As part of the calculation of Playoff Box Plus/Minus, adjusted team ratings for each team in the playoffs are compiled. This number portrays how the team performed in the playoffs only, without regard to their regular season performance. Kevin Pelton has done similar work for ESPN Insider, but these independent ratings could be interesting.
The process:
- Get playoff minutes distribution for each team
- Compile implied team strength based on that minutes distribution and the regular season Box Plus/Minus value for each player. Most teams get a point or two better from shortening their rotation like this; this particularly strengthens top-heavy teams like the Miami Heat of the LeBron/Wade/Bosh era.
- Compile number of games against each opponent in the playoffs
- Compute implied strength of schedule based on the number of games and implied strength of each team.
- Take actual playoff efficiency differential (from Basketball Reference) and add implied strength of schedule. This is a best estimate of how the team actually performed in the playoffs, with 0 being an average team in that season.
Note: due to the reliance of this method on Box Plus/Minus from the regular season to develop the implied team strengths, these can only be compiled since the mid 1970s. I have teams since 1978 in my database.
Since many of the playoff runs were rather short, I restricted this list to teams that made the conference finals.
Notes:
- The 2001 Lakers played at an incredible level in the playoffs. +20!!! A team with that rating would be expected to win 77 games if they kept it up for an entire 82 game season!
- The Jordan Bulls had an extra gear for sure
- The 1996 and 1997 Jazz had some bad luck–they should have won at least one title with playoff ratings that good.
- San Antonio was good in the 2014 playoffs.
- In 2010, the Lakers had the worst playoff rating of the final 4 teams. That is very odd. In 2009, they were next to worst of those 4. How did they win those titles?
- The Hawks played at barely league average in the playoffs this season, and still made it to the conference championship somehow. Indy was scarcely better the year before. The East!
- The 2010 Magic and 2009 Cavs both went 10-4 in the playoffs, had playoff ratings above +14 (well above most champs!)… and lost in the conference championship.
| Year | Team | Games | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Eff. Diff. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | LAL | 16 | 15-1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 20.4 | Champ |
| 1996 | CHI | 18 | 15-3 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 19.3 | Champ |
| 1991 | CHI | 17 | 15-2 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 18.2 | Champ |
| 2014 | SAS | 23 | 16-7 | 5.9 | 11.0 | 16.9 | Champ |
| 1996 | UTA | 18 | 10-8 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 16.7 | Semis |
| 1997 | CHI | 19 | 15-4 | 5.0 | 10.4 | 15.4 | Champ |
| 1986 | BOS | 18 | 15-3 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 15.2 | Champ |
| 2010 | ORL | 14 | 10-4 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 15.1 | Semis |
| 2009 | DEN | 16 | 10-6 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 14.6 | Semis |
| 1998 | CHI | 21 | 15-6 | 4.8 | 9.4 | 14.2 | Champ |
| 2011 | DAL | 21 | 16-5 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 14.2 | Champ |
| 2009 | CLE | 14 | 10-4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 14.1 | Semis |
| 1992 | CHI | 22 | 15-7 | 3.6 | 10.4 | 14.0 | Champ |
| 2000 | POR | 16 | 10-6 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 14.0 | Semis |
| 1993 | CHI | 19 | 15-4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 13.8 | Champ |
| 2015 | GSW | 21 | 16-5 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 13.7 | Champ |
| 2012 | MIA | 23 | 16-7 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 13.4 | Champ |
| 2009 | LAL | 23 | 16-7 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 13.3 | Champ |
| 1987 | LAL | 18 | 15-3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 13.1 | Champ |
| 2004 | DET | 23 | 16-7 | 3.2 | 9.9 | 13.0 | Champ |
| 1989 | DET | 17 | 15-2 | 3.5 | 9.4 | 12.9 | Champ |
| 1987 | DET | 15 | 10-5 | 3.4 | 9.2 | 12.6 | Semis |
| 2013 | MIA | 23 | 16-7 | 9.9 | 2.7 | 12.5 | Champ |
| 1997 | UTA | 20 | 13-7 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 12.5 | Runner-up |
| 2005 | PHO | 15 | 9-6 | 14.5 | -2.0 | 12.5 | Semis |
| 2012 | OKC | 20 | 13-7 | 11.2 | 1.2 | 12.4 | Runner-up |
| 1990 | DET | 20 | 15-5 | 0.6 | 11.8 | 12.4 | Champ |
| 1999 | SAS | 17 | 15-2 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 12.3 | Champ |
| 2003 | SAS | 24 | 16-8 | 0.4 | 11.8 | 12.3 | Champ |
| 2013 | SAS | 21 | 15-6 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 12.2 | Runner-up |
| 2006 | DAL | 23 | 14-9 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 12.2 | Runner-up |
| 1983 | PHI | 13 | 12-1 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 12.1 | Champ |
| 1985 | LAL | 19 | 15-4 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 12.0 | Champ |
| 2008 | LAL | 21 | 14-7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 11.9 | Runner-up |
| 2010 | PHO | 16 | 10-6 | 12.5 | -0.6 | 11.9 | Semis |
| 2005 | DET | 25 | 15-10 | 1.4 | 10.4 | 11.8 | Runner-up |
| 2015 | CLE | 20 | 14-6 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 11.6 | Runner-up |
| 2012 | SAS | 14 | 10-4 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 11.5 | Semis |
| 1990 | PHO | 16 | 9-7 | 3.8 | 7.6 | 11.4 | Semis |
| 2002 | LAL | 19 | 15-4 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 11.4 | Champ |
| 1988 | DET | 23 | 14-9 | -1.6 | 13.0 | 11.4 | Runner-up |
| 1983 | MIL | 9 | 5-4 | 3.3 | 8.1 | 11.4 | Semis |
| 2008 | BOS | 26 | 16-10 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 11.2 | Champ |
| 2002 | SAC | 16 | 10-6 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 11.2 | Semis |
| 2010 | BOS | 24 | 15-9 | 0.4 | 10.7 | 11.1 | Runner-up |
| 2007 | SAS | 20 | 16-4 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 11.0 | Champ |
| 1995 | HOU | 22 | 15-7 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 10.9 | Champ |
| 1981 | BOS | 17 | 12-5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 10.9 | Champ |
| 1982 | LAL | 14 | 12-2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 10.7 | Runner-up |
| 2005 | SAS | 23 | 16-7 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 10.5 | Champ |
| 1989 | LAL | 15 | 11-4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 10.4 | Runner-up |
| 1994 | HOU | 23 | 15-8 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 10.2 | Champ |
| 1992 | POR | 21 | 13-8 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 10.0 | Runner-up |
| 2005 | MIA | 15 | 11-4 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 10.0 | Semis |
| 1982 | BOS | 12 | 7-5 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 10.0 | Semis |
| 1997 | HOU | 16 | 9-7 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 10.0 | Semis |
| 1994 | IND | 16 | 10-6 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 9.9 | Semis |
| 2009 | ORL | 24 | 13-11 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 9.8 | Runner-up |
| 1986 | LAL | 14 | 8-6 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 9.8 | Semis |
| 2008 | DET | 17 | 10-7 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 9.8 | Semis |
| 1996 | SEA | 21 | 13-8 | 1.6 | 8.1 | 9.8 | Runner-up |
| 1998 | IND | 16 | 10-6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 9.7 | Semis |
| 1991 | LAL | 19 | 12-7 | 3.0 | 6.7 | 9.7 | Runner-up |
| 2006 | MIA | 23 | 16-7 | 0.4 | 9.2 | 9.6 | Champ |
| 1980 | BOS | 9 | 5-4 | 2.4 | 7.2 | 9.5 | Semis |
| 1998 | UTA | 20 | 13-7 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 9.5 | Runner-up |
| 1999 | NYK | 20 | 12-8 | 1.3 | 8.2 | 9.5 | Runner-up |
| 2013 | MEM | 15 | 8-7 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 9.4 | Semis |
| 1990 | CHI | 16 | 10-6 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 9.4 | Semis |
| 1996 | ORL | 12 | 7-5 | 10.6 | -1.3 | 9.3 | Semis |
| 1980 | LAL | 16 | 12-4 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 9.3 | Runner-up |
| 1985 | PHI | 13 | 8-5 | 1.3 | 8.0 | 9.3 | Semis |
| 2011 | MIA | 21 | 14-7 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 9.3 | Runner-up |
| 1984 | LAL | 21 | 14-7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 9.2 | Runner-up |
| 2007 | UTA | 17 | 9-8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 9.2 | Semis |
| 2000 | LAL | 23 | 15-8 | 9.0 | 0.1 | 9.1 | Champ |
| 1995 | SAS | 15 | 9-6 | -1.6 | 10.6 | 9.0 | Semis |
| 2004 | LAL | 22 | 13-9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | 9.0 | Runner-up |
| 2010 | LAL | 23 | 16-7 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 9.0 | Champ |
| 1986 | HOU | 20 | 13-7 | 1.8 | 7.2 | 9.0 | Runner-up |
| 1992 | CLE | 17 | 9-8 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 9.0 | Semis |
| 1989 | PHO | 12 | 7-5 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 8.8 | Semis |
| 2000 | IND | 23 | 13-10 | 8.8 | -0.2 | 8.5 | Runner-up |
| 1984 | BOS | 23 | 15-8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 8.5 | Champ |
| 2004 | IND | 16 | 10-6 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 8.4 | Semis |
| 1998 | LAL | 13 | 7-6 | 8.7 | -0.3 | 8.4 | Semis |
| 2012 | BOS | 20 | 11-9 | 1.4 | 7.0 | 8.4 | Semis |
| 2007 | DET | 16 | 10-6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 8.2 | Semis |
| 2003 | NJN | 20 | 14-6 | -1.3 | 9.3 | 8.1 | Runner-up |
| 1993 | SEA | 19 | 10-9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 8.0 | Semis |
| 2006 | DET | 18 | 10-8 | 0.9 | 7.0 | 7.9 | Semis |
| 1995 | IND | 17 | 10-7 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 7.9 | Semis |
| 1982 | PHI | 21 | 12-9 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 7.9 | Champ |
| 1980 | PHI | 18 | 12-6 | 1.3 | 6.5 | 7.8 | Champ |
| 2011 | OKC | 17 | 9-8 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 7.6 | Semis |
| 2011 | CHI | 16 | 9-7 | 1.4 | 6.2 | 7.6 | Semis |
| 2002 | BOS | 16 | 9-7 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 7.4 | Semis |
| 1978 | WSB | 21 | 14-7 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 7.3 | Champ |
| 1983 | SAS | 11 | 6-5 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | Semis |
| 1999 | IND | 13 | 9-4 | 8.4 | -1.1 | 7.3 | Semis |
| 2014 | OKC | 19 | 10-9 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 7.2 | Semis |
| 1981 | PHI | 16 | 9-7 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 7.2 | Semis |
| 1985 | BOS | 21 | 13-8 | 1.6 | 5.5 | 7.1 | Runner-up |
| 1991 | POR | 16 | 9-7 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 7.0 | Semis |
| 1999 | POR | 13 | 7-6 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 6.9 | Semis |
| 1989 | CHI | 17 | 9-8 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 6.9 | Semis |
| 1992 | UTA | 16 | 9-7 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 6.9 | Semis |
| 2006 | PHO | 20 | 10-10 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 6.9 | Semis |
| 1995 | ORL | 21 | 11-10 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 6.7 | Runner-up |
| 2014 | MIA | 20 | 13-7 | 7.4 | -0.8 | 6.6 | Runner-up |
| 1979 | SEA | 17 | 12-5 | 1.7 | 4.9 | 6.6 | Champ |
| 2004 | MIN | 18 | 10-8 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 6.5 | Semis |
| 1994 | UTA | 16 | 8-8 | 6.1 | 0.4 | 6.4 | Semis |
| 1994 | NYK | 25 | 14-11 | -0.3 | 6.7 | 6.4 | Runner-up |
| 1988 | LAL | 24 | 15-9 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 6.4 | Champ |
| 2001 | SAS | 13 | 7-6 | -1.5 | 7.8 | 6.3 | Semis |
| 2008 | SAS | 17 | 9-8 | -2.8 | 9.1 | 6.3 | Semis |
| 1983 | LAL | 15 | 8-7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 6.1 | Runner-up |
| 2013 | IND | 19 | 11-8 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 5.9 | Semis |
| 2015 | HOU | 17 | 9-8 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 5.7 | Semis |
| 1978 | PHI | 10 | 6-4 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 5.6 | Semis |
| 2001 | MIL | 18 | 10-8 | 5.8 | -0.3 | 5.6 | Semis |
| 2007 | CLE | 20 | 12-8 | -1.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | Runner-up |
| 1993 | PHO | 24 | 13-11 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 5.5 | Runner-up |
| 1997 | MIA | 17 | 8-9 | -4.4 | 9.9 | 5.5 | Semis |
| 1980 | SEA | 15 | 7-8 | -0.3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | Semis |
| 1979 | PHO | 15 | 9-6 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 5.4 | Semis |
| 1991 | DET | 15 | 7-8 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 5.3 | Semis |
| 1988 | BOS | 17 | 9-8 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 5.2 | Semis |
| 1987 | BOS | 23 | 13-10 | 4.7 | 0.4 | 5.1 | Runner-up |
| 2003 | DAL | 20 | 10-10 | 8.5 | -3.5 | 5.0 | Semis |
| 2001 | PHI | 23 | 12-11 | 0.6 | 4.1 | 4.7 | Runner-up |
| 1984 | MIL | 16 | 8-8 | 0.1 | 4.5 | 4.7 | Semis |
| 2003 | DET | 17 | 8-9 | -1.6 | 5.9 | 4.3 | Semis |
| 1990 | POR | 21 | 12-9 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | Runner-up |
| 2002 | NJN | 20 | 11-9 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 4.1 | Runner-up |
| 1979 | SAS | 14 | 7-7 | 4.3 | -0.4 | 4.0 | Semis |
| 1981 | HOU | 21 | 12-9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 3.9 | Runner-up |
| 1988 | DAL | 17 | 10-7 | 5.5 | -1.6 | 3.9 | Semis |
| 1985 | DEN | 15 | 8-7 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 3.8 | Semis |
| 1993 | NYK | 15 | 9-6 | -1.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | Semis |
| 1984 | PHO | 17 | 9-8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | Semis |
| 1987 | SEA | 14 | 7-7 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | Semis |
| 1979 | WSB | 19 | 9-10 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3.0 | Runner-up |
| 2000 | NYK | 16 | 9-7 | -2.4 | 5.3 | 2.9 | Semis |
| 1986 | MIL | 14 | 7-7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 2.5 | Semis |
| 2014 | IND | 19 | 10-9 | -4.7 | 6.9 | 2.2 | Semis |
| 1978 | SEA | 22 | 13-9 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | Runner-up |
| 2015 | ATL | 16 | 8-8 | -2.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | Semis |
| 1982 | SAS | 9 | 4-5 | 2.3 | -1.7 | 0.6 | Semis |
| 1981 | KCK | 15 | 7-8 | -3.5 | 3.3 | -0.3 | Semis |
| 1978 | DEN | 13 | 6-7 | 2.5 | -3.6 | -1.0 | Semis |
This table can be downloaded: Google Drive worksheet