Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 9:22 pm Post subject: TJ Ford or Jose Calderon?
Toronto Raptors fans (and I'm one of them) are torn between TJ Ford and Jose Calderon. Statistically:
Code:
Jose Calderon TJ Ford
eFG% .546 .447
ToR 10.3 12.4
AsR 36.3 32.0
PER 19.1 18.2
Pts/40 16.8 18.7
Calderon has the edge on most important categories, although defensively, TJ seems to be a better player than Calderon, except against big guards that can post him up, like Kidd and Billups.
Sam Mitchell has already anointed Ford as the starter even before training camp started. A lot of Raptors fans think this is political (Calderon is a free agent at the end of the season, and TJ was signed to a big contract at the expense of Charlie Villanueva).
A few teams have been trying to acquire Calderon to no avail, like the Cavaliers (they offered Varejao), the Hawks (they offered Childress), and the Celtics (not known what they offered), but Colangelo has rebuffed them, as the asking price keeps increasing with the improved performance (lately runner-up in MVP voting during EuroBasket2007).
The fans are split, and I need an outsider opinion. Who's the better player and what is a fair value for Calderon in a trade?
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1705 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 7:38 am Post subject:
Since Ford started 71/75 games, while Calderon started just 11/78, there's a good chance Ford's 30 minutes (per game) had more import than his backup's 21 mpg.
I estimate Ford's competition (and teammates) were 78% starters, Calderon's only 53%. Quite possibly Ford played virtually none of Tor's garbage minutes, while Jose played virtually all of them. Factoring this in, I have these adjusted rates vs the typical 67% starters:
Code:
per36 rates G Min TS% sco reb ast Stl TO T eW eW36
Ford,T.J. 75 30 .508 18.3 4.2 9.1 1.8 4.0 29.0 7.0 9.0
Calderon 78 21 .588 15.0 2.8 6.9 1.3 2.2 24.0 3.6 6.4
Note that while Jose shot .099 better in eFG%, TJ got to the line about 50% more often (both shot 82%FT), so their eff%(TS%) are just .080 apart.
eW36 is just eWins projected to 36mpg X 80G.
Their T rates suggest Calderon is a capable starter, while Ford is a borderline 'star'. Jose scores just as well as the SG (AParker), but with passing skills. Yet their season minutes fill just one position, and they're 2 of the 3 best Raptors. _________________ 40% of all statistics are wrong.
Both players also played far, far better last season that any other time in their careers. So the answer to "who's better" is probably "whichever one turns out to not have been a fluke."
I think Calderon was clearly the more effective player last season. However, Bryan Colangelo is probably more interested in potential than current performance and he seems to feel Ford has more "upside." And, as you say, Toronto has a larger investment in Ford (you have to show confidence in a player who is BYC.)
John Hollinger wrote:
Both players also played far, far better last season that any other time in their careers. So the answer to "who's better" is probably "whichever one turns out to not have been a fluke."
I don't see that. T.J. Ford was just 23 years old last season and had missed an entire year with a severe injury. It's not surprising that he would produce significantly better numbers -- especially considering that he was in a new offensive system which was, to a great extent, built specifically for his style of play.
Calderon was a second year player, whose first NBA season started very well, until tailing off following a back and ankle problems (and possibly exhaustion.) He seemed more confident and more comfortable as he adapted to the league this season. His continued improvement didn't seem "flukish" at all.
I expect both players to continue to develop for four or five more years.
My best guess is that Calderon (who seems to be an exceptionally hard worker) will open up the performance gap somewhat (especially with his three-point shooting) and that Ford will be the one who is traded next summer and that the asking price will be quite high.
Both players also played far, far better last season that any other time in their careers. So the answer to "who's better" is probably "whichever one turns out to not have been a fluke."
while I agree with the first part of your post, you have to remember the age factor and that TJ Ford missed an entire season with his injury.
Calderon’s improvement is not all that surprising actually. He led Spain to an Olympic title and near got them to be the Champions of Europe.
As an aside, last season, Calderon was 2nd best in the entire league at converting layups (only behind Tony Parker) and 10th best at converting jump shots.
- In games that Calderon played at least 30 minutes the Raptors record was 8-2. In games that Calderon played at least 35 minutes the Raptors record was 6-1.
- In games that Ford played at least 30 minutes the Raptors record was 22-25. In games that Ford played at least 35 minutes the Raptors record was 6-8.
- In games that Ford took 14 or more shots the Raptors record was 8-16. In games that Ford took under 10 shots the Raptors record was an amazing 16-2.
To me I don't know how anyone can look at this and not come to two conclusions. One that the Raptors are a much better team with Calderon at the helm and two that Ford taking a lot of shots hurts the team. That 16-2 record is actually shockingly revealing whereas the Raps record with Calderon's field goal attempts reveal basically nothing other than the team wins both when he shoots a lot and when he shoots very little.
- In games that Calderon took 10 or more shots the Raptors record was 11-5 and 5-1 when he took 13 or more shots. In games that Calderon took under 10 shots the Raptors record was 35-31.
If anything this shows that the Raptors are actually better when Calderon shoots a lot. In my opinion this is because Jose's shots generally come in the flow of the offense and Ford's shots generally do not.
I know when I'm playing basketball and I'm playing with a point guard who takes shots when they come I'm fine with it but when I play with a point guard who's constantly dribbling around trying to get his own shot and beat his man off the dribble everyone gets a little annoyed and everyone's effort running down the court suffers and everyone's effort trying to get open suffers because either they don't think they will get the ball anyway or they know they're just going to stand around while their point guard tries to go one on one. We've all played with both kinds of point guards.
In my opinion this is the difference between Calderon and Ford.
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1705 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 7:51 pm Post subject:
Well then, clearly the Raptors need a new coach, who recognizes these obvious advantages that Calderon offers as a starter. Is there anything but coincidence in the fact that other Tor starters shot very well, having Ford in the lineup with them?
Since Ford is the worst shooter among Tor starters, is it a bit surprising that the opponent thrives when he takes more shots than usual? This is a standard strategy, forcing the weakest shooter to shoot.
It would also help the discussion if anyone can describe the situations in which Ford has to go >35 minutes. Is it because the game is close? or the opponent is superior? so maybe the Raps are less likely to win, whether it's TJ or Jose at the point?
Maybe Mitchell really is a worse coach than any one of us; but I really doubt it. Picking arbitrary cutoffs (30 min., 14 shots, etc.) and how the W-L breaks down is unconvincing. I'll go ahead and say "meaningless". _________________ 40% of all statistics are wrong.
From the outside it looks like a close call between them regular season, but in the playoffs Mitchell cut Ford's minutes by 23% and increased Calderon's by 17%. Matchup with Jason Kidd but still unusual for a starting PG to be cut to under 23 minutes a game in the playoffs, less than his backup (was injury involved in last 2 games or just coaching decision after losing 3 of 4?). Ford stepped up his shooting but gave out less assists than Calderon. Ford on court +/- in playoffs of -10 a game, while Calderon's time was only -4.
i don't know how good a coach Mitchell is. I don't think he was coach of the year though. Sagarin rating gave Toronto the easiest schedule in the league. Third worst record of playoff teams against top 16 and worst against top 10.
Will see how team does this season and how Mitchell handles the PG issue regular season and playoffs if they get there.
Last edited by Mountain on Mon Oct 22, 2007 9:33 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1705 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 8:06 am Post subject:
Mike P wrote:
- In games that Ford took 14 or more shots the Raptors record was 8-16. In games that Ford took under 10 shots the Raptors record was an amazing 16-2.
.
Hmm, well when Ford took >18 shots (FGA), they were 5-3 (TS% .534 in these games).
Taking 14-17 shots, team went 3-11 (TS% still .531)
These 11 losses were to Phx, Den, Sea, NJ, Uta, Sac, GS, SA, and Dal, all on the road. Also to Chi and SA at home.
When taking exactly 13 shots, team was 4-5 (.474)
TJ taking 11 or 12 shots, Tor was 14-4; losses to Dal and Mil, and at Chi and Det. He shot .537 in these games.
With exactly 10 shots, team was 2-7 (.498 TS)
Fewer than 10 FGA, they were 15-2, and he shot .427. Losses at NJ and Det. Of 15 wins, 5 were on the road, and 5 vs playoff teams.
Can any conclusion be reached from this breakdown (other than that you may group his FGA-games any way you wish, depending on the conclusion you want)? Well, the coach appears to use him more against the better teams and on the road. He shoots better when he shoots >10 shots. _________________ 40% of all statistics are wrong.
Well, 11 games isn't a huge dataset, evinced by his total 5/9 3FG shooting. But he does seem to do better as a starter; even his FT% was better.
In late Jan., Ford missed 4 games. When he returned, he came off the bench for 4 more games. The Raps scored 119, 103, 122, and 113 (going 4-0) in these.
In this 8-game stretch that Calderon started, the team went 7-1. Only 2 of the 8 games were on the road, and only 1 was vs a playoff-bound team (the Wiz, minus Jamison).
These breakdowns seem to corroborate a couple of my assumptions:
-- Calderon got more minutes vs lesser opponents.
-- Both he and Ford should be starting for somebody.
-- The multipliers I assigned based on starter/sub minutes probably scales their effectiveness about right. _________________ 40% of all statistics are wrong.
Both Ford and Calderon were considerably weaker individual performers against playoff level teams in regular season according to splits at hoopsstats.com. Not unusual to see a gap but their's were pretty big while many of the good players on successful teams I check play better opponents as well as weaker ones and in some cases they rise up to the challenge- it is a key part of making them better player/better teams.
Ford won his counterpart matchup with Kidd in playoffs but not even close on the leading the team part.
In his 3 healthy seasons he has been rock steady at winning 50-52% of his time on the court. Decent but not impressive and no sign of growth even in the Raptors cinderella year. Both PGs get at least one more year to show growth as leaders. Maybe one will make a stronger claim.
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1705 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 7:59 am Post subject:
Mountain wrote:
Both Ford and Calderon were considerably weaker individual performers against playoff level teams in regular season according to splits at hoopsstats.com. ..
I don't see individual splits vs 'playoff teams' per se, but against teams better and worse than .500 (no mention of 41-41 teams). Anyway, they say 9 of Calderon's 10 starts were vs 'bad' teams (my terminology).
Turning their per-game stats into per40 rates, here are breakdowns vs 'good' and 'bad' teams:
Code:
Ford Min Pts Reb Ast Stl TO TS% FGA FTA
vs good 30.6 16.9 4.2 10.3 1.7 3.8 .475 15.3 5.6
vs bad 29.6 19.9 4.2 11.6 1.9 4.5 .541 16.2 4.9
Calderon Min Pts Reb Ast Stl TO TS% FGA FTA
vs good 17.9 14.5 3.8 9.6 1.3 2.9 .513 13.2 2.2
vs bad 22.9 16.8 3.1 9.3 1.6 2.8 .614 11.9 4.0
Calderon was given an extra 5 MPG (+28%) vs sub-.500 opponents, responding with +.101 in his TS%. He almost doubled his trips to the line vs the lower tier, total scoring attempts/40 about the same, shot better from the field and from the line.
Ford, if anything, seemed more complacent vs the weaker teams, getting fewer FTA and more TO. He too shot a lot better, but not so dramatically.
The results are a bit scrambled. Calderon got a big boost in minutes when Ford went down, coinciding with a creampuff stretch in the schedule. Does he respond favorably to starting, or to the weaker competition?
Outside of that, a good example of a bench player whose stats 'look better' than the starter, but who probably isn't better (against equal competition). _________________ 40% of all statistics are wrong.
It is a close call between them regular season, but in the playoffs Mitchell cut Ford's minutes by 23% and increased Calderon's by 17%. Matchup with Jason Kidd but still unusual for a starting PG to be cut to under 23 minutes a game in the playoffs, less than his backup (was injury involved in last 2 games or just coaching decision after losing 3 of 4?). Ford stepped up his shooting but gave out less assists than Calderon. Ford on court +/- in playoffs of -10 a game, while Calderon's time was only -4.
Ford was injured early in Game 5 when Vince Carter fell on him. Mitchell followed his usual rotation pattern up until this point. _________________ No books - no articles - no website.
Just opinions.
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