APBRmetrics

[Statman]

[ejay]

hey guys, just joined the site yesterday and im glad to hear that something like this exists. I am a huge basketball fan and i am also a huge stat geek. Im a finance major at university of manitoba and while i have a decent math background im by no means a great mathematican. I am also not great with computers and it looks like there is a lot of advanced (for me anyway) programs being used here. This site feels a little overwhelming so i was wondering if there is like a certain way/ order of importance to break this stuff down in order to make the process easier. I was also wondering if most of you guys do this for fun or do you try to use data for betting purposes.

thanks

ejay

[miller31time]

Hey everyone. Just joined the site but have been a lurker from time to time. I mainly post at RealGM (under the same SN) but as tsherkin mentioned earlier in this thread, sometimes you just need a breath of fresh air. Arguing with people who base their arguments on the foundation of fg% can only last so long.

I'm not particularly well-versed in advanced statistics and formulas but I understand the basics and would like to learn a bit more.

My career goal, and what I'm currently in college for, is to become a sports broadcaster and hopefully be one of the few who actually have a grasp of statistics that go beyond per-game averages.

[kjb]

What's up miller? Glad you've made it over from Wizards-land.

By the way, no snitching.

TSW

[miller31time]

[TannedGent]

I am so happy to have found this site. It really is stunning that there is a community of people who think basketball mathematically.

My name is Todd. I've been a big Suns fan since the mid seventies and an even bigger Raptors fan since...there were Raptors. Although I have no formal training in math beyond the high school level...math has always come as easy as breathing to me.

I specialize in probability...I know risk. Most of the time I really have very little idea as to how I do my calculations and formulas that I work out in my head. I just know how to make sure I'm accurate by implementing probability based test criteria as a safeguard.

In real life I own a company that makes fake tattoo art and art for mobile phones.

I'm here to learn and to help if possible.

Favourite Player: Lebron
Favourite all time: Walter Davis

[wtt02005]

Hello everyone,

My name is William. I have actually interned with the NBA (Clippers) and done a lot of sports broadcasting across various media. Like everyone here, I consider myself a huge basketball fan and will do anything like spout my knowledge, play fantasy sports, or now APBRmetrics to deepen my engagement with the game

I actually want to write a paper about APBRmetrics. My main interests include:

1) How APBRmetrics is changing traditional ways of observing basketball
2) How APBRmetrics is something of a fan phenomenon and yet simultaneously created by key "fathers" or "pioneers" of the field like Dean Oliver and John Hollinger
3) How APBRmetrics is constantly being developed through message boards and what is the future of the field

I think you guys are the best sources of this information, so I would appreciate any responses and would be more than willing to interview any of you guys. I am here to spread the word on the statistical revolution

[mdelp]

Hello everyone.

This is a great forum. I'm a Master's student in computer science and life long basketball fan. I managed to get a professor to agree to let me do a Data Mining project in the basketball realm.

I'm wondering if anybody has any good ideas for projects ideas.

I've read "A Starting point for Analyzing Basketball statistics" and the authors mention that one "unsolved" item in basketball is figuring out what it is about star players that makes them so effective and valuable despite the fact that their per minute numbers and shooting efficiency may not be as good as some of the top shooters. Intuitively, this has to do with creating their own shots, and shooting before the shot clock is up. A star player like Allen Iverson or Kobe Bryant will be able to create their own shots unlike a pinpoint shooter like Sasha Vujajic or Steve Kerr who needs to take an open assisted shot but can hit that with higher efficiency. Also, someone has to take a shot within 24 seconds. The ball is often put in the hands of the star player with a few seconds left on the clock so since everything else about the play has failed he will give them the best chance to score in the end. The idea of the project would be to formulate a hypothesis and prove it (i.e. that star players take more unassisted shots % wise, and make more % of shots then others with only a few seconds left in the shot clock), although this could probably easily be verified or falsified by looking at some the 82Games analysis.

So a better project would be to find any other features that separate out the star players, and/or correlate star players together with up and coming players, to help predict which players will be stars. For example do Rodney Stuckey's per-minute-stats indicate he will be a star one day because there are correlations with other stars?

Another problem that seems big and still "open" is that of determining the best defensive players from statistics. I know there are defensive efficiency measures out there, but I also know that it is a difficult problem since who one plays with can really influence their defensive plus - numbers. I'd like to look at this problem, but I'm not sure how I can add to what is all ready out there.

If you like my ideas, can make any recommendations on where to get statistics or what data mining techniques to use, know of anybody who has built a freely available play-by-play parser, or have some other good project ideas, please reply!

(Note I've submitted this as it's own topic post, so you can reply there if you wish)

[Alfred]

Hello there. I'm Alfred, also from Realgm (same screen name). I'm interested in taking part in the discussion here, and learning more!

[crimsonc]

Hey. My name is Jesse. I'm a computer graphics programming consultant, but I've been a basketball fan since I was 5 years old. I'm currently interested in applying statistical tools to college basketball, especially womens' college basketball. I write a lot of data-mining code, including creating manipulatable databases of statistics from online sources.

[erivera7]

I never formally introduced myself here, so might as well just to get the pleasantries out of the way.

My name is Eddy and I'm currently a senior at DePaul University. I'm a double major in Journalism & PR/Advertising. The main reason why I joined this forum is due to my contact with Kevin Pelton and some other stat gurus via e-mail, so I figured it'd make some sense to be a part of this community .. given my affinity for analyzing basketball using advanced metrics, etc. I'm not a stats guru by any means (in terms of creating new formulas, and so on), but I definitely have a grasp for interpreting most of the numbers currently out there. I'm always learning and willing to comprehend more information, so I'm pretty receptive in that manner.

I'm a Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website, where I mainly write up stat articles/recaps for DePaul games using the Four Factors (I've been slacking a bit given my hectic schedule). Pretty sure I'm one of the few writers over at Scout.com to really use advanced metrics for a "mainstream" audience, but thankfully the DePaul community has been real open in taking a closer look into the numbers.

I'm also a Managing Editor at Third Quarter Collapse, a blog covering the Orlando Magic. I've been part of that specific blog community for a while, but I recently jumped on board to be a contributer to the site over a month ago. I use advanced statistics all the time when making analytical posts, etc. Just feel that's key, IMO.

Naturally, my loyalty resides with the Magic .. given the fact I was born/raised in Orlando. I've been a basketball fan ever since I can remember and I've always been interested in the numbers aspect of sports. I feel it's very important to utilize proper data to support a certain claim or point. I never make an assertion without backing it up with facts, that's just something I've been trained to do as a journalism major.

So yeah .. that's me. I'm glad to be on board!
_________________
@erivera7
I cover the Orlando Magic - Magic Basketball

[timmys24]

New member to the board, love the discussions on here.

I'm a high school assistant, and have used analytics based on +/-, Hollinger's PER and Dean Oliver's work to help evaluate our team and scout opponents when I've been able to gather the needed data on them.

Looking forward to finding ways to hone my analysis, as well as adding to the discussion when I can.

[Mountain]

Eddy, I see you are a double major in Journalism & PR/Advertising. I've wonder how advanced agents are in knowing and presenting / spinning stats directly in salary negotiations or thru the press beforehand to lay the groundwork, Anybody know what the top agents have and do with stats? Anybody try to become a stat guy for a top agent? They and the players have a strong financial interest in how the stats are read. Is that a likely near-term frontier for folks wanting consulting or full-time involvement? Any interest in such a path Eddy?



Hey timmys24. Hope you are having a good season. Have your head coach and players been receptive to more advanced stat feedback?



Hey crimsonic have you done are data-mining of NBA play by play that you want to share? WILQ had some questions in the Rockets need an intern thread that might be interesting to pursue if you were interested. Any computer graphic ideas that might apply to the study of the NBA that intrigue you?

[erivera7]

[Mountain]

Emphasis on journalism with a knowledge of PR / Marketing sounds like a good balance. Good luck.

I raised the stats for agents angle because it might fit you but also to simply raise it in general.