APBRmetrics

Mike G · Posted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 4:46 am Post subject: Most Improved 2010-11

Ranked by most equivalent wins added above and beyond last year's rates, in this year's minutes.

Mike G · Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 6:42 am Post subject:

By request, here's the bottom of the list (inverted). Players who are contributing much less than last year, still in big minutes.
From data now a few days old.

Crow · Joined: 20 Jan 2009 Posts: 829

Each of the Miami big 3 on the most slippage list. Looks to me like diminishing returns from 3 #1s moving into the trio are in play to some degree beyond the personal year to year stories. Whatever the gains by other Heat players combined, none of those individually made the top 15 of the improvement list due to minutes and size of role.

Mike G · Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 6:32 pm Post subject:

The one area where it was almost a given where they'd all improve was effective shooting%. LeBron's down .050, Wade and Bosh are unimproved, and all 3 are doing less shooting.

Last year, their combined 36-minute averages were something like 88 pts and 25 reb; this year, 75 and 21.
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Mike G · Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 11:48 am Post subject:

Sorted by team, players whose 'extra' ewins are at least .20 more or less than what last seasons rates would have produced; or who are at least .10 in extra (or fewer) eWins and at least .20 changed in eWins per 484 minutes (1.00 = avg, zero = replacement level).

In the nearly-blank lines are the team totals, representing the summary improvements of only those players who played last year.

Mike G · Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 3:42 pm Post subject:

EvanZ · Joined: 22 Nov 2010 Posts: 310

It's funny that Ellis dropped off and now Curry is up there. Not surprising to me. Ellis has considerably regressed since his hot start and Curry is starting to come on.

What about Raymond Felton?

Oh, and would you mind if post about these in my Warriors blog?
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DSMok1 · Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 4:32 pm Post subject:

Here's what I've got with Advanced SPM this year:

I'm listing the regressed ASPM values for this year as the best estimate for what the player has done so far, along with the projections before the year and the difference between them.

Landry Fields has been the biggest surprise--but of course, he's a rookie.

DSMok1 · Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 4:48 pm Post subject:

Here it is from a VORP perspective, using -3.5 as the replacement level:

Mike G · Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:05 am Post subject:

Mike G · Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:31 am Post subject:

DSMok1 · Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 9:10 am Post subject:

Mike G · Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 10:54 am Post subject:

It's turning into a runaway.
Standardized, Gordon's scoring is up 38%, rebounding 27%, Ast 67%, Blk 80%; TO up 26%, Stl down 11%.
Last year's .72 eW/484 min implies he was at 72% of average NBA effectiveness; he's almost doubled that, to 137%.
Last year, he was at 42 percentile; this year at 86.

DSMok1 · Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 11:23 am Post subject:

Looking at VORP, Actual vs. Expected:

EvanZ · Joined: 22 Nov 2010 Posts: 310