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EvanZ
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
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Location: Hendersonville, NC
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 Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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Many fans will have a problem with this language: | Quote: | | Say Curry was +5, Ellis was +6, Lee was +2, Biedrins was +1 and Dorell Wright was -4. In this example, the team +/- is +10, but Dorell Wright was actually a negative contributer. |
Unless this covered relatively few minutes, can you really say Wright made negative overall contributions?
Put more broadly, does it make real-world sense to say the entirety of NBA rosters make zero net contributions?
In the NBA Finals, with the 2 best teams in the world going at it, are there as many negative as positive acts?
If the Warriors should bench all their 'negative contributors', would they win more games? Would they have 5 players?
Do you really win 41 games with zero net contribution toward winning those many games?
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
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| Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:37 pm Post subject: |
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Mike G, that's the definition of plus/minus.
Your comments are why replacement level is required to value players.
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bbstats
Joined: 25 Apr 2010
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
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| Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: |
If the Warriors should bench all their 'negative contributors', would they win more games? Would they have 5 players?
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Uh, I really think if they benched Vlad Rad, they would have won at least 2 more games. 
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
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| Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 1:21 pm Post subject: |
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| EvanZ wrote: | | Mike G wrote: |
If the Warriors should bench all their 'negative contributors', would they win more games? Would they have 5 players?
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Uh, I really think if they benched Vlad Rad, they would have won at least 2 more games. |
ASPM has Vlad Rad as close to league-average. What's the big difference between your numbers and mine on him? I have him as a -1.2 offensive player (his numbers aren't that bad) and a +1.2 defender (the best on Golden State). The defense is based on his high steal and block numbers. What do you see differently?
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
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| Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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My model has him at -4.81 (-1.5/-3.3). My eyes tend to agree. He's a nightmare on offense and defense most of the time. Can't stay in front of anyone. He hits a three every once in a while, and is a tall white European guy (who had a few good playoff games with LAL). Somehow, Keith Smart trusts him.
BTW, not just my opinion. If you ever go over to GSOM, he is universally despised.
EDIT: I'm referring to 2009-10 stats. I haven't crunched this season yet.
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BobboFitos
Joined: 21 Feb 2009
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Location: Cambridge, MA
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| Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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| DSMok1 wrote: | | EvanZ wrote: | | Mike G wrote: |
If the Warriors should bench all their 'negative contributors', would they win more games? Would they have 5 players?
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Uh, I really think if they benched Vlad Rad, they would have won at least 2 more games. |
ASPM has Vlad Rad as close to league-average. What's the big difference between your numbers and mine on him? I have him as a -1.2 offensive player (his numbers aren't that bad) and a +1.2 defender (the best on Golden State). The defense is based on his high steal and block numbers. What do you see differently? |
Counterpart data suggests Vlad Rad is a +3.3 per 100 defender. (Meaning, he's 3.3 points below average) From the eye test as well/stereotype about older tall Euros, I'm prone to believe that. Take it for whatever it's worth though, counterpart isn't reliable etc etc.
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DSMok1
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BobboFitos
Joined: 21 Feb 2009
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| Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:14 pm Post subject: |
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| DSMok1 wrote: | | He's unusual in that he has high steal rates and high block rates. |
He's also way outperforming his career norms on blocks and steals this year. Per 36, he's 2.0 spg/1.2 bpg. Career wise, 1.2 and .5, respectively.
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
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| Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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| DSMok1 wrote: | | He's unusual in that he has high steal rates and high block rates. |
Yeah, that's true. Interestingly, though, ezPM places quite a bit of weight on blocks (0.7). He would be much worse off without it I guess. Like I said before, I need to do this season. Maybe my eyes are deceiving me.
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
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| Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 8:05 pm Post subject: |
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I've done the 2010-11 numbers through Wednesday:
| Code: |
Rank ORank DRank LAST FIRST TEAM POS EZPM100 OFF100 DEF100 POSS
1 1 3 Paul Chris NOH 1 11.02 8.93 2.10 1833
2 10 7 Wade Dwyane MIA 2 6.73 5.48 1.24 2125
3 18 5 James LeBron MIA 3 6.67 5.20 1.47 2304
4 2 114 Nash Steve PHX 1 6.45 8.08 -1.63 1788
5 3 84 Williams Deron UTA 1 6.13 7.22 -1.09 2150
6 6 26 Ginobili Manu SAS 2 5.97 5.92 0.05 1871
7 97 1 Garnett Kevin BOS 4 5.29 2.16 3.13 1698
8 16 25 Rose Derrick CHI 1 5.28 5.24 0.05 1938
9 9 58 Parker Tony SAS 1 4.86 5.51 -0.65 1859
10 89 2 Howard Dwight ORL 5 4.86 2.36 2.50 1834
11 42 13 Rondo Rajon BOS 1 4.70 3.89 0.80 1443
12 29 31 Carter Vince ORL 2 4.38 4.47 -0.09 1114
13 11 86 Horford Al ATL 5 4.37 5.47 -1.11 1918
14 12 91 Gasol Pau LAL 5 4.23 5.44 -1.21 2250
15 15 82 Nowitzki Dirk DAL 4 4.18 5.26 -1.09 1797
16 33 32 Miller Andre POR 1 4.16 4.31 -0.14 1695
17 24 56 Westbrook Russell OKC 1 4.07 4.69 -0.62 2076
18 34 36 Pierce Paul BOS 3 4.02 4.26 -0.23 1946
19 44 24 Young Thaddeus PHI 3 3.98 3.84 0.14 1616
20 5 140 Love Kevin MIN 4 3.92 5.97 -2.05 2139
21 20 76 Bryant Kobe LAL 2 3.91 4.93 -1.02 1850
22 7 133 Nelson Jameer ORL 1 3.86 5.84 -1.99 1407
23 22 80 Felton Raymond NYK 1 3.82 4.88 -1.06 2266
24 35 50 Chandler Tyson DAL 5 3.74 4.23 -0.48 1287
25 4 165 Martin Kevin HOU 2 3.61 6.17 -2.57 1823
26 83 9 Kidd Jason DAL 1 3.56 2.46 1.11 1645
27 88 8 Duncan Tim SAS 5 3.56 2.36 1.20 1602
28 48 38 Anthony Carmelo DEN 3 3.36 3.62 -0.26 1556
29 19 126 Harris Devin NJN 1 3.34 5.15 -1.82 1548
30 13 147 Hilario Nene DEN 5 3.27 5.44 -2.17 1561
31 51 35 Lowry Kyle HOU 1 3.17 3.39 -0.23 1657
32 41 61 Noah Joakim CHI 5 3.17 3.90 -0.74 1545
33 57 29 Brown Shannon LAL 2 3.15 3.18 -0.03 1277
34 54 33 Hill George SAS 1 3.13 3.28 -0.15 1540
35 131 4 Brewer Ronnie CHI 2 3.10 1.34 1.76 1278
36 72 23 Gay Rudy MEM 3 3.07 2.77 0.30 2249
37 30 98 Odom Lamar LAL 4 3.04 4.44 -1.39 2054
38 14 157 Gordon Eric LAC 2 2.98 5.39 -2.41 1987
39 50 57 Durant Kevin OKC 3 2.97 3.60 -0.63 2083
40 26 112 Calderon Jose TOR 1 2.96 4.56 -1.60 1330
41 81 18 Thomas Tyrus CHA 4 2.94 2.47 0.47 1010
42 31 101 Randolph Zach MEM 4 2.87 4.35 -1.48 1817
43 40 83 Brand Elton PHI 5 2.85 3.93 -1.09 1717
44 28 119 Griffin Blake LAC 4 2.82 4.55 -1.72 2037
45 59 47 Allen Ray BOS 2 2.77 3.16 -0.39 1969
46 65 40 Barnes Matt LAL 3 2.74 3.04 -0.30 1438
47 99 16 Iguodala Andre PHI 2 2.72 2.06 0.65 1533
48 68 46 Bosh Chris MIA 4 2.59 2.96 -0.37 2181
49 27 137 Lawson Ty DEN 1 2.55 4.55 -2.00 1740
50 108 14 McGrady Tracy DET 3 2.52 1.84 0.69 1058 |
Vince Carter! 
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deepak
Joined: 26 Apr 2006
Posts: 665
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| Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:08 pm Post subject: |
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| EvanZ wrote: | I've done the 2010-11 numbers through Wednesday:
Vince Carter! |
Thanks. Its interesting to me that everyone in the top 50 is a positive offensive contributor, while most are negative defensive contributors. Will the Def100 for the entire league sum up to 0?
Here it is, with easier to read formatting:
| Code: |
Rank ORank DRank Name TEAM POS EZPM100 OFF100 DEF100 POSS
1 1 3 Chris Paul NOH 1 11.02 8.93 2.1 1833
2 10 7 Dwyane Wade MIA 2 6.73 5.48 1.24 2125
3 18 5 LeBron James MIA 3 6.67 5.2 1.47 2304
4 2 114 Steve Nash PHX 1 6.45 8.08 -1.63 1788
5 3 84 Deron Williams UTA 1 6.13 7.22 -1.09 2150
6 6 26 Manu Ginobili SAS 2 5.97 5.92 0.05 1871
7 97 1 Kevin Garnett BOS 4 5.29 2.16 3.13 1698
8 16 25 Derrick Rose CHI 1 5.28 5.24 0.05 1938
9 9 58 Tony Parker SAS 1 4.86 5.51 -0.65 1859
10 89 2 Dwight Howard ORL 5 4.86 2.36 2.5 1834
11 42 13 Rajon Rondo BOS 1 4.7 3.89 0.8 1443
12 29 31 Vince Carter ORL 2 4.38 4.47 -0.09 1114
13 11 86 Al Horford ATL 5 4.37 5.47 -1.11 1918
14 12 91 Pau Gasol LAL 5 4.23 5.44 -1.21 2250
15 15 82 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 4 4.18 5.26 -1.09 1797
16 33 32 Andre Miller POR 1 4.16 4.31 -0.14 1695
17 24 56 Russell Westbrook OKC 1 4.07 4.69 -0.62 2076
18 34 36 Paul Pierce BOS 3 4.02 4.26 -0.23 1946
19 44 24 Thaddeus Young PHI 3 3.98 3.84 0.14 1616
20 5 140 Kevin Love MIN 4 3.92 5.97 -2.05 2139
21 20 76 Kobe Bryant LAL 2 3.91 4.93 -1.02 1850
22 7 133 Jameer Nelson ORL 1 3.86 5.84 -1.99 1407
23 22 80 Raymond Felton NYK 1 3.82 4.88 -1.06 2266
24 35 50 Tyson Chandler DAL 5 3.74 4.23 -0.48 1287
25 4 165 Kevin Martin HOU 2 3.61 6.17 -2.57 1823
26 83 9 Jason Kidd DAL 1 3.56 2.46 1.11 1645
27 88 8 Tim Duncan SAS 5 3.56 2.36 1.2 1602
28 48 38 Carmelo Anthony DEN 3 3.36 3.62 -0.26 1556
29 19 126 Devin Harris NJN 1 3.34 5.15 -1.82 1548
30 13 147 Nene Hilario DEN 5 3.27 5.44 -2.17 1561
31 51 35 Kyle Lowry HOU 1 3.17 3.39 -0.23 1657
32 41 61 Joakim Noah CHI 5 3.17 3.9 -0.74 1545
33 57 29 Shannon Brown LAL 2 3.15 3.18 -0.03 1277
34 54 33 George Hill SAS 1 3.13 3.28 -0.15 1540
35 131 4 Ronnie Brewer CHI 2 3.1 1.34 1.76 1278
36 72 23 Rudy Gay MEM 3 3.07 2.77 0.3 2249
37 30 98 Lamar Odom LAL 4 3.04 4.44 -1.39 2054
38 14 157 Eric Gordon LAC 2 2.98 5.39 -2.41 1987
39 50 57 Kevin Durant OKC 3 2.97 3.6 -0.63 2083
40 26 112 Jose Calderon TOR 1 2.96 4.56 -1.6 1330
41 81 18 Tyrus Thomas CHA 4 2.94 2.47 0.47 1010
42 31 101 Zach Randolph MEM 4 2.87 4.35 -1.48 1817
43 40 83 Elton Brand PHI 5 2.85 3.93 -1.09 1717
44 28 119 Blake Griffin LAC 4 2.82 4.55 -1.72 2037
45 59 47 Ray Allen BOS 2 2.77 3.16 -0.39 1969
46 65 40 Matt Barnes LAL 3 2.74 3.04 -0.3 1438
47 99 16 Andre Iguodala PHI 2 2.72 2.06 0.65 1533
48 68 46 Chris Bosh MIA 4 2.59 2.96 -0.37 2181
49 27 137 Ty Lawson DEN 1 2.55 4.55 -2 1740
50 108 14 Tracy McGrady DET 3 2.52 1.84 0.69 1058
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
Posts: 290
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| Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:27 pm Post subject: |
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| deepak wrote: |
Thanks. Its interesting to me that everyone in the top 50 is a positive offensive contributor, while most are negative defensive contributors. Will the Def100 for the entire league sum up to 0?
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Defense + offense should theoretically sum to zero in my model. Here are the actual totals for the entire league:
#Possessions (all players summed): 408,523
Offensive ezPM points: +7,033
Defensive ezPM points: -6,691
Total (Off+Def)/#Possessions: uh, really close to zero obviously 
BTW, how do you get the formatting so nice? Not by hand, I assume.
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deepak
Joined: 26 Apr 2006
Posts: 665
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| Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:41 pm Post subject: |
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| EvanZ wrote: |
BTW, how do you get the formatting so nice? Not by hand, I assume. |
I copied it into Excel (text to columns), merged the first and last name columns. Then copied it into my text editor (vim), replaced tabs with spaces, and adjusted the spacing between the columns (easy to do in vim). |
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