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How to set up an SRS spreadsheet?

 
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supersub15



Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 273

PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 11:24 am    Post subject: How to set up an SRS spreadsheet? Reply with quote

Trying to wrap my head around applying this SRS explanation to an Excel spreadsheet.

Has anyone done it before? Thanks for any help.
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DSMok1



Joined: 05 Aug 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 12:07 pm    Post subject: Re: How to set up an SRS spreadsheet? Reply with quote

supersub15 wrote:
Trying to wrap my head around applying this SRS explanation to an Excel spreadsheet.

Has anyone done it before? Thanks for any help.


I've done it several times. I have a current one ranking college football teams here: https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0Bx1NfCUslJwxNzhiZTA3MTItOWYxMi00M2VmLThmZjctYjQzODc5MGEwMjAz&sort=name&layout=list&num=50.

There are a number of ways to implement it--this is one of the better ways I've found. If you can't read the xlsx format, let me know.
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supersub15



Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 273

PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 12:18 pm    Post subject: Re: How to set up an SRS spreadsheet? Reply with quote

DSMok1 wrote:
supersub15 wrote:
Trying to wrap my head around applying this SRS explanation to an Excel spreadsheet.

Has anyone done it before? Thanks for any help.


I've done it several times. I have a current one ranking college football teams here: https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0Bx1NfCUslJwxNzhiZTA3MTItOWYxMi00M2VmLThmZjctYjQzODc5MGEwMjAz&sort=name&layout=list&num=50.

There are a number of ways to implement it--this is one of the better ways I've found. If you can't read the xlsx format, let me know.


Thanks, but Google can't find it:
Sorry, the page (or document) you have requested is not available.

Edit: removed the sort part. This works: https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0Bx1NfCUslJwxNzhiZTA3MTItOWYxMi00M2VmLThmZjctYjQzODc5MGEwMjAz


Last edited by supersub15 on Wed Sep 29, 2010 12:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
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DSMok1



Joined: 05 Aug 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 12:20 pm    Post subject: Re: How to set up an SRS spreadsheet? Reply with quote

supersub15 wrote:
DSMok1 wrote:
supersub15 wrote:
Trying to wrap my head around applying this SRS explanation to an Excel spreadsheet.

Has anyone done it before? Thanks for any help.


I've done it several times. I have a current one ranking college football teams here: https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0Bx1NfCUslJwxNzhiZTA3MTItOWYxMi00M2VmLThmZjctYjQzODc5MGEwMjAz&sort=name&layout=list&num=50.

There are a number of ways to implement it--this is one of the better ways I've found. If you can't read the xlsx format, let me know.


Thanks, but Google can't find it:
Sorry, the page (or document) you have requested is not available.


Trying again:

https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0Bx1NfCUslJwxNzhiZTA3MTItOWYxMi00M2VmLThmZjctYjQzODc5MGEwMjAz&hl=en
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supersub15



Joined: 21 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks. When you have a minute, can you over some of the main fields?
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 12:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

supersub15 wrote:
Thanks. When you have a minute, can you over some of the main fields?


The basic concept is this:

Take each game played (that's the lower table). Assign a value for the winning and losing team, initially not adjusted for opponent. The upper table has a list of teams. The first column (Eff 1) simply sums up that team's unadjusted value, using sumproduct to cull through the games and get the total for the specific team.

Then, down at the lower table, each team is assigned a second value for the game, adjusting by the team strength as initially estimated by Eff 1. (That's Iteration 1 Team1 and Team2, and Iteration 2 EM2W and EM2L, or effective margin 2 winner and loser.) Then Eff 2 up above sums the effective margin from iteration 2. And the process continues, until there is no significant change from iteration to iteration.

I limit myself to 20 iterations in general, though by the end of the season with a ton of games there can still be a slight change from iteration 19 to 20.

I'm sure the same process could be done with a macro, as well.
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The Specialist



Joined: 23 Apr 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No offense, but that is much more complicated than it should be. Go by the library and check out Mathletics, there is a section on creating Power Rankings that lays out the easiest way to do this in Excel.
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Specialist wrote:
No offense, but that is much more complicated than it should be. Go by the library and check out Mathletics, there is a section on creating Power Rankings that lays out the easiest way to do this in Excel.


I'm sure that was complicated, but at least it's easy to understand. Any hints on the Excel "best practice" that you are talking about? What kinds of formulas would one use?
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The Specialist



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 11:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey DSMok1-

I have SRS set up "my way" in Excel for NBA and NFL, but I actually tried to set up using your NCAA FB numbers and ran into an issue. I use the SOLVER, and it can only handle 200 variables. However, with there being 121 teams in NCAA FB, it's not possible using my methods.
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 30, 2010 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Specialist wrote:
Hey DSMok1-

I have SRS set up "my way" in Excel for NBA and NFL, but I actually tried to set up using your NCAA FB numbers and ran into an issue. I use the SOLVER, and it can only handle 200 variables. However, with there being 121 teams in NCAA FB, it's not possible using my methods.


I've used the solver methods also, but I like the "obviousness" of the all-in-front of you approach.

I'd love for Solver to handle more than 200 variables!!
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Rhuidean



Joined: 11 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 30, 2010 10:43 pm    Post subject: . Reply with quote

Never implemented this before myself before, but I coded it up in Octave

EDIT: Fixed a few typos in the comments, here is the new version (http://pastebin.com/hSu5D5bd)

Here is a sample run:


octave:33> clear;srs
R =

0.94568
1.79588
0.10213
1.96496
2.06186

octave:34> M
M =

0 0 1 0 1
0 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0

octave:35> V
V =

0.22436
1.14089
-0.21310
1.36633
1.74663

octave:36> N
N = 5
octave:37> G
G = 3
octave:39> Matchups_vec
Matchups_vec =

2 4
1 5
3 1



So I have an N=5 team league, with 3 games played thus far. The vector V gives the point margin for the 5 teams. The Matchups_vec and the matrix M tell the same thing; we've seen a game with team 2 versus team 4, team 1 versus team 5, and team 3 versus team 1.

Running the code then gives the ratings specified by the vector R for each team.

If you don't use Matlab/Octave, you can probably convert the code I wrote into your preferred language.

Feel free to download the above and play around with it. Let me know if you catch any bugs (or have any questions.)

And of course, as you can see from the code I wrote, you can try any values of N (number of teams), G (number of games), Matchups_vec, etc you like.
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DSMok1



Joined: 05 Aug 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 01, 2010 12:14 pm    Post subject: Re: . Reply with quote

Rhuidean wrote:
Never implemented this before myself before, but I coded it up in Octave


Nice!

On the one I implemented, though, I have the ability to adjust each game differently--for instance, using curve for the "value" of the point margin instead of the actual points. (In other words, giving a minimum value for each win and a maximum value to prevent blowouts from over-weighting things.)

How hard would it be to implement something like that? I think it would require a totally different approach.
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Rhuidean



Joined: 11 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 01, 2010 1:38 pm    Post subject: . Reply with quote

Is that just a preprocessing step? So rather than using the team's actual point margin (which is a sum of the point margins over the games it played), you transform each of the game point margins in some way (for example, capping it somehow, transforming it to +1 for win, -1 for loss, 0 for tie?)

Or is it something a bit different from preprocessing?

If it is just preprocessing, then you'd probably want to write a bit of code that handles that step first, before you hand it off.
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JoshEngleman



Joined: 27 Dec 2007
Posts: 1

PostPosted: Sun Oct 17, 2010 12:49 pm    Post subject: Re: How to set up an SRS spreadsheet? Reply with quote

DSMok1 wrote:
supersub15 wrote:
Trying to wrap my head around applying this SRS explanation to an Excel spreadsheet.

Has anyone done it before? Thanks for any help.


I've done it several times. I have a current one ranking college football teams here: https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0Bx1NfCUslJwxNzhiZTA3MTItOWYxMi00M2VmLThmZjctYjQzODc5MGEwMjAz&sort=name&layout=list&num=50.

There are a number of ways to implement it--this is one of the better ways I've found. If you can't read the xlsx format, let me know.


I'm trying to replicate your spreadsheet but I'm having trouble with one section. I have no idea what the "cubic" section is for, nor where those numbers are coming from. The first Eff margin column looks up the Margin in the cubic table, but I have no clue what those numbers represent. If you could help me out, that would be great.
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Sun Oct 17, 2010 3:49 pm    Post subject: Re: How to set up an SRS spreadsheet? Reply with quote

JoshEngleman wrote:


I'm trying to replicate your spreadsheet but I'm having trouble with one section. I have no idea what the "cubic" section is for, nor where those numbers are coming from. The first Eff margin column looks up the Margin in the cubic table, but I have no clue what those numbers represent. If you could help me out, that would be great.


Oh--the cubic was a curve I generated (elsewhere) as to how much each point margin "means" in a predictive sense--so it's peripheral to the SRS itself. Basically, if a team won by 45 points, how many points are they really better? Less than 45, in a predictive sense. A true SRS is 1-to-1 (no cap or attenuation), so when looking up 45, you get 45 as the initial effective margin (not accounting for the opponent).
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