Ben, your article does a good job of investigating the diminishing returns of defensive rebounding. However, did you (or Hollinger) have some specific reason for assuming Boone's presence would reduce Kidd's rebounding rate more than the expected rate -- before you checked the numbers? Because, frankly, this little nugget gives the impression of having been data mined.
I'm not sure what you mean by it being "data mined", but as to the idea itself, I just read John's article and decided to investigate further. I don't know how he came up with it in the first place, though. If he reads this he can explain, but my guess is he had been looking at Kidd's rebounding and it's well known NJN has had a weak rebounding frontcourt. Boone is a good rebounder, so I assume he took a look to see if Kidd has been rebounding less when Boone has been getting more minutes. He concluded this to be the case, and I just took the analysis a step further by looking at it based on who is on the court.
Also note that John's article had nothing to do with diminishing returns on rebounds, but rather was analyzing the Kidd trade. His comment about Boone was simply in relation to how he thought Kidd's rebounding would change if he went somewhere with a better rebounding frontcourt.
Charles wrote:
My apologies if I am barking up the wrong tree here, but, if this case has been chosen from among many simply to "make a case" then wouldn't you agree that the significance analysis is irrelevant, bordering on misleading? I don't mean to be a pain, but news stories which give the appearace of being research, should not simply be based on data mining.
I really don't know what you mean here, on any front. Again, what do you mean by "data mining"? And what is deliberately misleading about using a confidence interval?
BTW...for any interested, after a long drawn out saga, ESPN.com is reporting that jason kidd will become a mav...
The original deal removes Devean George and Jerry Stackhouse and inserts Treton Hassell and a re-signed KVH (who according to ESPN won't get a pro rated payment for his 4 million dollar deal..he'll get 4 mil total)
It's not about Boone but the man he replaced -- Jason Collins was about the worst rebounding 7-footer in captivity.
That's a good point, and the evidence continues to support diminishing returns for rebounds on this front. With Collins in the game, Kidd's DR% was 25.9% (with a 90% CI of 22.5-29.2). Without Collins Kidd's DR% was 17.5% (90% CI of 15.6-19.4). So clearly a marked difference. But again, 17% is on par with a lot of power forwards, and even if we estimate a 2% drop by going to Dallas, he's still unbelievably high for a PG. So I think his rebounding will decline, but not enough to make it so it's not an asset to his team.
Of course as I wrote before, it's not as if Dallas needed help on defensive rebounding.
Where exactly did Dallas need help then is my question? What does jason kidd bring to the mavs that warrants giving up all they gave up?
Last year Dallas had an ORTG of 113.0 and a DRTG of 104.7. This year they have an identical offensive rating and a DRTG of 107.6.
If you look on the defensive end, the breakdowns of the four factors last year and this year look like this (the number is their league-wide rank):
Code:
Year eFG% TO OREB% FTM/FG
2007 4 18 5 22
2008 4 28 8 21
As you can see, the problem is almost entirely in forcing TOs. And as I wrote before: "If we use steals as a proxy for forced turnovers, the Kidd trade won't help them at all - Harris is one of the best in the league at getting steals, thieving about 2.5 times per 100 opponent possessions, while Kidd's rate is about 2.1."
Joined: 23 Mar 2007 Posts: 132 Location: Charleston, SC
Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 10:38 pm Post subject:
"If we use steals as a proxy for forced turnovers, the Kidd trade won't help them at all - Harris is one of the best in the league at getting steals, thieving about 2.5 times per 100 opponent possessions, while Kidd's rate is about 2.1."
How significant is this? Also, how much does teammate quality affect these numbers?
I know you might not be able to answer these, but I think these are very important to be able to answer to completely understand what's going on in the numbers.
"If we use steals as a proxy for forced turnovers, the Kidd trade won't help them at all - Harris is one of the best in the league at getting steals, thieving about 2.5 times per 100 opponent possessions, while Kidd's rate is about 2.1."
How significant is this? Also, how much does teammate quality affect these numbers?
I know you might not be able to answer these, but I think these are very important to be able to answer to completely understand what's going on in the numbers.
As you guessed, I don't have numbers off the top of my head for this. My point is less that I'm confident Dallas will be worse off by the switch and more that when your problem is forcing TOs, trading one of the best thieves in the league certainly won't make you better. I think that analysis stands regardless of how significant the steals per 100 defensive possessions stat is.
Though one thing I can't believe I forgot about in the discussion of Harris' turnover forcing abilities is the charges he takes. I'm not sure what he's at this year (and if he's down, maybe that and his missed time is part of the reason for the TO drop), but 82games.com showed that last year he was second in the NBA with 77 charges taken on the year, so add another 1 forced TO per game to that equation (Kidd wasn't on that list for last year, and 2 years ago Kidd did not even appear on the top charge takers list for NJN, with Richard Jefferson clocking in at #3 on the team with 24 all year - so Kidd is somewhere less than about 0.25 per game).
In other words, I can't really see Kidd helping force more turnovers than Harris, and Dallas' shot defense is already very good. If it's a wash there (if not giving the nod to Harris) then that won't change much. Kidd certainly fouls less than Harris, who has always been on the high end (although I'm not convinced that's necessarily a bad thing - it might be a result of him trying to take the charge or otherwise fouling at the right time), and Kidd will help their defensive rebounding. But he doesn't help them in their big problem area on the defensive end, which is responsible for their dip this year from a projected 61 win team to a projected 52-53 win team - and in fact, he might make it worse.
Joined: 23 Mar 2007 Posts: 132 Location: Charleston, SC
Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 12:47 am Post subject:
Ben F. wrote:
As you guessed, I don't have numbers off the top of my head for this. My point is less that I'm confident Dallas will be worse off by the switch and more that when your problem is forcing TOs, trading one of the best thieves in the league certainly won't make you better. I think that analysis stands regardless of how significant the steals per 100 defensive possessions stat is.
Well I just want to make sure we don't assume Harris is better at forcing TOs based on these numbers alone. Which, again, brings me back to my original question. Scouting aside, can we really be confident that Harris' TO rate is really better than Kidd's based on their situations?
Dallas got knocked out in the first round last year -- mainly because they had no answer for Baron Davis. Devin Harris's Opponent Counterpart PER for that series was 26.2! And, this year, the Mavs again have the prospect of playoff match ups with Baron Davis, Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Chauncey Billups. Doesn't it make sense for them to acquire one of the best defensive point guards ever and a proven playoff performer?
Since the "panic" headlines are originating from ESPN, perhaps some of the criticism is due to Kidd and Shaq having mediocre PERs this season. But, Jason Kidd's impact cannot be teased out of individual stats -- especially a one-size-fits-all metric. Compare Kidd to Jerry Stackhouse, one of the other players mentioned in the trade proposals. Kidd' career PER is 18.7 compared to 17.0 for Stackhouse. Fairly similar. But, Stackouse's career was spent racking up "impressive" scoring volume for awful teams, while Kidd is generally considered one of the all time greats at his position. I can't imagine anyone thinking Kidd and Stackhouse's careers have had similar impact.
More than "advanced" statistics based on box score stats, I think what coaches and general managers are interested in is impact on team performance. NBA decision makers may not be look at adjusted plus/minus directly, but these numbers are probaly a good approximation of how Kidd is perceived by GMs, and they put his PERs in perspective.
Five+ seasons, 9,198 minutes: adjusted plus/minus of -3.8.
Of course, the deal is really Kidd for Devin Harfis and Harris is a very nice, young player. He is still improving and a steep price to pay in any trade. But, is he ready to take on all those elite point guards in the playoffs? I think that's a legitimate question.
The deal boils down to: does Jason Kidd significantly improve the Mavs chances at a championship or two? I think he does. Kidd brings exactly what the Mavs need in the playoffs. Confidence. Poise. Leadership. Experience. Defense. And a team first mind-set. Panic probably is the appropriate word here, in that Kidd is not going to panic and go into the tank in the face of a tough playoff series the way the Mavs have in the past few post seasons.
Whether or not these deals works out for Phoenix and Dallas , I would be very reluctant to accuse Cuban, Avery Johnson, Steve Kerr and Mike D'Antoni of"panicking."
Referring to Kidd as "one of the best defensive point guards ever" is silly in the context of this discussion. They are not getting the career of Jason Kidd, they're getting the decline phase. This version of Kidd has his definite strengths on the defensive end, but guarding quick PGs is not one of them. Do you really think Kidd will be an elite defender against Nash, Parker, or Paul at this stage of his career? I consider it more likely that he'll get absolutely torched in such a match-up, and those are the EXACT kind of matchups that the Mavs will face in the playoffs. _________________ No books - no articles - no website.
Just opinions.
Joined: 23 Mar 2007 Posts: 132 Location: Charleston, SC
Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 10:34 am Post subject:
Of course Kidd is going to have some sort "decline" compared to his career numbers, but that doesn't mean we should use this year's numbers as a substitute, either. As I tried to allude to before, how much of his poor(er) performance can be attributed to the team he was playing on?
Of course Kidd is going to have some sort "decline" compared to his career numbers, but that doesn't mean we should use this year's numbers as a substitute, either. As I tried to allude to before, how much of his poor(er) performance can be attributed to the team he was playing on?
Well, I'm talking specifically about man-to-man defense here, which isn't really captured well in the stats. Kidd isn't going to be posted up by any PGs, for sure, but he simply can't keep up with the burners he's going to have to guard in the playofs in the West. I'm not talking numbers, I'm talking naked eye scouting - I consider this obvious to anyone who watches Kidd at this stage of his career. Do you disagree? (I ask seriously, not sarcastically - I'm not exactly a pro scout, but to my eye Kidd's foot speed has gone from decent to decidedly below-average at this stage. Offensively he can control the tempo himself, but defensively he'll have to keep up with guys half his size).
If anyone with more scouting experience can weigh in on Kidd's defensive contributions this season, that would be much appreciated... _________________ No books - no articles - no website.
Just opinions.
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