Projections

On Bayesian Predictive Efficiency Rankings

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Bayesian Update

It is fairly easy to construct a retrospective efficiency rating. Take the efficiencies for each game, correct for location and rest, and then solve using an OLS regression for each team’s true efficiency rating. Nice and neat. However, how should a predictive rating work? The best approach would be to adjust for what players are … [Read more…]

ASPM Prediction: Magic vs. Heat

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The ASPM spreadsheet (download here) has a sheet for estimating a game’s results, based on team rest, location, and the rotation of players expected to play. For a quick example, I’ll look at the Magic vs. Heat game this evening. Here’s the sheet: I estimated the minutes each player would play based upon the rotations … [Read more…]