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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1888
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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 Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2008 6:53 am Post subject: Lakers + Gasol |
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This seems like a huge deal. The Lakes looked like a 55-win team before; now they look like a 61-win team. That's very iffy, of course, depending mainly on Bynum's recovery. I just inserted Gasol's numbers into Kwame's slot, and took 1-3 minutes from other players. If he should return to form, they'd be even better.
Anyone else have a prognostication?
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davis21wylie2121
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 530
Location: Atlanta, GA
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| Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2008 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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I just ran a quick projection (like I did for the C's before the season) using Sportsline's depth chart/injury report. The raw stat inputs were simply their 07-08 numbers to date, and then I adjusted usage to force the Lakers to maintain their to-date poss/game rate. Here's how it sees the rest of the RS playing out:
| Code: | Pos Player G MPG Min ORtg %Pos DRtg Poss PProd
PG Derek Fisher 37 27 999 118.6 17.8 108.4 358 424
PG Jordan Farmar 37 21 777 112.1 19.2 106.2 299 335
SG Kobe Bryant 37 38 1406 113.2 30.7 104.2 866 980
SG Sasha Vujacic 29 15 435 123.5 17.1 108.7 149 184
SG Coby Karl 7 4 28 86.8 22.5 101.1 13 11
SF Luke Walton 32 23 746 102.2 15.3 106.9 228 233
SF V. Radmanovic 27 18 486 104.2 16.6 108.0 162 169
SF Trevor Ariza 12 17 204 120.9 15.0 102.7 61 74
PF Lamar Odom 33 36 1188 106.7 17.2 104.5 409 437
PF Ronny Turiaf 34 17 578 115.3 16.4 103.3 190 219
C Pau Gasol 31 37 1147 114.7 22.2 110.5 510 585
C DJ Mbenga 4 8 32 75.8 15.9 100.4 10 8
C Chris Mihm 30 13 390 90.8 19.0 104.7 149 135
C Andrew Bynum 16 29 464 127.5 17.1 101.3 159 203
37 8880 3562 3996
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With Bynum (and some others) injured, the Gasol trade actually just helps them tread water until he's back. They were at 111.0 ORtg/105.2 DRtg before the deal (pyth=0.681), and over the final 37 games they're projected to 112.2 ORtg/106.1 DRtg (pyth=0.685). However, they're going to be a beast once Bynum is healthy, especially if it sends Odom to the 3 and takes minutes away from the unproductive Walton. |
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94by50
Joined: 01 Jan 2006
Posts: 460
Location: Phoenix
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| Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2008 1:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Only that this will help the Lakers tread water until Bynum's return (and I hope he comes back at full strength). |
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tHe_pEsTiLeNcE
Joined: 09 Aug 2006
Posts: 102
Location: where you aren't
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| Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2008 5:47 pm Post subject: |
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According to wages of wins numbers they should tear it up when healthy
Fisher - .104 wp48
Kobe - .240 wp48
Odom - .118 wp48
Bynum - .400 wp48
Gasol - .153 wp48
Heheh, so according to wages of wins this lineup should have a 101.5% winning percentage when it's in the game.
Of course this is the same metric that says Tyson Chandler is better than Lebron James, Dennis Rodman was better than MJ, and Marcus Camby is better than Kobe Bryant so take it with about 5 tablespoons of salt.
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jemagee
Joined: 05 Nov 2005
Posts: 98
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| Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 4:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Ric Bucher (believability factor, -50%) it's possible that Bynum could be out a bit longer (possibly the rest of the season)...if I"m the lakers, and mitch kupchak, i do not rush the kid back... |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1888
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:48 am Post subject: |
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B-R.com's player Game Log pages rate individual games, a Game Score (last item on the line).
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pgl.cgi?player=gasolpa01&year=2008
In 10 of 39 games for the Grizz, Gasol had a GmSc > 20.
Including last night, he's 5 for 8 as a Laker.
Other pertinent stats: | Code: | team eFG% TS% Pt/36 Rb/36 As/36
Mem .504 .566 18.5 8.6 2.9
LAL .651 .691 23.2 7.8 2.7 |
Taking the same FGA/min in LA; also more FT and Stl, fewer TO. Just playing better, whatever the reason.
Don't know if this means much: vs the worst-rebounding team in the NBA, the Suns (also Shaq's debut), Gasol had 3 boards in 34 min. He's listed as the C. Lakes outrebounded by 13.
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cherokee_ACB
Joined: 22 Mar 2006
Posts: 111
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| Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:40 am Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: |
Other pertinent stats: | Code: | team eFG% TS% Pt/36 Rb/36 As/36
Mem .504 .566 18.5 8.6 2.9
LAL .651 .691 23.2 7.8 2.7 |
Taking the same FGA/min in LA; also more FT and Stl, fewer TO. Just playing better, whatever the reason.
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Better teammates? He's gone from 58% assisted baskets to 73% now in LA. He's being used more as an inside finisher (from 45% to 55% inside shots) rather than as the first team option. |
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basketballvalue
Joined: 07 Mar 2006
Posts: 95
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| Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | B-R.com's player Game Log pages rate individual games, a Game Score (last item on the line).
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pgl.cgi?player=gasolpa01&year=2008
In 10 of 39 games for the Grizz, Gasol had a GmSc > 20.
Including last night, he's 5 for 8 as a Laker.
Other pertinent stats: | Code: | team eFG% TS% Pt/36 Rb/36 As/36
Mem .504 .566 18.5 8.6 2.9
LAL .651 .691 23.2 7.8 2.7 |
Taking the same FGA/min in LA; also more FT and Stl, fewer TO. Just playing better, whatever the reason.
Don't know if this means much: vs the worst-rebounding team in the NBA, the Suns (also Shaq's debut), Gasol had 3 boards in 34 min. He's listed as the C. Lakes outrebounded by 13. |
Gasol's page on basketballvalue.com also shows that he's playing well for the Lakers. His simple +/- rating for them is 18.3. Most of the opponents haven't been of the quality of the Suns, but it's still impressive. The Laker unit he's played on the most (Bryant, Fisher, Gasol, Odom, and Radmanovic) has a unit +/- rating of 15.57 over 163 minutes. They didn't fare as well against the Suns' starters, though, losing 26-23 after 17 possessions each.
Incidentally, he had a good net +/- rating for Memphis as well...
Thanks,
Aaron
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1888
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 11:10 am Post subject: |
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This has been quite a one-sided trade. Moreso than pre-trade numbers would suggest.
Per-36 rates: | Code: | tm G Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk T
Gasol,Pau
Mem 39 37 .555 19.3 8.6 2.4 .4 2.0 1.4 29.4
LAL 16 35 .627 25.8 8.8 2.9 .7 1.5 1.8 38.4
Brown,Kwame
LAL 23 22 .489 9.0 9.6 1.8 1.2 2.7 1.4 18.8
Mem 9 14 .380 3.7 8.4 2.4 1.2 3.2 1.2 12.2
Crittenton,Javaris
LAL 22 8 .537 16.4 4.5 3.4 1.5 4.7 .0 19.1
Mem 13 16 .448 11.9 5.3 1.5 .5 1.9 .3 16.7 |
Maybe it's just easier to shoot in LA ?
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