I have updated my Bayesian Power Ratings, using the techniques described in previous posts:
Here are the Bayesian Ratings, updated through the end of the conference finals:
| Team | Bayesian | Bayes OE | Bayes DE | Pace | Max L8 | L18 | L62 | Stdev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 7.11 | 4.13 | -2.18 | 87.7 | 7.11 | 7.11 | 7.84 | 12.3 |
| CHI | 6.61 | 1.31 | -4.56 | 87.4 | 7.48 | 7.48 | 7.87 | 13.1 |
| DAL | 6.36 | 3.27 | -2.37 | 89.5 | 6.45 | 6.45 | 6.45 | 12.7 |
| OKC | 4.53 | 3.84 | -0.18 | 91.0 | 5.01 | 5.01 | 5.01 | 11.6 |
| DEN | 4.48 | 3.00 | -0.96 | 94.2 | 5.44 | 5.44 | 5.44 | 11.7 |
| LAL | 4.45 | 2.43 | -1.51 | 88.3 | 5.94 | 6.93 | 6.93 | 12.7 |
| ORL | 4.27 | 0.10 | -3.68 | 89.1 | 4.75 | 5.25 | 5.71 | 10.7 |
| BOS | 4.12 | -0.92 | -4.56 | 88.9 | 4.44 | 4.44 | 7.37 | 11.8 |
| SAS | 3.91 | 2.75 | -0.71 | 91.3 | 4.84 | 4.94 | 6.70 | 12.2 |
| MEM | 3.07 | 0.66 | -2.07 | 90.4 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 12.6 |
| HOU | 2.73 | 3.21 | 0.80 | 93.0 | 3.00 | 3.19 | 3.19 | 11.8 |
| POR | 2.13 | 2.14 | 0.25 | 86.2 | 3.32 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 13.3 |
| PHI | 0.95 | -0.23 | -1.07 | 89.6 | 1.81 | 2.76 | 2.99 | 11.6 |
| NYK | 0.48 | 3.56 | 3.14 | 93.1 | 1.24 | 1.40 | 2.04 | 11.9 |
| NOH | -0.56 | -0.35 | 0.15 | 90.2 | 0.30 | 1.30 | 4.18 | 11.9 |
| GSW | -0.72 | 1.42 | 2.06 | 94.0 | -0.72 | -0.72 | -0.72 | 13.0 |
| PHO | -0.73 | 1.59 | 2.24 | 93.5 | -0.40 | 0.39 | 0.98 | 10.8 |
| MIL | -1.07 | -4.40 | -3.46 | 89.1 | -0.88 | -0.88 | 0.03 | 12.1 |
| IND | -1.40 | -1.17 | 0.07 | 92.8 | -0.98 | -0.94 | 0.06 | 11.7 |
| ATL | -1.57 | -0.68 | 0.71 | 87.0 | -1.07 | -0.65 | 2.78 | 13.5 |
| LAC | -2.32 | -1.75 | 0.29 | 92.7 | -2.21 | -1.64 | -0.49 | 10.7 |
| UTA | -2.69 | 0.53 | 2.91 | 94.7 | -2.69 | -2.10 | 4.41 | 11.3 |
| DET | -3.27 | 1.72 | 4.61 | 89.8 | -3.21 | -3.21 | -2.93 | 10.2 |
| SAC | -3.65 | -2.39 | 0.83 | 95.4 | -3.18 | -3.18 | -3.18 | 12.6 |
| CHA | -4.25 | -2.12 | 1.63 | 88.5 | -3.98 | -3.41 | -1.73 | 12.5 |
| MIN | -6.27 | -2.74 | 2.78 | 95.0 | -4.98 | -3.91 | -3.45 | 12.4 |
| NJN | -6.30 | -2.38 | 3.17 | 90.0 | -5.74 | -4.94 | -3.60 | 9.9 |
| TOR | -6.45 | -0.52 | 5.16 | 91.7 | -6.21 | -5.84 | -2.16 | 11.3 |
| WAS | -6.88 | -3.42 | 2.64 | 93.5 | -6.71 | -6.71 | -4.54 | 13.0 |
| CLE | -7.62 | -3.24 | 3.48 | 91.8 | -7.62 | -7.62 | -6.85 | 12.4 |
And here is my most intricate Team-Level Google Motion Chart to date:
(Source Data on Google Spreadsheets)
Stathead » Blog Archive
[…] Bayesian Power Ratings: NBA Finals Edition: Daniel Myers’ pre-Finals team ratings at DStats. […]
Wow – that’s a serious chart Daniel. Interesting that Miami came out better earlier in the year than now, whereas Dallas has shown steady improvement to championship level since Dirk came back.