Well, the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is in the books. I don’t have much time to post, so I’ll make it quick:
- Predictions did fairly well.
- In the 8 closest 1st-round games by my pregame predictions (averaging a 52.72% favorite) my stats went only 25%–otherwise, everything matched up really well. The other 3 sets: top 8 predicted 96.7% actual 100%, next 8 predicted 85% actual 87.5% (the Louisville loss) next 8 predicted 59.9% actual 62.5%.
The updated table (Bayesian here does not include the manual tweaks for players back/injured or the “playing to opposition” adjustment”)
| O | Sd | Re | Team | Bayesian | Tourney | GmErr | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Finals | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | E | Ohio St. | 33.47 | 33.25 | 10.47 | 71.562 | 58.428 | 38.967 | 28.1237 |
| 8 | 4 | E | Kentucky | 27.05 | 26.85 | 10.14 | 28.438 | 18.216 | 8.024 | 4.2294 |
| 11 | 11 | E | Marquette | 18.70 | 19.67 | 9.88 | 43.439 | 8.645 | 2.308 | 0.8302 |
| 16 | 2 | E | North Carolina | 23.04 | 23.30 | 11.28 | 56.561 | 14.711 | 4.962 | 2.1065 |
| 19 | 1 | W | Duke | 32.26 | 29.20 | 8.65 | 89.701 | 60.519 | 31.556 | 20.4366 |
| 23 | 5 | W | Arizona | 18.43 | 15.26 | 9.86 | 10.299 | 2.288 | 0.354 | 0.0838 |
| 27 | 3 | W | Connecticut | 21.70 | 23.35 | 9.43 | 43.701 | 14.858 | 5.062 | 2.3184 |
| 34 | 2 | W | San Diego St. | 24.10 | 26.72 | 9.97 | 56.299 | 22.336 | 8.768 | 4.5140 |
| 36 | 1 | SW | Kansas | 31.42 | 30.00 | 10.78 | 82.041 | 60.236 | 38.476 | 17.9515 |
| 41 | 12 | SW | Richmond | 15.10 | 14.29 | 10.62 | 17.959 | 6.653 | 2.048 | 0.3261 |
| 46 | 11 | SW | Virginia Commonwealth | 9.32 | 13.06 | 9.95 | 51.732 | 17.979 | 7.689 | 1.9926 |
| 49 | 10 | SW | Florida St. | 16.66 | 15.50 | 7.08 | 48.268 | 15.132 | 6.095 | 1.3161 |
| 56 | 8 | SE | Butler | 16.32 | 19.35 | 12.55 | 32.360 | 14.557 | 5.222 | 1.2737 |
| 60 | 4 | SE | Wisconsin | 26.79 | 26.15 | 11.94 | 67.640 | 42.978 | 23.260 | 9.6300 |
| 61 | 3 | SE | Brigham Young | 23.40 | 24.75 | 11.11 | 43.598 | 17.024 | 6.258 | 1.5381 |
| 68 | 2 | SE | Florida | 21.50 | 23.24 | 11.59 | 56.402 | 25.441 | 10.953 | 3.3293 |