VCU and Butler have continued their run. Before the tournament, I had them ranked relatively highly because they elevated their games in the regular season when playing good opponents. They have both continued that and increased that trend.
One confounding issue now with adding the “Raising their Game” (“Ag25” in the table below) bonus is that for Butler and VCU, most of their games against good teams have come in the tournament, so the Bayesian recency adjustment is probably picking up on that to some extent already. I need to do more research on that.
Here’s the latest data:
| O | Sd | Re | Team | Conf | W-L | Bayes | Rk | Ag25 | Tourney | Rk | GmErr | 2 | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | E | Kentucky | SEC | 29-8 | 27.18 | 4 | 0.27 | 27.44 | 3 | 9.79 | 59.3% | 38.8% |
| 2 | 3 | W | Connecticut | BE | 30-9 | 23.49 | 10 | 1.67 | 25.17 | 9 | 9.87 | 40.7% | 23.2% |
| 3 | 11 | SW | VCU | CAA | 28-11 | 15.43 | 46 | 7.69 | 23.12 | 17 | 11.18 | 53.6% | 21.2% |
| 4 | 8 | SE | Butler | Horz | 27-9 | 18.14 | 29 | 3.49 | 21.63 | 18 | 12.07 | 46.4% | 16.8% |