I’ve been playing around with an update to Hall Rating and thought I’d try to turn it into a Top 100 list, since I’ve been following the RealGM Top 100 Project debates. I’m using Win Shares as my basis here (so I can get all of NBA history), with all of the caveats that implies. … [Read more…]
I have added another pane to my 2012-13 ASPM/VORP Tableau Visualization, allowing a better look at the distribution of talent across positions in the NBA. Powered by Tableau The new position vs. ASPM chart is quite interesting: there is an amazing lack of talent/performance right now at the 2,3, and 4 positions outside of a … [Read more…]
A quick note: 2012-2013 ASPM & VORP have now been released! See the new 2013 ASPM page. A few early notes: The cream is already rising to the top after 4 to 8 games for each team. LeBron James is #1 in total VORP, with an ASPM almost exactly the same as last year. The … [Read more…]
A week ago, I discussed overrated and underrated players over the past 12 years, evaluated by comparing popular box-score stats with Jeremias Engelmann’s 12 year average Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM) dataset. For a primer on the virtues of RAPM (in large samples), see my article reviewing the state-of-the-art of adjusted plus/minus and stabilization. This time, … [Read more…]
In several of my recent articles, I have been using Jeremias Engelmann’s 12 year average RAPM dataset. Here, I will look at what players may have been underrated or overrated by even advanced stats over the course of the last 12 years. I decided to use PER and WS/48 as my advanced stats to compare … [Read more…]
One of the big ongoing questions in NBA stats and player valuation is where to set “replacement level”. I believe an empirical approach to determining that level is best. Jeremias Engelmann has produced an outstanding resource in his 12 year average RAPM data. Since so many years are used, it is quite stable; however, one … [Read more…]
Here are my 2013 NBA Team Projections, based on my ASPM player projections. For playing time, I roughly used ESPN’s Fantasy Projections, tweaked so each team totaled 475% of the minutes (I assumed the rest of the minutes would go to replacement level (-3.25) players). Here are my regular season projections: I have updated these … [Read more…]
As I prepare to release my first work based on the Adjusted Plus/Minus and derivative methods, I felt it would be wise to write a plain-English review of the state-of-the-art of Adjusted Plus/Minus and its derivatives, or at least what is known in the public domain. What is Plus/Minus? Plus/Minus, at its core, simply compares … [Read more…]