	4-24	-27.64	-27.7	0.57	-30.26	-19.8	342	--
343	Centenary	Sum	1-29	-29.25	-31.3	1.97	-15.84	-18.9	340	--
344	Chicago St.	GWC	6-26	-32.28	-36	-2.66	-19.05	-15.7	331	--
345	Southern	SWAC	4-26	-33.45	-34.8	-3.54	-23.70	-25.2	345	--

Chosen Stats

Carefully Chosen Sports Stats — Daniel Myers

NCAA Bayesian Ratings, With Projection Prior

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