Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011!
(Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons)
| Seed | Tm | WOWY | Shortened | Combined | ReStdev | Win 1st | Win 2nd | Win Conf | Win Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 10.40 | 0.16 | 10.56 | 11.9 | 96.85% | 67.32% | 44.34% | 31.75% |
| 8 | IND | -0.20 | 1.02 | 0.82 | 11.3 | 3.15% | 0.31% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| 4 | ORL | 7.30 | 1.14 | 8.44 | 11.0 | 97.82% | 32.32% | 16.73% | 12.27% |
| 5 | ATL | -3.30 | 0.63 | -2.67 | 13.7 | 2.18% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | BOS | 6.20 | 0.64 | 6.84 | 11.2 | 74.37% | 27.28% | 7.38% | 5.24% |
| 6 | NYK | 3.50 | 0.29 | 3.79 | 11.6 | 25.63% | 5.07% | 0.59% | 0.42% |
| 2 | MIA | 9.20 | 0.80 | 10.00 | 12.4 | 88.04% | 63.84% | 30.52% | 22.14% |
| 7 | PHI | 2.70 | 1.18 | 3.88 | 11.8 | 11.96% | 3.81% | 0.42% | 0.28% |
| 1 | SAS | 7.10 | 1.52 | 8.62 | 11.1 | 67.18% | 24.57% | 14.75% | 4.22% |
| 8 | MEM | 4.90 | 1.80 | 6.70 | 11.4 | 32.82% | 7.92% | 3.74% | 1.18% |
| 4 | OKC | 8.30 | 0.59 | 8.89 | 10.8 | 31.33% | 16.51% | 10.25% | 2.95% |
| 5 | DEN | 11.00 | 0.88 | 11.88 | 11.5 | 68.67% | 51.00% | 41.69% | 11.44% |
| 3 | DAL | 7.00 | 1.09 | 8.09 | 10.4 | 66.66% | 39.19% | 12.20% | 3.46% |
| 6 | POR | 6.10 | 0.22 | 6.32 | 12.5 | 33.34% | 15.42% | 3.55% | 0.82% |
| 2 | LAL | 6.80 | 0.92 | 7.72 | 12.7 | 94.18% | 45.09% | 13.82% | 3.81% |
| 7 | NOH | -2.50 | 1.61 | -0.89 | 12.2 | 5.82% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Picks for the 1st Round:
| CHI vs IND | ORL vs ATL | BOS vs NYK | MIA vs PHI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 to 0 | 38.2% | 4 to 0 | 42.3% | 4 to 0 | 12.2% | 4 to 0 | 21.5% |
| 4 to 1 | 36.9% | 4 to 1 | 36.4% | 4 to 1 | 25.0% | 4 to 1 | 32.4% |
| 4 to 2 | 14.2% | 4 to 2 | 12.9% | 4 to 2 | 17.5% | 4 to 2 | 18.5% |
| 4 to 3 | 7.7% | 4 to 3 | 6.3% | 4 to 3 | 20.1% | 4 to 3 | 15.6% |
| 3 to 4 | 1.2% | 3 to 4 | 0.9% | 3 to 4 | 8.2% | 3 to 4 | 4.4% |
| 2 to 4 | 1.3% | 2 to 4 | 0.9% | 2 to 4 | 10.6% | 2 to 4 | 5.0% |
| 1 to 4 | 0.3% | 1 to 4 | 0.2% | 1 to 4 | 4.3% | 1 to 4 | 1.7% |
| 0 to 4 | 0.1% | 0 to 4 | 0.1% | 0 to 4 | 2.2% | 0 to 4 | 0.8% |
| SAS vs MEM | OKC vs DEN | DAL vs POR | LAL vs NOH | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 to 0 | 9.4% | 4 to 0 | 2.2% | 4 to 0 | 9.0% | 4 to 0 | 30.5% |
| 4 to 1 | 21.5% | 4 to 1 | 7.5% | 4 to 1 | 20.8% | 4 to 1 | 35.8% |
| 4 to 2 | 16.2% | 4 to 2 | 7.3% | 4 to 2 | 15.9% | 4 to 2 | 16.8% |
| 4 to 3 | 20.7% | 4 to 3 | 14.4% | 4 to 3 | 20.7% | 4 to 3 | 11.0% |
| 3 to 4 | 9.9% | 3 to 4 | 13.9% | 3 to 4 | 10.2% | 3 to 4 | 2.3% |
| 2 to 4 | 13.4% | 2 to 4 | 25.2% | 2 to 4 | 13.8% | 2 to 4 | 2.5% |
| 1 to 4 | 5.9% | 1 to 4 | 17.3% | 1 to 4 | 6.2% | 1 to 4 | 0.8% |
| 0 to 4 | 3.1% | 0 to 4 | 12.2% | 0 to 4 | 3.3% | 0 to 4 | 0.3% |
EDIT: Spreadsheet to do Monte Carlo here, with odds for particular outcomes in series based on your inputs!
Also, I might add that doing Monte Carlo on the L8 or L18 data from raw Bayesian (not WOWY) may be more accurate than the WOWY Bayesian. I’m not sure, and I don’t have time to run the numbers. Anyone can calculate that with the spreadsheet above.