NFL Football

NFL: Adjusted Points per Possession

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As the NFL playoffs approach, I was looking around for some good, adjusted performance data on the teams. In the NBA, we would immediately look at adjusted efficiencies–Points per 100 Possessions, adjusted for opponent. That data isn’t available in the NFL; in fact, it is hard to locate data on possession-based stats at all. Many … [Read more…]

2012 Basic NFL Predictions

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The NFL season begins tonight, and there are predictions flying everywhere. I thought I’d take a basic analytical approach and produce a baseline projection. If your predictions can’t beat this (dumb) system, you aren’t very good at predictions! What got me started down this trail was Bill Barnwell’s article on Grantland breaking down some good … [Read more…]