As part of the calculation of Playoff Box Plus/Minus, adjusted team ratings for each team in the playoffs are compiled. This number portrays how the team performed in the playoffs only, without regard to their regular season performance. Kevin Pelton has done similar work for ESPN Insider, but these independent ratings could be interesting. The … [Read more…]
There have been a ton of NBA Draft Lottery ideas kicking around since the Philadelphia 76ers started their recent tanking odyssey. Recently at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver summarized several of the options and put forward his own wins-based proposal. The idea behind that tweak to the system is to reduce the “value” of any given loss. … [Read more…]
I’ve been playing around with an update to Hall Rating and thought I’d try to turn it into a Top 100 list, since I’ve been following the RealGM Top 100 Project debates. I’m using Win Shares as my basis here (so I can get all of NBA history), with all of the caveats that implies. … [Read more…]
A quick update to , using a newer ASPM regression. The data here includes only data from 1978 to 2014, so players who started their careers before 1978 will be underrepresented. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, for instance, was already 30 in 1978–and he had a hall of fame career after that! Hall Rating, as currently constituted, is … [Read more…]
At long last, historical Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus and VORP has been released! The permanent page is located at http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/aspm-and-vorp/historical-nba-aspm/. Reminder: the full statistical derivation for Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus and Value over Replacement Player is available for critique. In addition, this visualization is including Hall Rating, a new stat modeled after the Hall of Stats’ approach … [Read more…]
Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus (ASPM) is now available for NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball! ASPM was originally derived for the NBA, but the weights found for each event, as well as the methods for adjusting for opposition, should be equally valid for college basketball. The full Tableau visualization will be permanently located at http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/aspm-and-vorp/ncaa-advanced-statistical-plus-minus-and-vorp/, under the … [Read more…]
As the NFL playoffs approach, I was looking around for some good, adjusted performance data on the teams. In the NBA, we would immediately look at adjusted efficiencies–Points per 100 Possessions, adjusted for opponent. That data isn’t available in the NFL; in fact, it is hard to locate data on possession-based stats at all. Many … [Read more…]
I have added another pane to my 2012-13 ASPM/VORP Tableau Visualization, allowing a better look at the distribution of talent across positions in the NBA. Powered by Tableau The new position vs. ASPM chart is quite interesting: there is an amazing lack of talent/performance right now at the 2,3, and 4 positions outside of a … [Read more…]
A quick note: 2012-2013 ASPM & VORP have now been released! See the new 2013 ASPM page. A few early notes: The cream is already rising to the top after 4 to 8 games for each team. LeBron James is #1 in total VORP, with an ASPM almost exactly the same as last year. The … [Read more…]
A week ago, I discussed overrated and underrated players over the past 12 years, evaluated by comparing popular box-score stats with Jeremias Engelmann’s 12 year average Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM) dataset. For a primer on the virtues of RAPM (in large samples), see my article reviewing the state-of-the-art of adjusted plus/minus and stabilization. This time, … [Read more…]